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00:00Well, for some analysis on what is happening in Lebanon, I'm very pleased to welcome to
00:04the programme now, Maha Yahya. She is the director of the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle
00:10East Centre. Welcome to you. Thanks for talking to France 24.
00:15Thank you for having me. Good afternoon.
00:17Good afternoon. We played a clip a little bit earlier on in the programme of Naeem Qasim,
00:22who spoke earlier today, the deputy head of Hezbollah. I wonder what you made of his claims
00:29that the group is ready for this long conflict with Israel, despite the devastating attacks
00:36over the past week that have killed Hassan Nasrallah. And what you made of the fact that
00:40he didn't announce a replacement for Nasrallah during that speech?
00:44Well, two things. One is, frankly, it was what I expected in terms of rhetoric. It's
00:53very difficult at this point for anybody who speaks after the assassination of Hassan
00:58Nasrallah to say anything different. They have to, you know, boost the morale, boost
01:05the troops, say that we're still fine. We're still able to resist. We haven't lost it.
01:13We haven't lost everything as is being presented. Also, we will not disconnect from Gaza. At
01:19the end of the day, the Israelis announced that they targeted Hassan Nasrallah specifically
01:24because he did not agree to dissociate between the Lebanon front and the Gaza front. So it's
01:32almost impossible for anyone who comes after Hassan Nasrallah, particularly Naeem Qasim,
01:39to kind of pull back from that particular level. That's on the one hand. So the speech
01:47in that sense, I saw it more as a moral boost to say that we're here. Now, are they ready
01:52in terms of if a ground invasion should happen? They probably are. We have no way of knowing
01:58how significantly, how much damage they've had, how much damage has been done to their
02:06military capacities. What we do know is that a large number of their members of Hezbollah,
02:14both the military arms and the political slash civil arms, have been injured or killed.
02:22Beyond that, it's very hard to tell. I think the next few days will give us a better indication
02:27should there be a ground invasion. But they are probably ready at that front. In terms
02:32of the announcement of a replacement, my understanding is there are internal disagreements as to
02:39who should be replacing Hassan Nasrallah. In any case, whoever does replace him, it's
02:46I mean, Hassan Nasrallah, as far as the movement is concerned, but also the broader axis of
02:52resistance, left very big shoes to fill. It'll be very difficult to find someone who had
02:59that kind of pull, that kind of charisma with his own constituents, not just in Lebanon,
03:07but far beyond Lebanon.
03:09Indeed, and there are people out there who say, look, the killing of Nasrallah is such
03:14a significant moment, bigger than the killing of Osama bin Laden, bigger than the killing
03:20of Qasem Soleimani. Is it for you on that scale? Just give us a sense of the vacuum
03:28now left by the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah.
03:33The man was iconic in so many ways. He was able to blend political leadership with military
03:39acumen and a kind of this religious halo. The fact that he lost his son in while resisting
03:50Israel in an operation also added to this halo. So he was seen as a larger than life
03:58figure. He was, I mean, what he said, people believed. Many people remember the moment
04:06in 2006 during Israel's war on Lebanon, when during his speech, he said, watch what's going
04:13to happen now. Look at the sea. And there was an attack against an Israeli ship by Hezbollah.
04:21So there has been this, if you want, it's not a cult, but a kind of a build up around
04:29him, around his persona, around his figure. And that would be very difficult to fill.
04:35Plus, as I said, he was able to bring together the religious background, the kind of cultural
04:43background, and blend it with both a political standing as well as a military understanding.
04:52It's also very difficult to find somebody with all of those qualities. So whoever comes
04:57after him will not have the same credibility and the same kind of pull with the broader
05:05Shia or Hezbollah population in Lebanon, but also, I think, far beyond. He had very personal
05:12relationships also with the Ansarullah, the Houthi movement in Yemen, with the popular
05:18mobilization forces in Iraq, with many of the groups in Syria. So there was something
05:25very personal about him, I think, also that makes it a very big shoes to fill for Hezbollah,
05:33but more broadly for the members of the Axis of Resistance.
05:39At the same time, many people in the Arab world have not forgiven him for his role in
05:45the conflict in Syria, in Syria in support of Bashar al-Assad. Hezbollah helped the forces
05:56of Bashar al-Assad to lay siege to many towns in Syria. They're responsible for many of
06:02the atrocities. So again, it's a very mixed legacy.
06:06He leaves a complex legacy. Absolutely. There are questions, aren't there now, about Iran
06:11and how it might respond to the killing of Nasrullah over the weekend, the Iranian president
06:16saying that regional countries must stand together to confront Israel. Does that suggest
06:22to you there may be no imminent reaction from Tehran? Because there are people who believe
06:27effectively now Iran has abandoned Hezbollah and what is clearly a moment of need for the
06:34group. I think, honestly, Iran, the message is coming out of Iran right now is that Iran
06:40is going to look out for Iran. Iran has no interest in a regional conflict. It would
06:46like to see Hezbollah save itself to some extent, but it's not about to jump into the
06:51fire on behalf of Hezbollah. All the messages we're hearing that are coming out of different
06:57parts of the Iranian security slash political apparatus seem to be echoing the same line,
07:05more or less. I think there are divisions within Iran. I mean, it's not a monolithic
07:09society either. And within the decision making apparatus, you have divisions also between
07:17those who want to go in and go all out and, you know, attack, help Hezbollah not only
07:23defend itself, but also attack Israel. And those who are saying, no, we need to be careful
07:29because this may drag us into a conflict that we really cannot afford. There are also serious
07:35concerns that the government of Benjamin Netanyahu is very emboldened by the fact that, you know,
07:44one year of carnage in Gaza, it has been able to get away with. It has done what it has
07:50done in Lebanon, including targeting densely populated areas, and therefore that the next
07:56target will be Iran itself and possibly its nuclear weapons. There are already calls for
08:02that, including by the son of the former president of America, Jared Kushner.
08:08Look, there are lots more questions I'd like to ask you. We don't have lots of time. I do
08:11want to ask you briefly about the Lebanese army and the Lebanese government. How big a role can
08:18and should they play in the coming days? It is worth reiterating, for example, that Lebanon
08:25doesn't have a president and hasn't done for some time.
08:29I think they can play a big role. There's already been a call by the prime minister to,
08:35I mean, he's already announced that should a ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel be announced,
08:42and this is an agreement with the Speaker of Parliament, Nabi Berri, they would not have
08:46announced this had there not been at least some implicit agreement by Hezbollah towards this,
08:53that should there be a ceasefire, there would be an implementation of 1701.
08:581701 means the withdrawal of Hezbollah all the way back to Litani, behind Litani,
09:05and there's a commitment to send the Lebanese army immediately to the border areas in larger
09:11numbers, but also to convene Parliament and elect a president immediately. If we are to go
09:18down that road, which I hope we do, for the sake of Lebanon and for the sake of the future, frankly,
09:30if we do go down that road, then there needs to be, the international community has to come in
09:36very quickly and provide significant support, A, to the Lebanese army to be able to increase
09:42its own numbers, but also in terms of the, to the Lebanese state in terms of rebuilding
09:49what has been damaged, and the damage has been extensive across the south and the Bekaa.
09:53Maha Yahya talking to us there. She's from the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Centre.
09:58Thank you very much.
09:59Pleasure. Thank you for having me.