00:00Hello and welcome to State of the Union, I'm Stefan Grobe in Brussels.
00:09If you love conflicts between the European Union and Hungary, you had a field day this
00:14week.
00:15The anti-immigrant government in Budapest ignored the deadline to pay a 200 million
00:20euro fine imposed by the European Court of Justice.
00:24The judges had found that Hungary committed an unprecedented and exceptionally serious
00:29breach of EU law when it put long-standing restrictions on the right to asylum.
00:35The dispute dates back to 2020 when the Hungarian authorities were heavily criticized for keeping
00:40asylum seekers in so-called transit zones under detention-like conditions.
00:47Now the European Commission has put in motion a procedure to collect the 200 million fine.
00:53I think, you know, we have the financial regulation in place, there is no bigger room
00:58here, we have to follow the applicable procedures.
01:00So we sent a second request in line with the procedure, this gives Hungary 15 calendar
01:07days to make the payment.
01:09We'll see what happens in two weeks.
01:11Yet the shocker of the week was not Hungary's refusal to pay its fine, but the outcome of
01:17regional elections in East Germany.
01:19For the first time since World War II, a hard right and fascist party emerged as the strongest
01:25force in a state election.
01:27A shocker, but not a surprise.
01:30German Chancellor Olaf Scholz saw it coming.
01:33Even before election day, he announced a tougher immigration policy in a vain attempt to stem
01:38his social democratic party's bleeding at the polls.
01:42Germany has started deporting Afghan nationals with criminal records to their home country.
01:47Now, Scholz's colleague south of the border in Austria announced direct deportations to
01:52Afghanistan and Syria as well.
01:55On that, Vienna would be in close cooperation with Berlin.
01:59Joining me now is Raphael Loss, policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations
02:21in Berlin.
02:22Welcome to the program.
02:23Thank you for having me.
02:25So Olaf Scholz's tougher stance on immigration didn't help him in the election.
02:30Is there a risk that his government will abandon other policy positions, like on Ukraine, to
02:37please the populist crowd?
02:39There's certainly a risk.
02:41I think the federal government working with the democratic opposition, the Christian Conservative
02:47Union, are trying to figure out a way to respond to this electoral victory of the AFP and BSW
02:54in Saxony and Thuringia on Sunday.
02:56And migration policy seems to be certainly one of those areas that they have identified
03:01as needing to work on.
03:03But less emphasis on questions like Ukraine, the energy transformation, other somewhat
03:09contentious issues.
03:11So the results in East Germany were more of symbolic nature than they were of substance.
03:16I mean, we're talking about two small states with a combined population of seven percent
03:21of the German total.
03:23Is it still a national bellwether?
03:25It's certainly important to keep things in perspective.
03:28You're right to point out that Saxony and Thuringia are not the largest states of the
03:3116 in Germany.
03:33But it is the first time that a right-wing extremist party has a 30 percent of seats
03:39in any state parliament or the federal parliament in Germany since 1949, since the founding
03:44of the Federal Republic.
03:46And so it is, to some extent, a watershed moment that gives the AFD and the BSW some
03:52power, formally and informally, to influence policy.
03:56But more importantly, I think their success means that other parties have to respond to
04:00them, have to respond to their initiatives, to their rhetoric.
04:04And AFD and BSW have little interest in stability and order.
04:09They thrive on instability.
04:12And Chancellor Scholz has called the results bitter, urging the other parties to keep the
04:18right from power, which would force them into ideologically garbled coalitions.
04:23Can this be a successful way forward?
04:26It seems to me that this is a way forward, regardless of whether German policymakers
04:30like it or not.
04:31The political spectrum is becoming more fragmented.
04:34The far right, the far left are political forces to be recognized.
04:39And that means that the centrist political parties, those with a strong democratic commitment,
04:44have to find new ways to cooperate effectively, not only to advance important policy issues,
04:50but also to signal to voters that democratic governance can deliver results.
04:56At this point, it's hard to see how Scholz can politically survive federal elections
05:01a year from now, even if he has proven time and again that he has political stamina and
05:08cannot be underestimated.
05:10Your thoughts?
05:11The questions that are circulating in Berlin certainly are around his political survival.
05:16We should be counted out this time.
05:19But there are certainly questions that are coming up.
05:22The SPD, Olaf Scholz's own party, is trying to keep quiet at this time because there's
05:27another state election in Brandenburg in two and a half weeks.
05:31But afterwards, if the results for the SPD are as disastrous as in Saxony and Thuringia,
05:36I'm having a hard time believing that Olaf Scholz is still as comfortable in his leadership
05:41seat as he is now.
05:42All right.
05:43Rafael Loss, policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, thanks for coming
05:47on the show today.
05:48My pleasure.
05:51This week, one country rarely in the news made headlines, Mongolia, for not arresting
05:57Vladimir Putin.
05:59Putin's visit to the East Asian neighbor was the first trip to a member state of the International
06:04Criminal Court in The Hague.
06:06Nearly 18 months ago, the ICC issued an arrest warrant against Putin for alleged war crimes
06:12in connection with Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
06:16Members of the court are treaty-bound to detain suspects, something Mongolia chose not to
06:22do, as you can see here.
06:25Instead, Putin was greeted in the capital Ulaanbaatar by an honor guard dressed in uniforms
06:32styled on those of 13th century ruler Genghis Khan.
06:37Ukraine and the EU have called on Mongolia to fulfill its obligations and place Putin
06:41under arrest without success.
06:44Will other ICC members act differently?
06:48Will Putin have the guts to find out?
06:50Well, we'll keep you posted.
06:53That's it for this edition.
06:54I'm Stefan Grobe.
06:57Have an excellent week.
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