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00:00 During this week, the investor was watching the numbers and data of the US inflation since February,
00:09 especially that it is the most prominent numbers after the last US federal meeting,
00:15 which established the interest rates.
00:17 We witnessed to a large extent that we still have a price for three low interest rates in the second half of this year.
00:27 The numbers came to a large extent to the expected, there were no major surprises.
00:32 If we look at the Core PCE indicator, which is the indicator of the basic consumer spending,
00:38 which is to remove food and energy prices, we witnessed annual reading at 2.8% in February.
00:45 We witnessed monthly increases of 0.3% according to the expectations.
00:49 But the monthly reading was adjusted in January to be 0.5% in February,
00:59 and the annual reading was recorded at 2.9%.
01:04 If we look at the headline numbers, which represent all products and inputs,
01:12 they came to 0.3%, the expectations were at 0.4%,
01:17 but the focus of the federal and the markets is largely on the Core numbers.
01:22 Where did the increase come from?
01:24 Specifically, if we look at the headline numbers, the most prominent increase was in energy prices.
01:30 We were watching this during the last period,
01:33 based on the increases we saw in gasoline prices.
01:37 The increase in energy prices was at about 2.3%,
01:41 and the other element we were watching was related to the services sector.
01:47 The inflation was at 13%.
01:53 So energy prices began to decline again to the numbers of inflation and its rise.
01:59 This is not only related to America,
02:01 because even some of the inflationary figures in Europe that we saw during this week
02:06 also showed an increase in inflation due to the rise in energy prices.
02:10 The second sign that we focused on in these figures
02:14 is related to consumer spending,
02:17 which rose 0.8% in February,
02:21 which was higher than expected.
02:23 Why did we focus on this element?
02:25 Because consumer spending ultimately means higher demand,
02:29 which means higher prices.
02:31 How did the investor price these figures?
02:34 To a large extent, there were no changes in the June low price,
02:39 which is now expected to be around 64% and 65%
02:44 We are still waiting for more economic data.
02:48 But the most significant risk in terms of inflationary figures
02:51 is not only related to America,
02:53 but also to the rise in energy prices worldwide.
02:57 Whether due to geopolitical risks or market priorities,
03:01 these increases do not only affect the basic figures,
03:05 but also affect the services sector.
03:08 Because today, any company that works in the services sector,
03:11 if its fuel prices rise,
03:14 it will be forced to raise prices,
03:18 which is what makes the central bank's task very difficult.
03:22 [TAKE VO]