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00:00 Joining us from Pittsburgh is Colin Clark a senior research fellow at the Suphon Center, New York based research group. Hello to you Colin.
00:06 First of all, there is there are some questions about who's
00:11 responsible for this attack. What do you make of ISIS-K's a claim of responsibility? Is it credible?
00:18 Absolutely, I don't think we have reason to doubt the Islamic State Khorasan's claims here.
00:25 Rarely does ISIS make a claim for an attack that they weren't behind. That coupled with the warnings from US intelligence
00:32 and just the video of the attack where we see all the hallmarks of a classic Islamic State attack, the tactics techniques and procedures.
00:41 Clearly these attackers were well trained. In all likelihood this very very much was an ISIS-K attack.
00:48 But perhaps one hallmark missing though, the assailants were caught alive. Aren't they often
00:54 prepared to
00:56 take their own lives wearing suicide vests or something of the sort?
00:58 Often but not always.
01:02 In fact, if the plan was to
01:05 conduct a follow-on attack, they would have attempted to stay alive here, even though they were ultimately apprehended by Russian security services.
01:13 During a series of attacks like we saw in Paris
01:16 eight years back. Colin, do you expect a resurgence, more extremist activity to follow?
01:24 Absolutely. In fact, you know at the Sufan Center, we've been writing about this.
01:28 We've been speaking about this and warning about this. This is the latest in a steady uptick of
01:35 Islamic State plots, many of which have been disrupted.
01:38 But there have been successful attacks in Iran and Turkey this year alone and several attempts or plots disrupted in Europe.
01:46 What does this say about the security and the intelligence in Russia that
01:52 the US caught wind of this a couple of weeks before it happened and yet Vladimir Putin recently re-elected
01:59 didn't see it coming?
02:02 Yeah, it shows that US-Russian relations are at an endear.
02:07 They're supposed to be a professionalism between intelligence services.
02:11 And so one would think that the Russians would heed this warning and take it seriously.
02:15 We don't know and we likely never will. If the Russians merely dismiss this,
02:21 or if they, you know, attempted to disrupt this plot and simply weren't able to.
02:25 Right now, they're going to save face. You're going to see a lot of disinformation and obfuscation.
02:30 But let it be known, you know, the US remains among the most professional intelligence services in the world
02:37 and under its duty to warn was simply carrying out that duty.
02:40 Yeah, and Putin's explanation, or at least his version of events, was that these assailants were headed towards
02:47 Ukraine and that someone across the border was going to provide assistance to them.
02:52 Fling, is there any chance that that could have been possible?
02:56 I mean, look, anything's possible. I think it remains really unlikely.
03:02 However, look, there's people that are doing mental gymnastics and bending over backwards
03:07 to find an explanation for what, you know, who's behind this attack.
03:11 I'm always a big advocate of listening to the terrorists when they tell us
03:16 what their targets are. And they've long talked about the Kremlin as a target,
03:20 talking about the Russians spilling Muslim blood in Afghanistan, in Chechnya, in Syria.
03:25 So, you know, this is kind of a case of Occam's razor here.
03:29 The simplest explanation is very much, you know, the right one.
03:34 And so let's assume that this is the right version of it, and said ISIS-K is responsible.
03:41 The Kremlin's version of events, do you think the Russian people will buy it?
03:45 Look, the Russian people are constantly spoon-fed mis- and disinformation.
03:52 So it's hard for me to say what Russian people believe.
03:55 But, you know, there's always going to be skeptics out there.
03:59 Certainly in the United States, there's no shortage of conspiracy theorists
04:03 blaming the CIA, blaming Israel, blaming all number of actors.
04:06 But again, let's look at the data. Let's look at the evidence.
04:09 And, you know, we're likely going to see that all trails lead back to the Islamic State.
04:14 And in the aftermath of these attacks, do you think Putin and the Kremlin might
04:19 crack down further or find a way to perhaps strengthen his grip on power?
04:24 Yeah, look, dictators always use events like this to consolidate power.
04:31 And he very well could use this event to conscript more forces for his war in Ukraine.
04:36 So taking advantage of a terrible tragedy on Russian soil to further his illegal war of Ukraine.
04:43 And again, consolidate power within Russia proper.
04:46 All right, Colin. Thank you very much.
04:48 Colin Clark speaking to us from the Su-Fan Center.
04:51 Thank you.
04:51 Thank you.