Exploring Wide Receiver Props: Dolphins vs. Bills Matchup

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00:00So if we start with the pass catchers tonight, wide receiver and tight end props, obviously

00:07we know with the Miami Dolphins, you're not really looking too much towards the tight

00:10end position.

00:11It's all with their dominant wide receivers in Tyree Kill and also with Jalen Waddell.

00:15And also as you brought up already, Tom, you're looking at that Buffalo Bill, sort of a work

00:19in progress type offense, specifically at the wide receiver position.

00:22What are some props we're looking at from either side, Buffalo Bill's pass catchers

00:26and or Miami Dolphins pass catchers?

00:28Let's start off simple with a Waddell TD.

00:30He didn't score last week, which I love.

00:32I love being on players after they haven't scored.

00:35And this is just a simple offensive usage thing.

00:37We can essentially look back at what the Dolphins did last year and take a large portion of

00:42that moving forward into this year, because it's essentially the same pass catching group.

00:46He had the second highest target share in the team last year, up at a 23.4%.

00:49He was third on the team in red zone target share at 14.8.

00:52Number one was of course Tyree Kill.

00:54Number two is actually Odell Beckham Jr., but we know that OBJ is out.

00:57So we're looking at Waddell's number two option.

00:59And then on the other side, Keon Coleman, over 19 and a half for the longest reception.

01:05And this might be a bit of a stretch, but I also think this is a buy low spot.

01:09Again, Gabe Davis, Steph Diggs, no longer with the Bills.

01:12Last year, Steph Diggs had a 15.4 ADOT average depth of target, Gabe Davis was at 27.

01:19They're missing those pieces.

01:20Now MVS had a 27.5 ADOT in week one, it's just a small sample size.

01:24But if he takes over that Gabe Davis role, the intermediate role could be filled by Keon

01:29Coleman.

01:30And if that's going to be the case, that 19.5 number could move up to 20, 21.5, 22.5 when

01:35we saw Keon Coleman with 11.5 air yards per reception in week one.

01:39So this might be a buy low spot.

01:41They drafted him for a reason after they traded Diggs and they need him to fill this role.

01:46So 15 yard catch, a few yards after, we hit the over easy.