Dismissing de-escalation calls, is Netanyahu 'fusing nat'l security with personal, legal interests'?

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00:00The United States and France, among others, have warned all parties against escalation

00:07in the Middle East.

00:08It came after two hours of Israeli warplanes carrying out strikes on southern Lebanon,

00:13the heaviest on the country since the war in Gaza began.

00:17Israel suggested the attack was preemptive, targeting over 100 rocket launchers that it

00:21claimed were ready to be fired against it.

00:24The tensions rose earlier this week after simultaneous explosions of handheld devices

00:29in Lebanon killed at least 37 people and injured thousands more.

00:33Shirley Sipan reports.

00:37Hours of heavy bombing in southern Lebanon.

00:40The Israeli army says it struck roughly 100 rocket launchers and 1,000 barrels, quote,

00:47ready to be used.

00:48Yet on Friday morning, sirens wailed again on the Israeli side of the border.

00:55Hezbollah is believed to have some 150,000 rockets and missiles.

01:00And it says it will maintain pressure on Israel as long as it continues its war in Gaza.

01:09Iran can send Hezbollah as many weapons as needed.

01:14Hezbollah has access to a whole panel of weapons it did not have in the last war with Israel

01:19in 2006.

01:23After the mass attack on Hezbollah's communication devices, attributed to Israel, which has not

01:29claimed responsibility for it, countries, including Israel's allies, have urged all

01:35parties to de-escalate.

01:36We will continue to stand by Israel's right to defend itself, but we don't want to see

01:43any party escalate this conflict, period.

01:46But Israel's government said it intends to intensify military pressure.

01:53Our goal is to ensure the safe return of Israel's northern communities to their homes.

01:58As time goes by, Hezbollah will pay an increasing price.

02:04Hezbollah's leader said hours earlier his group is ready to fight, including in the

02:10case Israel launches a ground invasion.

02:16We wish they would enter our Lebanese territory.

02:19We wish.

02:20As soon as a tank or vehicle moves, the resistance shells it.

02:25On both sides of the border, villages have been empty for months.

02:30The residents have been displaced to safer areas.

02:34Well, for more, we can speak to Simon Mabon, a lecturer in international relations and

02:39Middle East studies at Lancaster University.

02:41Thank you for speaking to Paris Direct.

02:44In that report, we heard Israel say it's not backing down.

02:48We heard Hezbollah say it's not backing down.

02:50Where do you think this is headed?

02:52Yeah, it's interesting.

02:55We hear global actors suggesting that there needs to be a call to de-escalate tensions,

03:03to really ratchet down what's been happening.

03:05But then if you listen carefully to what Hezbollah has been saying, they are articulating a position

03:11of what they deem to be strength without wanting to escalate further.

03:16We listen carefully to what the Israelis are saying.

03:18They're entering a new phase of conflict, a new strategic part of this war.

03:24So I do worry that whilst there are calls for de-escalation, they're not necessarily

03:29being reproduced on the ground.

03:31Yeah.

03:32And even if Hezbollah is perhaps a little bit more cautious with that acknowledgement,

03:36as you mentioned, there are also all these other Iranian proxies that could maybe step

03:41up and retaliate on their behalf, couldn't they?

03:46Yeah.

03:47I mean, it's a complex environment right now.

03:48We've seen over the past year, across the past few decades, in fact, that the geopolitical

03:54landscape of the Middle East is such that Iran wields a degree of influence.

03:58But these actors, you call them proxy actors, also have their own agendas, their own agency

04:02as well, their own grievances.

04:04So we've seen Hezbollah operating on its own independently in the past.

04:09We've seen the Houthis operating independently.

04:11We've seen the Iraqi PMUs, Hamas, operating independently.

04:15So what we see by that is a complex picture starting to emerge where all it takes is one

04:21group, one set of individuals to have a real sense of anger, animosity at the situation,

04:28which is what makes it such a precarious moment right now and why these calls for de-escalation

04:32are so very important.

04:34Yeah.

04:35What we see in the United States, of course, this is an election year and I don't think

04:38Joe Biden or Donald Trump want to see a wider conflict.

04:43But when we see Israel say a new phase of war, what do you think the consultations will

04:48be between the Biden administration and Benjamin Netanyahu's government?

04:53Well, what I would have hoped the consultations to be is quite bilateral, a good degree of

04:59communication between the State Department and the U.S. and Benjamin Netanyahu and his

05:04cabinet.

05:05The reality, of course, is I'm not convinced that that has been happening.

05:10We're hearing briefs, we're hearing leaks from various places.

05:13Across the U.S. and indeed elsewhere in the world from U.S. officials and others that

05:18suggest that Israel is operating more unilaterally.

05:22It's operating and then informing with limited information.

05:27And that suggests that Israel is operating with the expectation that it can get a retrospective

05:33sign off from the U.S., which, of course, it's been getting for the past year or so,

05:39which is a really disconcerting thing.

05:41I think that the U.S. has got the ability to wield influence.

05:44But as of as of this past few months, it's either choosing not to wield that influence

05:50or indeed we've misunderestimated it and it's not able to wield that influence at all.

05:55And Israel, I mean, I'm wondering from Netanyahu's perspective, how much can the Israeli military

06:03sustain?

06:04And there's a war on Gaza.

06:05There's also all the hostages still in Gaza and the families that are saying do more to

06:11free them.

06:12So what is his situation in terms of how to navigate this this this increasingly complicated

06:18situation?

06:19Well, it's a complicated situation in the sense that his political future is very much

06:23on the line.

06:24And while he's he's embroiled in these conflicts, he's he's essentially safe.

06:30He's free from the criminal charges that are facing him for us as soon as he steps out

06:34of office.

06:35So there's an argument to say that he is perpetuating this conflict or this set of conflicts.

06:40He's refusing to de-escalate, refusing Washington's Washington's overtures to actually de-escalate

06:46to get a ceasefire deal.

06:48He's ignoring Western calls for a de-escalation on its northern border with Lebanon.

06:54And that is a really disconcerting thing.

06:57If we were to see this elsewhere, there would be a lot of global condemnation of, quote

07:01unquote, rogue leaders, of people acting unilaterally.

07:05But that's not happening, of course.

07:07And it worries me.

07:08It worries me that there is someone who is seemingly operating with his own personal

07:15and indeed legal interests right at the heart of it and also fusing that with with national

07:23security and the colossal devastation of life in Gaza, increasingly in the West Bank.

07:32And as we've seen over the past week or so in southern Lebanon, increasingly tense times.

07:37Simon, thank you for your time.

07:38Simon Maben from Lancaster University.

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