Iran reluctant so far to retaliate against Israel after airstrike kills Hezbollah leader

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00:00What are the options now? How might Hezbollah and its backer Iran respond?

00:05Well, it's all very unclear. If we take a look, first of all, at Iran.

00:09Last week at the UN General Assembly, the Iranian president

00:14appeared to be suggesting that he wanted to open a new era

00:18that he might be open to. He'd like to restart negotiations over the nuclear deal,

00:25hoping that sanctions against Iran would end. He said that Iran would not fall into the trap being

00:32laid by Israel of getting involved in a bigger, wider war. That was before the killing of Nasrallah.

00:41There wasn't a lot of open support for the people they sponsor, Hezbollah, in Lebanon at that UN

00:50speech. But now Nasrallah has been killed and there have been noises coming from Iran,

00:58as we just heard there, saying that this will not go unanswered. I think it was the Lebanese

01:04deputy leader, the Hezbollah deputy leader, excuse me, that we heard there.

01:07So it's unclear how they plan to respond. Until now, it has been thought that their calculation

01:13was that it was not worth losing their own assets, their nuclear program into which they

01:21poured billions in a major war with Israel, possibly the US, and that they would hold back.

01:28It's not entirely clear what might happen next from Iran. As far as Hezbollah is concerned,

01:35we heard there they say they're playing the long game, that Israel's claims of the damage it's done

01:42are exaggerated, they shouldn't be given too much credence. The fear within Lebanon,

01:48when you talk to people in Lebanon, is that an already very fractured society

01:54could end up more fragmented. There are already reports of Shia Muslims fleeing southern Lebanon,

02:04which is more or less where the Hezbollah stronghold is, refugees fleeing and being

02:08turned away by Christian and Muslim families who, A, are rather angry with how Hezbollah's

02:14gamble has turned out for their country, and B, fear that these people, some of them might be

02:19armed and that might attract attention from Israel. There is also a fear within Lebanon

02:23that among the many other militia who have grievances towards Hezbollah, that it could

02:29erupt into another civil war. Angela, events in Lebanon over the last two weeks have led to a

02:34significant boost for Netanyahu and his reputation in Israel. Tell us a bit more about that.

02:40Yes, opinion polls show a significant boost, both in the standing of his Likud party,

02:47if there were to be elections today, they would garner the highest number of votes,

02:52not a complete majority, but then nobody would. And he, as Prime Minister, is on 38%,

02:58well ahead of his nearest rival as the most desirable Prime Minister. So this recent activity

03:06on Israel's northern border and in Lebanon has played very well for Benjamin Netanyahu.

03:12Very importantly as well, on Sunday, a key leader of a right-wing party has decided to

03:21join Netanyahu's coalition. He originally was in it, then he left, and now he's decided to come

03:27back. His own party is in dire straits and he says his hawkish views on the war don't really

03:34line up with other opposition parties. That will take Netanyahu's grouping to 68 seats,

03:42and very importantly, it means that the smaller partners within that right-wing coalition,

03:48the very far right-wing partners within that right-wing coalition, will have less leverage.

03:53They can force Netanyahu's hand less because the coalition is now bigger and wider.

04:00So that, plus the UN General Assembly speech, which was extremely feisty from Netanyahu,

04:07has given him a very good week following on the walkie-talkies and the pages.

04:13Angela, thank you for that. Angela Diffley.

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