" Aglay 39 Mah IMF Programme Baghair Kisi Rukawat Ke Chalta Raha To. .." Economist Khaqan Najeeb

1 year ago

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00:00But your question, let me answer that by three things.

00:03Number one, going to IMF gives you a soft landing, which it has given you.

00:08The 1A and 1B of this 1A is that Pakistan has completed one extended fund facility or longer term program in its life.

00:18It is of 13-16 and I know this because I was a part of the SCORE team who ran that program.

00:23If Pakistan is able to run this program smoothly in the next 39 months, then there will be macro-stability.

00:32You can also translate that into minor growth, otherwise there will be no macro-stability.

00:37Number two, remember in Pakistan, and this is not Pakistan, I say this in other countries as well,

00:43authorities should build their professionalism in the team which runs the program.

00:49Otherwise, even now, I don't think people are aware of this,

00:54because the first two months of the 100Rs shortfall, there is a tacit agreement with a fund

01:00that new taxes will have to be implemented on the quarterly shortfall.

01:03So I am really hoping that they don't have to do it and this discussion is going on with the fund,

01:08but I think maybe they will have to do it.

01:10And the third thing, if you want to get out of this mess and get separated from the drip of IMF,

01:18then no one has stopped you from cutting the broadening of the tax base,

01:22cutting all the financial expenditure, fixing the energy sector and fixing the growth framework.

01:28Neither the IMF nor the world is stopping you.

01:30You have made it very difficult.

01:32So there is a possibility that we fix all our energy sector issues,

01:39end the transmission line losses, streamline the SCORE, privatize it and solve our issues.

01:48This has been a dream for us for more than 70 years.

01:51When do you think this dream will be fulfilled?

01:53Dr. Ali is a very good friend of mine, but I will not disagree with him.

02:01But I do not agree with his opinion.

02:06The problem is that the stability that has come,

02:09the Pakistani nation and our poor nation have paid a very high cost for it.

02:14The $350 billion that Mr. Omar Ayub is talking about was made from Bloomberg,

02:19which will result in a loss of $14 billion.

02:23So when we worked back on it, my entire economic team, including people from the Ivy League,

02:28and those who review other people's programs, we took that team with us.

02:32When we crunched it, we found out that if I replace those figures in today's environment,

02:39then the value of the dollar is $243.

02:42So we have overpriced the dollar and because of that, my inflation is 9% higher.

02:47Mr. Tola, I am sorry, I am cutting you short.

02:49You have made it so important that I cannot stop.

02:53Because at this time, the dollar is around $280.

02:56So you are saying that it should be around $243.

02:58Will the value of the dollar decrease?

03:00Rs. 235.

03:02And if this stability has come today,

03:04this macro stability is not because of the IMF program.

03:07I was also a part of this program.

03:09I was also a part of the next program.

03:12But the question is,

03:14we had to negotiate in that program.

03:16We had taken 17 concessions in that program.

03:22And we had taken waivers for that program.

03:24In this program,

03:26the negotiations that we were doing,

03:28in which we were involved,

03:30you don't know what the situation was there.

03:32What was the situation, Mr. Tola?

03:34It was a very bad situation.

03:36You were saying that your current account will be deficit.

03:38I had also said that it cannot be more than 3.

03:40And in the end,

03:42you ended at $681 million.

03:44So today,

03:46the reason for your stability

03:48was your homegrown.

03:50It was not the recipe of the IMF.

03:52And secondly,

03:54you gave this form of 9% inflation

03:56as a gift and achieved this stability.

03:58Thirdly, let me tell you that

04:00what we are talking about,

04:02that today the reserve is increasing,

04:04the dollar has increased by $7 billion from the market.

04:06We have not received a loan

04:08in the IMF program.

04:10You can see.

04:12Since we have come to the short program of the IMF,

04:14and since we have come to the short program of the IMF,

04:16there has been some roll over.

04:18We have repaid the majority.

04:20So this is not something

04:22that we have given to the community.

04:24But I am sorry to say,

04:26I only had one point.

04:28If $16.5 billion,

04:30if my friends,

04:32which is done by Saudi Arabia,

04:34UAE and China,

04:36had given me without the IMF program,

04:38then I could have run a much better economy

04:40than the IMF program.

04:42And I did not need any IMF.

04:44And I saved my community

04:46from inflation by at least 9-10%.

04:48I will take this point back to Dr.

04:50But just tell me this much,

04:52when is the dollar coming to $235?

04:54You give it to me,

04:56I will run it and give it to you.

04:58$235 will come.

05:00Mr. Accountant,

05:02you are on the side.

05:04I am not talking about any personality.

05:06I am not talking about any personality.

05:08I am saying that you are not being given.

05:10No, I don't want a position.

05:12Let us run it.

05:14Mr. Khakar will get it done with me.

05:16But the problem is that

05:18they tell us what will happen to exports.

05:20Exports run at 70-30.

05:22Give them $13 per rupee.

05:24What will happen to remittance?

05:26Give them $15 per rupee.

05:28Save Rs. 1000 and give Rs. 1000.

05:30You will not have any problem.

05:32Doctor,

05:34do you also see such a positive outlook?

05:36Because if it is so,

05:38then it will be easy for the government.

05:40There will be a breathing space

05:42to cater for political instability,

05:44economic instability.

05:46If people get three meals a day,

05:48then the situation will be

05:50politically calmed down.

05:52Anika, you have got

05:54room and space.

05:56The liquidity has improved

05:58due to which you can mop up.

06:00You are right, Mr. Tawla.

06:02You have got room and space.

06:04I will say that if friendly countries

06:06did it without IMF,

06:08they would have done it.

06:10I think it would not have happened.

06:12On international forums,

06:14I have heard the Minister of Treasury

06:16saying that

06:18it is better for Pakistan

06:20if we stay with IMF.

06:22This is my understanding.

06:24If we do not sensibly

06:26use this macro stability,

06:28and if we do not

06:30cut the cost

06:32by correcting the energy

06:34inefficiencies,

06:36if we do not improve

06:38our productivity,

06:40if we do not improve

06:42our export base,

06:44if we do not cut our expenditures,

06:46you have approached the budget

06:48by increasing the current expenditure

06:50by 24%.

06:52Even then I said

06:54that we should not

06:56keep more than Rs. 900 billion.

06:58Now it is Rs. 1100 billion

07:00and it is going to come back.

07:02These mistakes are so initial

07:04that they should be cemented.

07:06Dr. Khakha,

07:08thank you very much.

07:10Thank you very much for joining me in the program.

" Aglay 39 Mah IMF Programme Baghair Kisi Rukawat Ke Chalta Raha To. .." Economist Khaqan Najeeb

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