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00:00 And we can now bring in Natia Saskuria, who's Associate Fellow of Russian Policy at the
00:06 Royal United Services Institute, connecting from Tbilisi in Georgia.
00:11 Thanks for being here.
00:12 So we're into year three now.
00:14 How long do you see this going on?
00:16 Yes, we are indeed.
00:20 And it's very hard to say how long this will go on.
00:24 Obviously, it's two years since the beginning of the unprovoked Russian invasion against
00:29 Ukraine, of Ukraine.
00:31 And the future seems very gloomy, I would say.
00:36 And unfortunately, at the beginning, two years ago, Ukrainian, there were much hopes once
00:43 we saw that Ukrainian peoples were demonstrating their bravery and resistance and prevented
00:50 Russia from accomplishing its goals, which included taking down the Ukrainian government
00:55 and the capital.
00:56 But as we speak, there is much uncertainty and Ukrainian resistance is still there.
01:02 But there are questions around the continuous Western support, for example, which I suppose
01:08 is one of the major questions that will be decisive in terms of how and when this war
01:14 will end.
01:15 Well, Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, would you say he's in a stronger or weaker
01:20 position than since this war began?
01:23 Well, Putin certainly believes that the momentum is on his side right now, because certainly
01:33 he feels like there are some cracks when it comes to Western support towards Ukraine,
01:39 some sort of Ukraine fatigue.
01:41 And also, Russia has several advantages in terms of how much, how many more hundreds
01:49 of thousands of men it can mobilize, basically.
01:52 Unlike Ukraine.
01:54 And we have seen in the recent past, a couple of days ago, that they have managed to take
02:01 Avdivka, which was an achievement for Russia, as much as it does not have much strategic
02:10 value, it is still very important.
02:12 And Putin definitely feels like he has some upper hand when it comes to the current situation,
02:19 because he certainly does not feel like the West is as united as it used to be before
02:25 when it comes to helping Ukraine and especially delivering military aid.
02:31 Talk about the aid then.
02:33 What difference will this 50 billion euro aid package from the EU make?
02:38 And waiting for the 60 billion from the US, how important is that going to be?
02:45 It is extremely important.
02:47 It's definitely good news that despite the Hungarian opposition, the EU managed to get
02:53 together and achieve consensus when it comes to providing this crucial aid to Ukraine.
02:59 Unfortunately, we cannot say the same when it comes to the US's support, because as we
03:07 know, there is much uncertainty on the US's side and there is a strong Republican opposition
03:12 towards long term support, providing long term support to Ukraine.
03:17 But we have to understand that Putin, despite the sanctions, he has been able to ramp up
03:25 weapons production at home, mobilize men and has the ability to mobilize even further hundreds
03:31 of thousands of men if needed.
03:33 And at the same time, countries such as Iran, North Korea have been able to supply Russia
03:37 with drones and weapons that Russia is using on a daily basis against civilian population.
03:42 So against this background, of course, any sort of military aid and economic aid that
03:49 will be directed to Ukraine is extremely important.
03:53 Natia Saskuria, thank you very much for your insights.
03:57 Thank you for having me.