00:00Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis with Forbes Breaking News. Joining me now is Forbes senior
00:08contributor and meteorologist, Dr. Marshall Shepard. Dr. Shepard, thank you so much for
00:11joining me.
00:12Thank you, Brittany, for having me as usual. It's always great to talk to you.
00:16It's great to talk to you. You are the perfect person to break down what we're seeing today.
00:20The first hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic season is expected to make landfall. So what do we
00:26need to know?
00:28Well, you know, it's still pretty far out from making landfall right now, but I'm more
00:33concerned at this moment about what we're seeing in the Caribbean because we have, at
00:38the time of this recording, a Category 4 hurricane, and it's July 1st. That's just unprecedented.
00:48It actually was a Category 4 as early as June 30th. Brittany, we just don't see hurricanes
00:53of that period this early. We typically expect our first hurricane Atlantic season around
00:58August 11th, and to have one that's a major hurricane, Category 3 or higher, it's just
01:05unbelievable. What's also unbelievable is that this storm formed where it did. Typically
01:11in late June and early July, these storms are forming more in the Gulf of Mexico or
01:17down near the Bay of Campeche. They aren't forming in what we call the main development
01:21region, that region in the Atlantic where we typically see storms later in the year
01:26as they're coming off of Africa and become storms. And to top that off, to give you the
01:31sort of trifecta, if you will, it's so far south or equatorward. This thing is close
01:39to Grenada and Barbados and Trinidad and Tobago and the northern shores of South America.
01:46Just unbelievable to have a storm that far south. But you're right. As we look to the
01:50future, we do have to keep an eye on a potential landfall in Mexico and perhaps ultimately
01:55in the U.S. as well. So let's talk about these unprecedented factors first. Why are we seeing
02:02it so far south? You know, I think that's a question that many of us in the field are
02:07asking as well, because we don't see these storms that far south, and we don't typically
02:12see these storms forming in the main development region at this time of year either. So here's
02:17what's going on, Brittany. One, we transitioned from an El Niño to a La Niña. So La Niña
02:23means they're colder than normal waters in the eastern central Pacific, and that affects
02:28the wind shear patterns, believe it or not, in the atmosphere. Hurricanes like low or
02:33less shear. They form better when there's not a lot of change in wind speed or direction
02:37as you go up in the atmosphere because it tends to rip them apart. They like to stay
02:40vertical in terms of their development. So unusually favorable shear conditions are present
02:47right now in that part of the Atlantic. Typically a storm that would form at that time of year
02:51there would be ripped apart. So probably the El Niño is having something to do with it.
02:55But here's the big factor as well, and this is going to be a problem all summer long.
03:00The water temperatures are extremely hot. They're warm. Hurricanes night need warm waters.
03:08And in the part of the Caribbean and Atlantic that I looked at this morning, water temperatures
03:13are about four degrees warmer than normal. And so these storms have quite a bit of fuel
03:18to feed themselves on. So those are the two things that are concerning for me about this
03:23particular storm and the rest of the season, frankly.
03:27We've seen this hurricane flip-flop between a Category 3, Category 4. Is that concerning
03:33to you? Because I know before in a past conversation you said sometimes in certain circumstances
03:38a category of a storm is somewhat irrelevant. So what about here?
03:44Well what's really important to note about Beryl in this particular cycle is it was a
03:48Category 4 storm on Sunday, and then overnight it went through something called an eyewall
03:53replacement cycle. Now that's a geeky meteorology term, which means that the original eyewall
03:59of the storm is replaced by a larger eyewall. Now what typically happens in those eyewall
04:05replacement cycles is the storm might weaken just a little bit, but the downside is it
04:10gets larger. The dangerous part of the storm broadens in size. And so that's why right
04:16now as the storm's moving through the Eastern Caribbean, I'm really concerned about some
04:20of those islands. I'm concerned about Jamaica, which may be in the direct path or just in
04:25the dirty side of the eye as we call it. And as we speak here on July 1st morning, the
04:32storm has intensified back to Category 4, and we typically see that after these eyewall
04:37replacement cycles. Now as it gets further into the Western Caribbean, I do expect possible
04:43weakening and also as it moves across the Cancun parts of Mexico because it'll be overland
04:49for a while. But then when it gets back out of the water in the Gulf of Mexico, we might
04:52see it strengthen again. And that's where we have to keep an eye out because the models
04:56are not, it's still far out for U.S. impact right now. It's probably later this weekend.
