00:00 I'm Ezra Araya, reporting on this week's burning issues and the biggest stories.
00:05 This is the Manila Times.
00:07 China slams what it calls a "gunboat diplomacy" as the Philippines and the United States kicked
00:12 off their annual Balikatan exercises, or joint military exercises, Monday.
00:19 During the Western Pacific Naval Symposium in Qingdao, to which the Philippines was absent,
00:25 Vice Chairman of the China Central Military Commission Zhang Yujia slammed the Philippines
00:31 and the US for provocative military drills.
00:35 Despite China's aggressive actions, Zhang said China remains committed to resolving
00:39 maritime disputes through dialogue.
00:43 Filipino and American troops kicked off their military exercises last April 22.
00:48 The training focused on defending Philippine territory against external threats.
00:53 Other countries from Asia and Europe also took part as observers.
00:57 The joint drills is set to run until May 10.
01:02 Joining us from Washington, DC, is maritime security expert and director of Sea Light,
01:08 shedding light on maritime grey zones.
01:11 Let us welcome former US Air Force Colonel Raymond Powell.
01:16 Welcome to the Manila Times, sir.
01:18 Good morning.
01:19 How are you?
01:20 Sir, for my first question, China criticizes the latest joint military exercises between
01:26 the Philippines and the US and claims they remain committed to resolving maritime issues
01:33 through dialogue.
01:34 So, this was a few days before their latest aggressive maneuvers in the West Philippine
01:40 Sea.
01:41 So, my question is, why is there a disconnect between what China is saying versus what they're
01:46 doing?
01:47 Well, the disconnect is really between China's stated aspirations and its actual aggressions.
01:55 So China has, you know, for a long time expressed an interest in having dialogue and resolving
02:01 matters peacefully and those kinds of things.
02:04 The problem is that its ambition is to be, is to dominate the West Philippine Sea.
02:10 And that comes into direct conflict with the Philippine sovereign rights.
02:14 So those two things can't be reconciled.
02:17 And so China essentially tries to sort of wrap its ambitions in a covering of reasonableness
02:26 and sort of a gentle approach.
02:31 And yet, of course, the pictures that we see that come out of the West Philippine Sea that
02:34 were released by the AFP or by the Philippine Coast Guard show that that's not actually
02:40 their approach.
02:41 So it's quite confusing, right?
02:43 Because a few months ago, there's their presence in the West Philippine Sea or what
02:48 they claim the South China Sea is constant.
02:51 And just a few months ago, hundreds of naval ships were there.
02:55 So the Philippines has been in this long time, a long running maritime dispute with China,
03:01 right?
03:02 And then, which they took to the International Permanent Court of Arbitration in 2013.
03:07 And we, and the Philippines won in 2016.
03:09 But China, however, has consistently refused to recognize the ruling.
03:15 So ignoring a series of protests that we make almost every month here in the Philippines.
03:21 So why do you think is that?
03:23 Well, China knew going in that the ruling was going to go against them because their
03:28 claims fall outside the structure of international law.
03:33 It's easy to overlook what a remarkable achievement the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea was
03:39 when it was put together back in the 1980s.
03:43 And China eventually signed the convention and therefore, you know, agreed to its oversight.
03:52 But it's 9-line claim or a 10-line claim has always fallen outside of that.
03:59 And so China has tried to do both at the same time, claimed to be agreeing with international
04:04 law and yet cutting out, you know, the, it's South China Sea claim, something separate
04:10 from international law to say, well, this international law doesn't apply to this part
04:15 because this is historically ours.
04:18 And so those two things were not going to be reconciled in the Hague.
04:21 It was always going to go the Philippines way unless something, you know, nefarious
04:26 from outside intervened, but it did not.
04:28 The judges decided fairly, which is why China decided not to participate at all.
04:34 It had no chance there.
04:35 In your recent podcast entitled, "Why Should We Care If China Is the World's Biggest Navy?"
04:41 you talked about China's growing naval power.
04:44 So what do you think are its implications for peace?
04:48 Well, what it does is it makes China exceptionally confident that it can eventually prevail in
04:57 the West Philippine Sea.
04:58 And so that is a big problem because a highly confident PLA Navy, a highly confident China,
05:07 when it comes to this long-term endeavor, means that you have a China that's going to
05:13 be less likely to want to negotiate on even terms.
05:19 It's going to push its claims to the very limit.
05:22 And it believes that it can out-escalate the Philippines because it has more capacity,
05:28 which is why the Philippines recently has recognized that its best option is to network
05:34 itself in with strong allies and partners like the United States and Japan to try to
05:40 dissuade China to interrupt or diminish China's confidence so that China has to recalculate
05:48 and maybe not think that its ambitions are quite so close as perhaps they would otherwise.
05:55 So the G7, the group of countries expressed support on the Philippines' claims on the
06:00 West Philippine Sea.
06:01 So did all the other countries.
06:04 However, China seems to dispute those claims.
06:07 So how else can we achieve a common ground in this issue?
06:11 Well, I think common ground is going to be very hard to come by because China's ambitions
06:15 are so expansionist and so large and so, frankly, unreasonable.
06:20 So what the Philippines has been doing has been trying to increase its leverage so that,
06:25 first of all, again, China does not feel like it has already won, but it has to feel like
06:31 it must continue to push.
06:34 So unfortunately, this does not lead to a resolution of the matter, but perhaps it can
06:41 push out China's belief that it can quickly get this done into the future, perhaps to
06:48 a time when the Philippines' leverage improves.
06:52 So that's essentially what the Philippines has been doing, is trying to, through international
06:57 support and additional expenditures on its maritime forces, just trying to improve its
07:04 leverage so that when it goes into a room to negotiate with China, it doesn't feel like
07:09 it's standing there alone and unequipped.
07:11 All right.
07:12 Thank you for that, sir.
07:13 Maritime security expert and former U.S. Air Force Director of Sea Light Raymond Powell.
07:19 And if you want to know more about maritime gray zones, catch him in his podcast.
07:23 All right.
07:24 Thank you so much, sir, for your time.
07:26 Thank you.
07:34 Bye.
07:35 Bye.
07:35 [BLANK_AUDIO]
Comments