Decline in NFL Passing Touchdowns: Analysis 2019-2024

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00:00Let's take a deep dive into passing overall over the last handful of seasons throughout

00:09football, passing touchdowns through two weeks.

00:13We'll look at it in 2019 and then we'll take it all the way down to 2024.

00:17And this stat is remarkable, Joe.

00:19Let's take it away.

00:20Passing touchdowns through the first two weeks in football, starting in 2019 to now.

00:25Yeah, well, it's become a passing league, right?

00:28The NFL over the last 10 years, we've had to adjust our fantasy rosters around that.

00:35But something has changed in the last couple of years, a few things.

00:38And if you look at the stats, it really bears things out.

00:41Take a look here, starting at 2019, right?

00:44In the first two weeks of the season, 105 touchdowns, well, the following year, 110,

00:48110 in 2021, in 2022, 105, and in 2023, it took a severe dip all the way to 86.

00:57And this year, through two weeks, just 69 passing touchdowns.

01:02So what's going on right now?

01:03What happened between 2022 and 2023?

01:05Did someone come into the league?

01:06Was there a rules change?

01:08What happened?

01:09Well, what's coming to the league is a lot of youth at the quarterback position, right?

01:13A lot of youth, a lot of inexperience.

01:16You've also got a different style of quarterback, and that style of quarterback is one that's

01:19more athletic, more apt to run.

01:22So we're also rushing for touchdowns a little bit more, right?

01:25So the adage of sometimes looking at fantasy quarterbacks and saying, oh, you can wait

01:30on the late quarterback and all that stuff, the age of the Philip Rivers is over.

01:35You know, those guys that you felt really good, those passing pocket guys that just

01:39would sit there and sling the ball around for 4,400 yards and throw for 30 touchdowns

01:45every year, they were just fine to get at the end of drafts, Matthew Stafford, prime

01:49years in Detroit, that kind of situation, that's all fading into the distance right

01:54now.

01:55So instead, you're getting a lot more of the athletic quarterback, a lot more of the diverse

01:58styles in the NFL that you're seeing.

02:01And passing touchdowns have gone down considerably because of that.

02:04So you've even seen some offenses that have been a little bit more gimmicky, a little

02:09bit more like you would see sometimes in some college situations when you get down to the

02:13goal line, too.

02:14So there's a lot of factors at play here, but the biggest one is the youth and inexperience

02:19of the quarterback position.

02:20You're seeing more rookies play than ever who maybe aren't ready to play.

02:24And as this continues to set into the NFL map, I think it's going to bear the question

02:28over the next year or two, watching Caleb Williams struggle, watching Bryce Young struggle,

02:34watching Will Levis struggle, watching a lot of these guys struggle, maybe it's better

02:39to have these guys sit with a clipboard for the first year.

02:42If you look at the guy in the box there in the graphic for this conversation, it's Patrick

02:49Mahomes.

02:50Patrick Mahomes sat for a year.

02:52Patrick Mahomes then went on to be one of the great quarterbacks ever.

02:55Now, he's got all the talent, all the skill set, but how much do you learn in terms of

02:59confidence and gain in terms of understanding just by being around and absorbing it from

03:05a good veteran ahead of you?

03:07And I think it's a question a lot of these organizations have to ask themselves.

03:10Everybody's emphasis is so much on winning and winning now.

03:13And we put this draft pick capital and all the money into this guy.

03:17He's got to start week one.

03:18He's got to be the star from week one.

03:20And that's just a lot to put on a young man to come into the NFL and take that ball and

03:24run with it.

03:25I think it's smart what the Patriots are doing.

03:27I think the plan that the Minnesota Vikings had was smart to let's just give the kid his

03:31own time to start to get ready.

03:33Matt, what do you think is the biggest contributor to this passing number being down so much

03:38in passing touchdowns in the last two years and such a strong trend?

03:42You hit the nail on the head with that with regards to the youth influx into the league,

03:48the changing of the game, young head coaches coming in, just a younger mentality overall.

03:54You can think about it, the next generation will lead.

03:57But during my time in wrestling, especially in WWE, there was this term that we'd use

04:00for wrestlers that were really, really good.

04:02They weren't ready for TV, too green for TV.

04:05And what it means is that you're still making mistakes.

04:07You don't want the world to see those mistakes because in the pro wrestling world, sometimes

04:11they don't forgive you so easily.

04:13But same here in football now.

04:14You're seeing an influx of youth in a lot of sports, but they're allowed to make their

04:17mistakes in front of everyone.

04:19So do we either alter the game so those mistakes aren't as painful and embarrassing, or do

04:25we find a different way to let these young kids mature?

04:27So Joe, I think you're right.

04:28Sitting with a clipboard, learning, to me, experience is the greatest tool in the world.

04:34But we live in an age where that's not the case.

04:36These quarterbacks are too green for TV and the stats are showing.

04:39Well, it's interesting, Matt, because you either have patience in the beginning and

04:44it works out, or you end up like the Carolina Panthers are now, which is in this cycle.

04:49Same thing with the Bears might be, right?

04:51Well, we took Justin Fields.

04:52We got to play him right away.

04:53Everything's got to work out.

04:54And then it doesn't.

04:55And then we're right back in that draft again, trying to find the next guy who's going to

04:58work out.

04:59And it becomes this vicious cycle.

05:01And what's better at the end of the year?

05:02Is it better to take a year of patience and look ahead?

05:03Or is it better to put everything in there and have the back of the draft again?

05:14Yeah.

05:15Yeah.

05:16Yeah.

05:17Yeah.

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