Al-Sinwar re-sculpts Iran's revenge.. Minimize, postpone, or

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00:00We know him better than his mother, and we are not unable to reach him as we reached those before him.

00:05The Israelis say he is our precious gain that came to us on a golden platter.

00:10Tehran whispers he is the hell that has come to meet the Palestinians and Israelis who hoped that they had not chosen Hanya.

00:18Rather, he is the password for the end of the Gaza War and the path of Iran's revenge against Israel.

00:24Western and Israeli intelligence circles say,

00:28Long live Sinwar, the man who does not smile or get angry,

00:32the strong man devoid of feelings who will never leave Gaza and will never surrender,

00:38and will not, as those who investigated him from the Israelis describe him.

00:43Today, as many believe, he will be the reason for the end of the war

00:47and the valley of the crushing response from multiple fronts that Khamenei, that is, Israel,

00:52pledged and promised with all faith after it assassinated Ismail Haniyeh

00:57while he was sleeping and reassured about the leadership of Hamas today.

01:01It comes to the Iranians.

01:03Whether it was involved in killing Haniyeh, as the Western report claimed,

01:07or it is grieving over his death and wants revenge, as Tehran says.

01:12In addition to many warnings that may impose a recalculation by returning the response

01:17or even canceling it or perhaps reducing it to a minimum,

01:21the lowest that does not harm the wolf and does not destroy the sheep,

01:25these are some of the equations that we will shed light on for those who ask about Iran's response

01:30and about the reactor of Yahya Sinwar,

01:33Iran's man reaching the top of the pyramid in Hamas,

01:37and the messages of Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah to Bashar al-Assad

01:42that you should have supported us in our war,

01:45but you did not do so in light of the talk about movements by his chief of staff to support Iran.

01:50But behind the back of Assad, who is committed to the instructions of the Russians,

01:55which are that you have nothing to do with a multi-front or single-front response to Israel,

02:01at a time when American crowds continue to arrive to protect Tel Aviv and perhaps to destroy Iran,

02:07it was necessary and thought of a response greater than what is permitted for it.

02:12In light of all the data, let us start with choosing Sinwar as the head of Hamas.

02:17Yes, it was a regional and international shock.

02:20Internationally, I feared that it would disrupt the negotiations,

02:24exacerbate the war and expand its flames,

02:27but Western and Israeli reports melted to the exact opposite of this.

02:32A choice that might end the war,

02:34linking this to his political ambitions in choosing Sinwar,

02:38according to these reports, instead of Haniyeh,

02:41might help push the hostage negotiations and end the war for several considerations.

02:47The first of which is that it was his intention, according to these reports,

02:51that he was consequences before the negotiations,

02:54because Mohammed is burdened with visions that may be contradictory between Tehran and Doha,

03:00and with them Ankara, and he also lives outside Gaza.

03:04As for Sinwar, he will deal with the negotiations in a more realistic manner,

03:08since he is still inside Gaza.

03:10Sinwar may also want to play his role as the movement's leader

03:14and ensure his election in the Hamas movement elections in 2025,

03:18which he cannot do until the bet deal is completed,

03:21which will lead to the end of the war

03:23and ensure that he demands a halt to the assassinations of Hamas leaders.

03:27Sinwar's importance in this position increases because,

03:31in addition to becoming the head of Hamas's political bureau,

03:34he is also the leader in Gaza,

03:36and it is possible that he will strengthen his position as a leader

03:39and strengthen Hamas position as an alternative to Fatah,

03:43the Palestinian Authority, and the Palestine Liberation Organization.

03:47This may justify the obstacles that prevented the selection of Khaled Mashal

03:51as the movement's president,

03:53despite Mashal being considered a moderate figure close to Qatar.

03:57At a time when many analyses suggest that Israel will not negotiate with Sinwar

04:02and will not rest until it liquidates him,

04:04considering him part of the plan for the greatest disaster in Israel's history,

04:09namely the al-Aqsa flood,

04:11especially since he is Iran's man and the most extremist in Hamas.

04:16However, from here we can highlight the second point,

04:19which is the Iranian-Israeli benefit of participation.

04:22On the Iranian side, it can be said that if Tehran had a say yesterday

04:26over Hamas with the presence of Ismail Haniyeh,

04:29then its say is what controls Hamas today with the presence of Sinwar,

04:33far from the influences of Qatar and others,

04:36and this is the valuable gain that came to Iran.

04:39As for Israel, it may view the matter from the perspective of partial interest

04:44that Iran be satisfied with a small response to the assassination of Haniyeh

04:49or postponement or even cancellation in exchange for Israel agreeing to allow Sinwar

04:53to manage the Gaza Strip for a while

04:56and negotiate with him on the release of the hostages and a water truce.

05:00Hebrew reports even went so far as to say that the backstage of the next deal

05:04is to end the war and Sinwar's exit from Gaza

05:08and allow an alternative government in it.

05:11Perhaps what supports, even theoretically,

05:13the hypothesis that Israel and Iran may reach an implicit understanding

05:18are some indicators that must be reviewed according to analysis and research centers,

05:22including the Iranian president's statement

05:25that Iran reserves the right to respond to Israel,

05:28which is a sentence that Iran usually says

05:31when it does not want to respond immediately at least.

05:33It is also possible to read the statements of Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah

05:39when he hinted at the possibility of responding alone to Israel.

05:42What is happening is that many Iraqis stand in the way of the comprehensive response

05:47that Iran talked about, even if reports intelligence leaked by CNN.

05:51I went to that.

05:52Hezbollah seems to be attacking Israel independently of Iran

05:56because it is moving faster than Tehran,

05:58which is still working on determining how to respond,

06:01indicating that Hezbollah may act without prior warning,

06:04which does not apply to Iran given Lebanon's proximity to Israel as a direct neighbor.

06:09According to these reports, Hezbollah will launch the first strike

06:13and the targets will be military and security, not civilian,

06:17including the army headquarters in central Tel Aviv,

06:20the Mossad headquarters and intelligence bases.

06:23We should also not forget that Nasrallah sent an indirect message to Bashar al-Assad

06:27that Israel's victory means the end of the dream of liberating the Golan,

06:31which was supported by reports that Assad is sending veiled messages to Israel

06:36that he is not interested in the comprehensive response that Tehran's circles talked about.

06:41These reports stated that the Syrian chief of staff, General Abdul Karim Ibrahim,

06:46made moves with Iran without the knowledge of the Syrian president,

06:49approving attacks on Israel from Syrian territory

06:52and agreeing in mid-July to launch marches towards Israel,

06:56all of this without the desire of Assad,

06:58who is committed to Russia's instructions not to enter any war against Israel.

07:03Finally, it can be said that the successive strikes by America and Britain on Yemen

07:08may make it difficult for it to participate in any coordinated attack with Tehran on Israel,

07:14which has ensured that Iran is taking a thousand calculations into account

07:18with the rush of American armored vehicles, aircraft and forces to defend it.

07:22After all this, the question remains,

07:25will Iran carry out a small, limited response to save face?

07:29Or will it be satisfied with its victory by choosing Sinwar, the head of Hamas?

07:35Oh Tehran, what shook you was the choice of.

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