Hungary has secured a one-year U.S. waiver on Russian oil and gas but the nation’s tightrope between Moscow and Washington is far from over. Geopolitical analyst Botond Feledy breaks down what it means for Viktor Orban ahead of next year's elections.
00:00Meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban,
00:05a close ally of the White House, has seen Budapest securing a one-year exemption from
00:10sanctions on Russian oil and gas.
00:13Brussels-based geopolitical analyst Botan Felody highlights the tightrope Hungary continues to walk,
00:19balancing its reliance on Russian energy while maintaining favor in Washington,
00:23ahead of national elections next spring.
00:25The interest of the Hungarian Prime Minister in maintaining the access to Russian oil is important
00:32because several government-aligned entities have interest in the oil company's profit.
00:38So it has a very concrete outcome for Fidesz in the upcoming election year,
00:45whether they have these surpluses, both potentially in state budget and in government-aligned organizations.
00:52Having that said, Donald Trump is also keen on trying to make a deal with Russia,
00:58and Orban wants to be instrumental in that.
01:01That's why we had the discussions around the Budapest meeting of two sides, Russia and the United States.
01:08So this tightrope is actually working out on the diplomatic level.
01:13At the same time, we don't really see the payoffs on the Hungarian citizen side,
01:19because all the neighboring countries, like the Austrians or a bit further in the Czech Republic,
01:26could come off the Russian imports rather without a price surge,
01:31having the same prices as Hungary has currently on Russian oil.
01:35They have no problems at the petrol stations, and that means that it is feasible,
01:40but Hungary has not yet begun to shift away from Russian resources in the last three years since the full-scale invasion.
01:47Speaking on the possibility of a Trump-Putin meeting in Budapest,
01:51Botan said such a summit would serve more as a political opportunity for the Kremlin than a diplomatic breakthrough.
01:59Hungary cannot be negligible in any respect.
02:02On the one hand, it is a NATO member state and an EU member state, the ally of the United States,
02:07therefore ally of the measures that are being taken by NATO members.
02:14On the other hand, Orban himself and his government policy is also not neutral when it comes to the war.
02:21It is clear that Hungary does run a much more Russian-friendly stance among the EU member states,
02:28most of the most Russian-friendly.
02:30Vladimir Putin has just endorsed Orban openly at a public event in Russia in the last months.
02:37So that means that it is an EU head of government running for re-election being endorsed by Vladimir Putin.
02:44So if this meeting is taking place in Budapest, that is actually a diplomatic and a political win for Vladimir Putin to come to NATO and an EU member state to be able to fly in.
02:55Hungary is in the process of resigning from the International Criminal Courts Treaty,
03:00therefore already saying that they did not arrest Vladimir Putin, despite it's still running legal, international legal obligations.
03:08So for Putin, it is the biggest win, and it is just a very ephemeral win for and victory for Viktor Orban in his election campaign,
03:18dressed up by the government-friendly media for election purposes.
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