Ukraine's incursion into Russia: What is Kyiv's goal?

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00:00For more we can bring in Peter Zalmayev, director of the Eurasian Democracy Initiative, who

00:06joins us from Kyiv.

00:07Thank you very much for joining us here on France 24 today.

00:10Now it's been 10 days, over 10 days, that Kyiv launched this invasion, this incursion

00:16into Kursk, whatever you call it.

00:18Do we know what's behind Kyiv's thinking?

00:21Well, officially we don't, but at least we have an official confirmation that it is indeed

00:26Ukrainian troops.

00:27And even if you had asked me about a week ago what the plans were, I would have said

00:32probably stick around for maybe a couple of more days, show up Vladimir Putin's regime

00:37for what it is, a colossus on clay feet with porous, undefended borders, and idée fixée,

00:45and a fixation and an obsession with Ukraine so much that Vladimir Putin does not bother

00:51to defend his own borders.

00:53But right now I see the intention is to try to get entrenched in Russia's territory in

00:57order to use it as a bargaining chip in eventual negotiations with the Russian side.

01:03You leave the Kharkiv region, we leave Kursk.

01:06Also it's lifted our morale, the morale of the fighting troops and people behind front

01:11lines, which who have been in need of good news for a long while.

01:15This is a very daring, risky but a daring move that has lifted hearts here in Ukraine.

01:23Once again, the end goal we don't know yet, and maybe that is part of the design.

01:28The secrecy in which this operation was conducted was in secret not only to the Russians but

01:35to most Ukrainians.

01:36I would imagine that only a very tight circle of individuals know of the eventual goal of

01:43this daring operation.

01:45Peter, you said it could potentially be used as a bargaining chip.

01:49So essentially, Kiev would essentially take control of a chunk of Russian territory the

01:56size of what Russia has annexed of Ukraine and potentially Crimea and say, okay, now

02:02let's swap?

02:05This could be.

02:06Once again, the numbers simply bear this out.

02:11The reinforcements that have arrived in the last few days, I think, you know, we can now

02:17talk about at least 10,000 Ukrainian troops present there, as many as 80 population settlements

02:24occupied, and maybe an advance as far as 30 kilometers inside Russia's territory.

02:32So that may actually be the case.

02:34Also, the Ukrainians, we're waiting to see if the Russians start withdrawing their battle-hardened

02:42troops from the, you know, hottest points of the front, including Toretsk and Pokrovsk

02:47in the Donbas, to try to kick the Ukrainians out.

02:51If that happens, that will also have been justified, because, you know, we, the Ukrainians,

02:57are bleeding quite heavily.

02:58Russians are advancing.

03:00Pokrovsk is a key place to hold, and, you know, a lot is riding on Ukraine's ability

03:08to keep it.

03:09So far hasn't happened.

03:10We're seeing that Russians are continuing the tempo of their advance, but they are finally

03:17starting to withdraw their troops elsewhere, including in Kharkiv.

03:21So maybe the strategy is slowly but surely working out.

03:26Peter, Russia has already started to say NATO weaponry is being used on its territory by

03:32Ukrainian troops.

03:33We've often heard about red lines by NATO states.

03:37Is this not a red line?

03:39Well, we have official statements from the Pentagon and other ministries of defense.

03:45They're saying that this is not really an offensive operation.

03:50This is largely a defense operation.

03:54Most Ukrainian allies have vocally stood behind Ukraine's decision to do this.

03:59And in fact, we are hoping that in the remaining months of Joe Biden in the White House, and

04:05he's announced that in an interview to the Financial Times, that he will concentrate

04:09on bolstering security relations with both Ukraine and Taiwan, that finally, finally

04:17the White House will be persuaded to lift this ridiculous, you know, limitation on Ukraine's

04:25ability to use its weapons against Russia.

04:28I mean, it already is inside Russia.

04:30If it is enabled to use some of the America-provided weaponry, I think it could, you know, develop

04:37this operation into a strategic success.

04:41We have some reports that some British tanks may potentially be, are being used in this

04:46operation.

04:47But for instance, if Ukraine starts using the F-16s, which it has received, that would

04:53potentially ruffle further feathers in Russia, won't it?

04:57Well, I mean, the feathers have been ruffled.

05:01I don't know which, you know, which other feathers remain that have, that are unruffled.

05:05And I think that's also part of the importance of this operation.

05:08It is showing to our Western allies first that Ukraine is able to stage daring offensive

05:15operations, offensive defensive operations, and that there are no red lines really to

05:20cross.

05:21Do not be afraid of Kremlin's red lines.

05:23They're already in Russia's territory fighting with some of the Western-provided tanks, as

05:28you mentioned.

05:29And what?

05:30According to Russia's nuclear doctrine, they're supposed to respond to it with a nuclear strike.

05:35Instead, we don't hear in nuclear rhetoric at all.

05:39There was a stoppage to all nuclear rhetoric.

05:41Now that Russia is sensing that, you know, it's here, it's there, it has to put its money

05:47where its mouth is, and all of a sudden it's showing lack of resolve on that issue.

05:52So this is very important, and I think it should embolden our Western allies to give

05:56Ukraine all that it needs to kick the Russians out of its territory.

06:02Peter, we have, you mentioned President Biden.

06:07His term is coming to an end shortly.

06:10We're not sure who's going to come out on top in November, of course.

06:14Could this be why Ukraine launched this incursion now, and not just because the weather is about

06:21to change?

06:22Well, I mean, I think the main, once again, the main goal has been to reassure its Western

06:29allies that Ukraine is capable not only of constantly crying, we need more weapons, please

06:35help us.

06:36No one likes this sort of attitude, and people get tired.

06:39It's a part of human psychology.

06:42People like a success story.

06:43And reading Western press and analyses, while most analysts will tell you that this is a

06:49risky operation, still a lot of folks have been heartened, and I think this should encourage

06:54the West to step up its support of Ukraine.

06:58Peter Zelmayev, thank you very much for joining us on the program today.

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