- 2 years ago
Abdul Karim news chaina
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00This is the story of the most influential economic success of our time.
00:04But now this success seems to be much weaker than before.
00:08In the past 20 years, China has grown economically at the fastest rate in the world.
00:13Its economy has come to the second largest in the world after the United States.
00:19China's rapid growth gave birth to such prophecies that it would soon become the largest economy in the world.
00:26But in the last two decades, the shadow of black clouds began to fall on this country's economy for the first time.
00:31And as a result of the rapid growth, the question arose that will China ever be able to leave the United States behind?
00:41In this video, we will highlight a few basic problems facing China's economy.
00:45For example, zero-COVID policy, lack of labor force, imbalance in revenue and revenue.
00:52In addition to this, we will also look at the first international factors that pose a threat to Beijing's development.
00:57And we will also find the answer to this question that is China still on the path to becoming the world's largest economy?
01:04You can learn all this in this video of our series Business Beyond.
01:11China is the world's largest revenue-generating country, the world's largest manufacturing center, and its local market is also very large.
01:18In 2010, China's GDP growth reached an astonishing 10.6%.
01:24But then this rate gradually began to decline.
01:29According to IMF estimates, this trend of decrease in China's GDP growth will continue.
01:35A major factor in China's economic growth was the zero-COVID policy of the Beijing government,
01:41which has severely affected daily life in China over the past few years.
01:46In 2022, when on the one hand most countries in the world began to end COVID restrictions,
01:52on the other hand, China began to tighten them even more.
01:55The severe measures taken to control the coronavirus broke the backs of small businesses and many factories in China began to close.
02:02As a result, a series of extraordinary protest demonstrations against the government's strict lockdown policies also began.
02:09In December 2022, the Chinese government finally began to soften its strict protective measures.
02:17But many experts believe that the end of the zero-COVID policy in China will not immediately cause economic growth.
02:25The lifting of COVID does not necessarily change or solve China's economic structural problems.
02:32Before talking about the short-term measures of the Beijing government to improve the economy,
02:36it will be necessary to first see how China's economy has progressed.
02:42Half a century ago, China was suffering from political and social turmoil to an extent.
02:47Mao Zedong's so-called Cultural Revolution was aimed at liberating the country from capitalism or the capitalist system.
02:54But with the rise of Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping, everything changed.
03:02China was eager to adopt liberalization with open access to international markets.
03:07This country began to change. Cities, factories and universities began to fill up.
03:12A new era of manufacturing, technology and entrepreneurship began.
03:16China's middle class began to rise.
03:19Deng Xiaoping's reforms gave rise to an inactive economic superpower.
03:23China's basic reform plans made its economy more prosperous than global trade laws.
03:29And in 2001, the World Trade Organization's door was also opened for it.
03:37And in the next six years, China's annual GDP was surprisingly 12% on average.
03:43In the low-wage labor and global economy, all these gave rise to China.
03:48And it became the largest global exporter.
03:57Then, during the 2008 global financial crisis, export orders from Europe and America continued to decline.
04:02As a result, China began to invest more and more in its economy to create jobs.
04:07This action paved the way for one of the biggest threats to China's economy today.
04:12And this threat is debt.
04:14The Chinese government took the support of the construction sector to protect its economy.
04:19And it also showed its effect.
04:21Despite the financial crisis, China's rapid economic growth in the economy was about 10%.
04:29But with the investment of the basic sector,
04:32supporting the economy meant that the government would have to continue its construction work.
04:37China's rapid rail system eliminates the heavy expenses incurred on the construction and development of its basic sector.
04:45This country is proud of its longest high-speed rail network in the world.
04:49But despite the increasing financial losses, it is spreading.
04:53In fact, it has been diversified in less populated areas.
04:57Where there is not much demand for it.
04:59Now the situation is that the expenses of maintaining the railway network and the interest paid on them have exceeded the railway's income.
05:07From 2008 to 2021, China's debt was more than 140% of the total national GDP and became 286%.
05:16Today, China's total debt is almost three times the size of its economy.
05:21Most of this debt was not on the shoulders of Beijing, but on the local governments.
05:27According to the Beijing government, the local governments have issued another show paper for the repayment of this debt.
05:32Which was already bankrupt, i.e. real estate.
05:35The local governments started selling government-owned land to real estate developers to raise money for Beijing's plans.
05:43Developers rushed to take advantage of this surplus.
05:46And then a big housing bubble was formed in the form of this property boom.
05:51Especially in small Chinese cities, where the construction of houses started to leave the demand behind.
05:56And it gave rise to the problem of China's so-called ghost cities.
06:01Today, China has so many empty apartments, where a big European country like France can arrange for the accommodation of the entire population.
06:09Therefore, in order to avoid the destruction of the real estate sector, the government tightened restrictions on the business of property.
06:16In this, many big real estate developers went bankrupt.
06:19And people's life savings were in danger.
06:22Banks were losing money and the government was drowning in debt.
06:25And in order to reduce this great loss, the Chinese rulers will have to cut expenses.
06:30That is, they will have to retreat from the rule of law, which has first of all raised China's economy.
06:42There is another black cloud on China's economy, a shortage of capital.
06:46Therefore, in order to get rid of the public debt and the real estate sector, the rulers need to strengthen another economic engine.
06:53And that is demand.
06:56For this, the Chinese rich need to spend as much money as possible.
06:59But this is not happening.
07:01During the global pandemic of Corona, strict restrictions on the local level kept the capital suppressed for three years.
