What does it mean when Australia raises its terror threat level?

Australian Community Media

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced that the terror threat level  would rise from 'possible' to 'probable'. So what does this mean for ordinary Australians?

Transcript

00:00Australia's terrorism threat level has been elevated from possible to probable.

00:06So what does this mean exactly? Well it doesn't mean that a terror attack is unavoidable

00:12and it doesn't mean that it's even more likely than it was before the threat level was raised.

00:18Australia's central intelligence agency ASIO says it's raising the terror threat level due

00:24to a rise in Australians embracing extremist ideologies. But how does ASIO determine what

00:30the threat level should be? In 2002, a year after the September 11 attacks on New York City,

00:37Australia introduced a five-tiered color-coded national terrorism threat advisory system.

00:45According to this scale, red means a terror attack is almost certain, orange means a terror

00:51attack is expected, yellow means a terror attack is probable, blue means a terror attack is possible,

00:58and green means a terror attack is not expected. Since November 2022, the nation's terror level

01:07has been sitting at blue, meaning ASIO believe a terror attack was possible but not probable or

01:14expected. When the terror level is brought to yellow, as it was in August 2024, it means ASIO

01:22believes a threat is probable. According to ASIO's own definition, it means there is a

01:27credible intelligence indicating that individuals or groups continue to possess the intent and

01:33capability to conduct a terrorist attack in Australia. The first time Australia's terror

01:38level was raised was in September 2014, and that was due to the increased activity of Islamic State

01:46around the world. Two weeks after the threat level was elevated in 2014, a radicalized teenager

01:52attacked police officers in Victoria. The terror level has not been raised to probable or yellow

01:59since 2014. Raising the terror threat level, however, does not mean that the nation is any

02:06less safe than it was before. The Global Terrorism Database has tracked attacks in Australia between

02:121970 and 2020, and it reveals of the 120 terror occurrences in that time, 18 cases have led to a

02:21loss of life. Overall, 27 fatalities have been a result of terror attacks in Australia in the past

02:28four decades. These occurrences include the Sydney Hilton hotel bombing in February 1978,

02:35which killed three people and injured 11, as well as the Lindt Cafe siege in Martin Place in December

02:412014, where four people were injured and two hostages were killed. So if the threat to ordinary

02:49Australians remains low, why did the Prime Minister announce this change? Rather than creating a panic

02:56in society, announcing an elevated terror level helps to foster public awareness, preparedness,

03:02and resilience. When a terror level is raised, communities become more aware of their surroundings,

03:07and in fact, public vigilance has been proven to be an effective tool in combating terrorism and

03:12safeguarding societies. For example, in 2010, street sellers in New York City reported seeing

03:18suspicious smoke coming from a vehicle in Times Square. That led authorities to uncover and diffuse

03:24a car bomb before it was detonated. Or in August 2009, when Australian authorities intercepted a

03:31potential Islamic terrorist plot targeting the Holesworthy Barracks in Sydney. Thankfully, the

03:37terror plot was thwarted before any lives were at risk. So, raising the terror level does have the

03:44potential to save lives, and it's not intended to just sound the alarm or lead to a widespread panic.

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