كيف غيرت OPEC الوضع في سوق النفط؟

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Transcript

00:00How did the OPEC Plus extension change the low-production agreement until the end of the union from the oil market?

00:06The most prominent was the International Energy Agency, which greatly changed its expectations

00:11to say that because of this extension, we are in a kind of supply deficit

00:21and the reason for this is basically the extension.

00:25These expectations that were adjusted were made after the OPEC Plus extension until the end of June

00:32while before that we saw that we had a kind of deficit in the export.

00:38Why did the market today change in this way?

00:42The issue is not only related to the side of the expo that the International Energy Agency talked about

00:48but when we look at the demand, we had a rise in global demand for oil with more than 2 million barrels per day

00:56which exceeded all expectations.

00:58On the other hand, if we look only at the last month, we had a decline in global reserves of 1.7 million barrels

01:08and this 1.7 million barrels we had a decline in the reserves on a daily basis

01:13and this also contributed to the decline in the expo and the shift towards a supply deficit

01:18which is expected to continue with us as long as OPEC is committed to this agreement in the coming period.

01:26The dilemma is that the prices of oil during the past period were not only pricing the supply deficit

01:34but they were also pricing the geopolitical risks

01:37and the rise of geopolitical risks that we have seen are raising prices for Brent over the level of 90 dollars.

01:44This is a dilemma not only for the central banks in their fight against inflation

01:50but also for a very important file this year which is the file of the US presidential elections.

01:56There are expectations that the price of gasoline in the US may exceed 4 dollars

02:01and the highest prices will be from the summer of 2022 whenever we get closer to the election date

02:07if the prices remain at these levels.

02:10This is a very controversial file that will be in the elections that will be held on the 5th of November at the end of the year.

02:17If we look at the future expectations, all expectations indicate that we will remain in a supply deficit

02:23as long as OPEC continues to lower production levels

02:27especially since Russia has announced that it will focus more not on exports but on production levels.