05:02But if there is an impact in the U.S., but right now there's model variants. Some models
05:06have it going into Mexico. Some have it coming in near the Mexico-U.S. border near say Corpus
05:12Christi or so. And then others, you know, are still uncertain. So it's too early here
05:17on July 1st to have an exact call on where it ultimately makes landfall, whether in Mexico
05:22or in U.S. But it's certainly the U.S. Gulf Coast, particularly Texas, is in play and
05:27people need to be paying attention.
05:29Aside from people paying attention, both in Mexico and the U.S., particularly Texas, where
05:34else should people be paying attention now? Those who live on these, in these islands.
05:39And as we know, as you mentioned, it is July 1st. It is vacation season. So who needs to
05:44keep their eye out?
05:45Yeah, it's vacation season. It's cruise season. I had a friend of mine in one of the islands
05:51reach out to me because he heard about the hurricane. Now, luckily, they were on an island
05:54a bit further north, but I bet they're still getting some stormy conditions even today.
05:58I think they were there over the weekend. So if you're anywhere in sort of an island
06:02nation in the Windward Island, you're probably dealing with the storm right now as the storm
06:08moves further into the Western Caribbean.
06:11Jamaica, I'm particularly concerned about because the storm looks to be heading right to
06:15Jamaica or just to its south. And so either way, they're going to experience impacts, even
06:20parts of the southern parts of perhaps even the Dominican Republic or Haiti and parts
06:25of Cuba. Those those places will feel the impacts.
06:28But, you know, I'm really concerned about Jamaica, Grand Cayman, the Cayman Islands.
06:32Those places will perhaps feel the impacts as well.
06:35And then people that may be vacationing in Cozumel or Cancun, they'll likely have some
06:42impacts from the storm as well.
06:43And then again, once it gets back in the Gulf of Mexico, we'll have to know.
06:48I think within the next couple of days, Brittany, we'll have a better idea of what's at
06:53stake for the U.S. or northern Mexico.
06:56Typically beyond about five days, the model, there's a little bit more uncertainty in the
07:00track forecast. But within five days into four, three, two and one, we're pretty certain
07:04about where it's going.
07:06As you mentioned earlier, it is July 1st, so it is we're still in the beginning of the
07:10twenty twenty four Atlantic hurricane season and it is unprecedented to see a storm of
07:15this caliber.
07:16So does this indicate anything for what you're expecting the rest of the season?
07:20You know, I can't say that one particular storm tells me anything about storms of the
07:25future. But again, we have projected this to be a very active hurricane season.
07:30My colleagues at Colorado State University, NOAA and others that do hurricane
07:34projections for the season have all been consistent that this is going to be an active
07:39hurricane season. And it's for the reasons I mentioned, extremely warm sea surface
07:44temperatures, favorable upper atmospheric wind shear patterns likely due to La Nina.
07:50And there's something else which is a little bit geeky as well, but I'll share it
07:53because I'm a weather geek. And by the way, I host that podcast with the Weather Channel.
07:57But one of the things that we also look for is the activity of the African monsoon in
08:03the monsoons, very active.
08:05We expect it to be active and that will start to spit out these sort of systems that
08:09ultimately are born into tropical systems.
08:12And so we keep an eye on that as well.
08:13So, you know, and I have to bring this to bear.
08:17The extreme water temperatures are consistent with what we have seen as our climate
08:24continues to warm.
08:25I mean, that's just one of the places where we always see the signature of warming.
08:29I want to say one other thing, Brittany, before I lose my thought on it.
08:33Hurricane Beryl did something that we're seeing more frequently.
08:37Well, and it's alarming.
