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  • 9/28/2024

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Transcript
00:00Well, the risk of it has never been higher than at this moment.
00:05Because again, if Hezbollah still has capabilities, we don't know that for sure because the amount
00:12of retaliation that we have seen from Hezbollah in the past few days against attacks that
00:17it has suffered have been relatively weak.
00:21And so we have to see if it's a question of unwillingness or incapability.
00:27But if Hezbollah still has the capability, I think it is more likely to use it in the
00:33coming days than not.
00:36Iran, I agree 100 percent in any scenario, does not want to get involved directly.
00:43It has suffered itself a lot of intelligence failures.
00:49And it's very vulnerable to Israeli offensive capabilities that it simply does not have
00:56the defensive capabilities to protect itself.
00:59And so I think if we are to see a conflagration, it will still be on the Lebanese-Israel border.
01:07But then it would even be difficult, even if Iran wants to hold back, to hold back groups
01:13like the Houthis or the militias in Iraq and Syria.
01:16So the risk is real and it's very high.
01:20And what diplomatic efforts can be made at this stage to prevent further escalation?
01:26Well, look, the Biden administration, along with President Macron, had actually put together
01:33a 20-day pause proposal on the table right before Prime Minister Netanyahu arrived in
01:41New York for his UNGA speech.
01:44And nevertheless, Israel completely ignored it and launched this operation, which I'm
01:52sure the Israelis knew would kill any prospects for a diplomatic settlement.
01:58And at this moment, I think neither Israel nor Hezbollah would have any interest in bringing
02:04down the temperature.
02:06And could the recent development demonstrate that perhaps Washington's sway in the region
02:12may be waning?
02:15Oh, absolutely.
02:17There's no doubt that the Biden administration has completely lost control to the junior
02:23partner here, and the junior partner is using the United States as its proxy and doing whatever
02:30it wants.
02:31And the reality is that in the next five weeks before November elections in the U.S., there
02:37is a window of opportunity in which the Israeli government can basically do almost whatever
02:43it wants, and there will be no constraints whatsoever on its behavior.
02:49This is what Iran is also aware of, and that's why it doesn't want to fall into what it sees
02:55an Israeli trap.
02:57But again, the choices and the dilemmas that it's facing right now are very hard, because
03:02there is one thing not to fall into your adversary's trap.
03:06It's quite another when your deterrence is completely shattered, and you also risk to
03:15lose your credibility along with it as well.
03:18Ali Vaez from International Crisis Group.