00:00you and I talked was about a poll after the debate. And between the debate and up until Saturday,
00:07the main point of conversation when it's about 2024 is President Biden's fitness, President
00:13Biden's mental acuity, his performance at that debate, and then at rallies as well as interviews
00:18after. That has largely been muted since Saturday after the assassination attempt.
00:23So how has this event from Saturday impacted 2024?
00:28Great question. In one regard, it's too early to tell, right? And public opinion still needs a
00:35little bit of time to settle. In another regard, a lot will depend on what happens going forward,
00:42especially in the Republican National Convention, but also how both of the campaigns of both of the
00:50parties address this specific event. What is clear from the data, and we ask the question,
00:56has Donald Trump's shooting and the events of last week impacted a voter's choice for president in
01:022024 or not? What we see clearly is that it has energized Republicans, and it will be a very
01:09strong turnout tool for Republicans. 54% of Republicans said they're more likely to vote
01:14Republican. Only 3% said they're more likely to vote Democrat, and the rest said, 43% said it
01:21doesn't make a difference. So that's essentially half of Republicans saying that they're more
01:27likely to vote for Trump because of this event. When you look at Democrats, 7% of Democrats
01:36now say they're more likely to vote Republican. 40% say they're more likely to vote Democrat,
01:42and 53% say it hasn't made a difference. So a little bit less energy amongst the Democratic
01:49camp, a little bit that the concern about the inevitability of Trump being elected isn't
01:55resonating as strongly amongst Democrats. And then for independents, 7 in 10 out of all the
02:01independents say it doesn't make a difference. And by the very small margin, 19% to 11%
02:10say they're more likely to vote Republican than they are to vote Democrat. So bottom line is that
02:16this might affect turnout, but so far it hasn't affected the horse race. And we're not really
02:24seeing a bump for Trump or a rally around the hard candidate effect so far. Dritana, I just want to
02:32make sure that I'm hearing you correctly because in all of these numbers, you're saying that there
02:38is a small group of Democrats that are now leaning to vote for Trump in light of Saturday's event.
02:45Is that correct? Yes. It's about 7% who said that they're more likely to vote for Trump
02:52after this weekend's event. To some extent, this isn't unusual because Trump has always pulled
03:00about 10% of the Democratic vote his way. And also we have to wait and see a little bit whether
03:07this perception from these Democrats is sustained or if it dissipates. But yes, there is some
03:16goodwill amongst Democrats, 7% of them. And then certainly amongst independents, 19%
03:23said they're more likely to vote for Trump than they are to vote for Biden after the event.
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