08:39When it first intensified to a major hurricane, it gained 65 knots of wind speed in 36
08:48hours. Now, our definition for rapid intensification of hurricanes is 35, 30 knots of
08:55wind speed in a 24 hour period.
08:57So in other words, it gets stronger by 30, about 35 miles per hour over a one day
09:02period. I just said Beryl did 65 knots or so on the order of 60, 70, whatever miles per
09:08hour in 36 hours.
09:10So this thing got strong really fast.
09:12That's why is that because it's got so much warm water and it's got a really favorable
09:20upper atmospheric conditions, low wind shear.
09:22So that thing can just really explode.
09:25And that's what we're saying. Brittany, we're seeing more of these rapidly intensifying
09:29hurricanes. Let me tell you why that's dangerous.
09:31It's dangerous because as a storm is approaching one of the islands or if it gets close to
09:36making landfall, people may go to sleep thinking they're dealing with a category one or
09:40two storm and they wake up, boom, you got a category four storm.
09:44So there's the rapid intensification is an increasingly concerning problem that we see.
09:50And do you think we're going to see rapidly intensifying storms more this season?
09:57You know, the trends have certainly been in that favor over the last couple of years,
10:03going back even to 2020.
10:05I mean, from 2020 onward, we've seen a lot of rapidly intensifying storms.
10:11And that's that's because, Brittany, that pool of water out there is quite warm.
10:15I mean, the water, the warm water, this what we call ocean heat content, the hurricanes
10:21drop on that.
10:22And if they have this ample warm water and they start to develop and there's a really
10:26favorable upper level environment with not a lot of wind shear tearing that vertically
10:30direct storm apart, that storm can just blow and it gets stronger.
10:35The pressure in the center of the storm goes down.
10:38So when we see decreasing pressure in a hurricane, that means it's getting stronger.
10:42The winds respond by getting faster.
10:44So it's all very much connected.
10:46So that's why we very much keep an eye on the sea surface temperatures and the upper
10:50level conditions as well.
10:51You mentioned when you were writing for Forbes about Hurricane Beryl that there is
10:55another storm that you're keeping your eye out.
10:57You're going to write about it later.
10:59But is there anything you can tell us about that now?
11:01You know, I've looked at the latest model projections.
11:04They're starting to back off of that one a little bit.
11:06And part of the reason actually may be because of Beryl.
11:10As Hurricane Beryl churns along, it churns up colder water behind it and the ocean.
11:16And and that could be part of the reasons why the models are starting to sort of back
11:21off on that storm now.
11:22It still may have briefly the latest I saw for the models this morning on July 1st is
11:27it's still resolving some type of system.
11:29But whether it actually gets to anything beyond a tropical storm or even to a tropical
11:33storm now remains to be seen because it may be feeling some of the effect.
11:37Remember, I said that warm ocean water is important, but Beryl is so strong, it's
11:42churning up deep, colder water.
11:44So that next system would have to come behind it.
11:47It may be feeling the effects of some of that what we call upwelling, that churning up
11:51of colder water.
11:52And so I think it remains to be seen.
11:54But the key message here, Brittany, and you're spot on with bringing this up, we're not
11:58going to be able to let our guard down this hurricane season.
12:01It's going to be an extremely busy hurricane season.
12:03I'll give you a little nugget for the listeners and viewers.
12:06You may be familiar with the fact that in recent years, which is astounding in itself,
12:11hurricane seasons have been so active that we've run out of names on the name list.
12:16When that happened in the past, we had to use the Greek alphabet.
12:20So once we ran out of the names, we'd start with Hurricane Alpha, Beta, Gamma, and so
12:24on. This year, there's been a change.
12:26There actually is now a supplemental name list that would be used.
12:31Only reason I'm bringing that up is I believe that we could have an active enough
12:35season that we may run out of names this year.
12:38Well, Dr. Shepherd, we certainly have a lot to look out for this hurricane season with
12:43Hurricane Beryl and beyond.
12:45And as the situation continues to develop, I hope you come back on.
12:49And inform our viewers.
12:51Dr. Shepherd, per usual, always a pleasure.
12:54Thank you so much.
12:55Thank you, Brittany.
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