07:07But the zero-Covid policy is not the only reason for the shortage of capital.
07:10Because of this, people in China have preferred to deposit cash.
07:14In China, the condition of national savings is the highest in the world.
07:17And according to analysts, one of the major reasons for this is a weak social security system.
07:22And now that the effects of Beijing's zero-Covid policy are decreasing,
07:25many analysts believe that in order to start a new phase of development,
07:29it is extremely important to end the suffering of spending people's money.
07:34Locally, there is an increase in demand, which the Chinese government is not ready to pay.
07:41China is fighting another internal problem.
07:44And that is the rapid aging of the population and a record shortage in the birth rate.
07:49In China, the birth rate of children has come to a record low.
07:52In the 1980s, the average birth rate of Chinese women was 2.7%,
07:58which dropped to 1.2% in 2021.
08:02This rate is much lower than the current rate to maintain the size of the population.
08:07In 2023, the population of China was reduced for the first time in many decades.
08:12And India became the most populous country in the world instead of China.
08:16One of the reasons for the population crisis is the policy of one child from 1980 to 2015.
08:23Although it is allowed to have more than one child these days,
08:27many young people still hesitate to have a large family or even one child.
08:32And the main reason for this is to pay attention to the career after completing education.
08:36And then in the big cities of China, the expenses of raising children are also quite high.
08:41The population of China is at an important turn in terms of its future.
08:45It also benefited a lot from the increasing population during its fastest economic growth.
08:49Because it had a large number of labor force for the operation of its factories.
08:54But now this situation is changing.
08:58The declining population means that due to the shortage of workers and workers,
09:04wages are also increasing.
09:06Experts warn that this will make it difficult for China to meet the demands of the world with its low income.
09:12And on the other hand, the increasing number of elderly people in the country will put more pressure on the pension system.
09:20Change in the population is a long-term trend.
09:23Therefore, the Chinese government still has time to find a solution to this.
09:27As Beijing has already adopted a policy of three children.
09:30In which the benefits of poverty, cheap education and care for children are also included.
09:40China is moving towards a shortage of population.
09:43But until its declining population affects its economic growth, it will still take more time.
09:52Economic growth is not only threatened by the domestic situation.
09:56In fact, the international conditions that have played a role in China's economic development in the past are also changing now.
10:02Today, when the world economy is in decline and strong economies are also facing increasing population.
10:09In this case, the demand for Chinese products has also decreased.
10:12The share of Chinese goods and services decreased from 36% of GDP in 2006 to 26% in 2021.
10:21Another important factor is that the world is moving towards such a future where separatism will probably be preferred.
10:30And the two economic superpowers of the world are in a strategic competition.
10:34This trend also sped up due to the global pandemic of Corona, which highlighted the practical value of mutual aid.
10:41In October 2022, the United States introduced a series of restrictions and regulations that do not target only Chinese and companies.
10:50In fact, they affect an entire industry.
10:57China is the largest producer of semiconductors in the world.
11:03They are used in many other products that are made in China.
11:06For example, automobiles.
11:08Technically, they are not capable of competing with small semiconductors of real and high quality.
11:14But they produce a large amount of semiconductors of intermediate technology.
11:20Now the United States has imposed restrictions on the sale of the latest semiconductors to China.
11:29Without advanced semiconductors, you do not have much opportunity in the field of advanced technology.
11:36It is not clear to what extent the supply chain and economic mutual aid will be reduced between the two countries.
11:42But one thing is for sure that the environment that had once given China its independence has now become a hurdle in its path.
11:49Anyway, China is trying to improve its technical skills to compete with it.
11:54Especially with the help of such Chinese scientists who have returned to the country after training in America or other Western countries.
12:06At the beginning of this video, we asked that is China still on the path to becoming the world's largest economy?
12:13In the language of experts, the answer to this can be given that the model of development for China that was working well during the 1990s and 2000s
12:22is no longer effective for them.
12:24That is, as an advanced economy, China's rapid development, urbanization, increase in population and upgrade in manufacturing.
12:32But now that these economic plans have become lazy, they need alternative plans.
12:38However, experts believe that there is still a need for a new kind of economic development in the hands of Chinese policymakers.
12:46China will benefit a lot if it can follow such policies.
12:50With this, instead of investing in real estate and infrastructure for the sake of development,
12:56money will be spent by investors and services will be given to them in return.
13:02China's economy is standing at a point where experts have different opinions about it becoming the world's largest economy.
13:13If China could not move ahead of America before 2027 or 2028,
13:18then in my opinion it will never be able to do so because its development will not be so strong.
13:23China needs to use these years so that it can really reach there by 2027-28.
13:30This may happen if America becomes a victim of a very big economic recession.
13:39China can definitely progress in terms of numbers, but in terms of standards, I think there are a lot of challenges.
13:48I think it can still happen because it is still very big.
13:52China is still the world's largest producer.
13:55China is the world's largest manufacturing center and its domestic market is huge.
14:02Now that the Chinese economy is coming out of the effects of the three-year strict zero-COVID policy,
14:07it is difficult to become the world's largest economy.
14:11Beijing's next move will determine whether China takes a new and better path to continue its economic development
14:18or whether its journey will stop here.
14:22I hope you liked our video.
14:24You can give your opinion about this topic in the comment section
14:27and you can add us and other experts to your knowledge with a constructive dialogue.
14:33For now, allow me Irfan Aftab.
Comments