Trump and Harris standings in various states

Bowling Hour

Trump and Harris standings in various states #usa #elections #polls #usapolls

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00:00And just hours from now, Vice President Kamala Harris and her running mate, Governor Tim

00:04Walz, will take the stage at a rally in Las Vegas.

00:06They'll be wrapping up a nearly week-long tour through some of the most critical battleground

00:11states of this election.

00:12The Harris campaign has seen a jolt of voter enthusiasm in the last three weeks since President

00:17Biden dropped out of the race and she became the party's presumptive nominee.

00:21She's new polling showing it's not just vibes.

00:24CNN's Harry Enten here to break that polling data down for us.

00:28Harry, what do these new New York Times polls show?

00:31I've heard from a lot of people about these today, a lot of people with eyes on these.

00:35Yeah, a lot of people.

00:36I think this is the type of polling we've been waiting for, right?

00:39We've seen that national polling showing movement towards Kamala Harris.

00:43Now we get some swing state polling showing something very similar.

00:47All right.

00:48These are in the Great Lake battleground states.

00:49We're talking about Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan.

00:52You go back to May, what'd you see?

00:53You saw that a pretty tight race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, but you see more red

00:57than blue on the screen.

00:58Of course, all three of these states were states that Joe Biden carried last time around.

01:02You saw a three-point lead for Trump in Pennsylvania, one well within the margin of error in Wisconsin,

01:06and then a one-point lead for Biden, Michigan.

01:08But look at where we are now.

01:10This is the type of movement the Harris campaign has been looking for.

01:14Look in Pennsylvania, a four-point advantage, Wisconsin, a four-point advantage, Michigan,

01:18a four-point advantage.

01:19And in all three of these states, we see clear movement towards the Democratic nominee.

01:24I will point out we're still in no clear leader land in this particular instance, but

01:28the Harris campaign has to love this movement.

01:31Seven points in Pennsylvania, five points in Wisconsin, and three points in the great

01:35state of Michigan, all moving towards Kamala Harris.

01:38And she has the advantage in all three, although again, no clear leader within the margin of

01:42error.

01:43Right.

01:44Important to keep that context in mind.

01:45Now, these aren't the only swing state polls that are showing Trump slipping.

01:49That's exactly right.

01:50You know, if we were just talking about the New York Times, Siena College, I'd say, you

01:53know what?

01:54Hold on a second.

01:55Hold on.

01:56You know me, Jessica.

01:57You know that I like to see confirmation of an individual poll.

02:00So there were Ipsos polls that were conducted in these same states.

02:05And I want you to look.

02:06This is an aggregate, of course, across Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

02:09You go back to June.

02:10What do you see?

02:11You saw Trump, on average, up by two points.

02:13Very similar to what we saw in the New York Times, Siena College poll.

02:16Look at where we are now, the August margin between Harris and Trump.

02:20And look at what we see here.

02:21We see Harris up by two points.

02:23Again, no clear leader, but that four-point movement, very similar to what we saw in the

02:28New York Times, Siena College poll.

02:30And this is what we're seeing across the polling data.

02:33It's not just one poll.

02:34It's not just one pollster.

02:36It's across pollsters.

02:37It's across polls.

02:38And, of course, in these Great Lake Battleground states that are going to be so important,

02:42we're seeing this four-point move with, instead of seeing a small Republican lead, we're seeing

02:46a small Democratic Party lead.

02:48And in this particular case, a small Kamala Harris lead over Donald Trump, the reverse

02:52of what we were just seeing just two months ago.

02:55Yeah.

02:56And, of course, the reason we care about these particular states so much is because of the

02:59Electoral College and how this all is decided in the fall.

03:03What does this data mean for the Electoral College more broadly and how that's playing

03:07out?

03:08Yeah.

03:09So, look, this is what we're talking about, the race to 270 electoral votes.

03:14And I want to give Kamala Harris those Great Lake Battleground states where she was leading,

03:18although within the margin of error.

03:20We're talking about Wisconsin.

03:21We're talking Michigan.

03:22We're talking Pennsylvania.

03:23If we give those three states to Kamala Harris, even if she loses in Nevada, Arizona and Georgia,

03:30which are far from guarantees.

03:31These, of course, were three states that Joe Biden carried last time around, but in which

03:35the Democrats have been falling a little bit short of their 2020 numbers, at least in recent

03:39data, at least when Joe Biden's in the race.

03:41But if we give Harris Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, look at that.

03:45She doesn't even need these Sunbelt Battleground states.

03:47She gets to exactly 270 electoral votes.

03:51So the fact is, when you see those polls in those Great Lake Battleground states and

03:55you see that Harris has turned the tide around from basically, you know, Donald Trump being

04:00slightly ahead to now Harris being slightly ahead, that could be the entire ballgame.

04:05Even if she loses down south, if she wins up north, that's enough.

04:08That gets her to exactly 270 electoral votes.

04:11And that's why those New York Times, Siena College polls, as well as those Ipsos polling

04:14data, why it means so much.

04:17And so here we are.

04:18Probably I'm ballparking it here, 80 something days away from the election at this point.

04:23How much can things change from now until the election?

04:25Yeah.

04:26So we have seen a lot of movement in the last two to three months.

04:30And I just want to note that the movement that we've seen towards Harris could easily

04:34reverse itself.

04:35And the reason I say that is because how far off were the polls on August 10th compared

04:40to the final margin in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin on average in 2016?

04:46The average from the polls at this point to the final margin, nine points across those

04:51three states.

04:52How about in 2020?

04:54Look at that.

04:55The average movement from the final poll from the polls at this point to the final margin.

04:59Look at that.

05:00Five points.

05:01So the fact is, yes, Kamala Harris may be slightly ahead right now.

05:04Again, though, a race which which there's no clear leader within the margin.

05:08But that could easily turn around in the final, let's say, a little bit less than three months

05:13to go.

05:14There's still a lot of campaign to go.

05:15We've got a Democratic National Convention to go.

05:17We probably have at least one more debate to go.

05:19So still a lot can change.

05:21But at the end of the day, Jessica, if you are the Democratic Party and you were looking

05:25at the polls two, three months ago and you compare it where you look now, I think for

05:29no doubt they'd rather look at this picture in August than the picture they were looking

05:33at it may.

05:34It's much more rosy picture for the Democratic Party, but still a lot of campaign to go.

05:38Jessica.

05:39Yeah, that's right.

05:40All right.

05:41Harry and always great to have you break it down for us.

05:42Thanks so much for that.

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