00:00 Mark chicken chicken analytics joins us every other Thursday to give his technical
00:05 Fundamental outlook on the markets you heard us ranting. We saw you in the back
00:10 Market now I saw you chuckling there. I mean
00:14 Chips here. What do you do with a rocket ship like SMC? Yeah, you get Alan Greenspan on
00:21 talking about irrational exuberance
00:24 I
00:24 Mean I've had this mark since I bought it back in September because I thought it was could be an AI story
00:30 Eventually, it really sat there and did nothing for about four months
00:34 Yeah, then started to blast off when Nvidia started to go then they came out
00:38 I was obviously the guidance, you know that the catalyst here was the guidance was much higher than everybody expected and they haven't stopped buying
00:45 It's sense. I mean, I've sold two-thirds of the position here now, or maybe even three-quarters of the position
00:51 I'm thinking about ringing the rest of the register. Well, what do you do?
00:54 Like I mean, I'm not in rocket ships that often that go up, you know, 300% six weeks
00:59 Do you ring that stuff you pick some round number like they're pushing a thousand, you know
01:05 Sell into that craziness at some point you got a part company and say thank you
01:11 you're doing the right thing from I know you know you're doing the right thing from a
01:14 traders point of view you sell a third you sell a third and
01:19 You know on the first double you sell a third on
01:22 Quadruple and then you look for a spike to get out of the rest. There's no right or wrong. It's a winner
01:28 That's yeah, you know take it to the bank
01:32 Right, what about some of your picks out there Dennis you want to stay on this I AI train here
01:38 Yeah, I mean let's get his thoughts on Nvidia here as well because obviously everybody talks about it
01:45 You know, see if he talks about 10,000 times a day. We talked about at least twice a day
01:48 Probably I mean we're all-time highs basically a couple bucks off all-time highs here
01:53 It's kind of consolidated with this. This one doesn't feel like SMCI where it's one parabolic and went up 300%
02:00 I mean, it's up 40% this year. It's much more reasonable to move, but the company's enormous. What are your thoughts here?
02:06 I mean on Nvidia. Well, I'd say as long as people keep comparing it to Cisco in 2000. It's okay
02:14 When they stop talking that way then you got a problem, I you know, AI is real the boom is there
02:20 They have the best chips that keep coming out with new generations and faster chips
02:24 When you have a tiger by the tail have some sort of mental stop
02:30 But there's no place to put a stop on something like this
02:32 so yeah, I've
02:35 Been seeing that a lot that people are overlaying the chart of Cisco on Nvidia or even overlaying the you know
02:41 Financial times I think it hit the one of the major media had I'm not sure was the Financial Times
02:45 But I thought they've been all over the internet for months. That's see that's the point
02:50 they've been all over the internet for six to nine months, so
02:53 They're in stop-clock territory gonna be right twice a day so
03:00 Hey, it's a monolith. Would I buy it here? No, but I tell you my wife Sandy has had it since
03:09 2020
03:11 2021 she wrote it down in the bear market and stayed and then added that's the key
03:16 She added on the way back out. She brought it in March of 2023. She added and that positions up
03:22 164%
03:25 Mark, you watch me holding is she still holding at all or has she pieced out? I I
03:29 Twisted her arm about two weeks ago when it spiked and she sold a third of her position, but that's it
03:35 She won't get to sleep in the basement. I
03:39 Don't want to wait. We're going up
03:41 But looking ahead there are so many different ways to play AI from the consulting companies
03:49 Which are going to benefit mightily because they've got a you know corporations
03:53 Know they're behind the curve and so they've got to go to people like Gartner
03:57 That's why Gartner is off the charts, but we talked about GIB last week
04:01 and you know the various consultants that are going to be brought in here to
04:07 Tell companies what to do basically, I mean some people know like service now if you're looking for
04:14 You know a company that got a lot of juice out of AI. It's in their business. It's service now
04:20 so you got a little dip and
04:22 You've just got to buy these things on dips whether it's an earnings related guidance related dip or just people taking profits
04:29 but there's
04:30 There are so many different ways to play AI
04:33 There's a company that I like that took it on the chin Dynatrace DT
04:38 After earnings it was a great earnings report, but you know that that's what can happen
04:44 When people sour on a stock that's had an AI
04:49 Spike would you be a buyer of this DT dip?
04:52 Yeah, but but very gently because it's broken below my long-term trendline. So the power gauge is now neutral plus on it
05:01 It's no longer bullish. Yeah, so cyber security plays for the AI trade. Oh, yeah
05:06 Absolutely. Well Palo Alto reports next week if you've got cojones
05:12 Report reports on the 20th and God knows what yeah, they're a crowd strike obviously
05:21 fortnet
05:23 we've previously recommended
05:25 and that that chart has totally reversed and
05:30 You know, these are great plays obviously cyber is where
05:34 AI is gonna get really
05:39 Sexy
05:42 Another industry that's been I guess sexy over the past few weeks has been crypto a lot of crypto stocks running mark
05:49 Are you watching any of those coinbase up?
05:51 big over the last week or so
05:54 I'm only watching him because coinbase got a bullish power gauge rating on November 20th and the stock was about a
06:02 hundred
06:03 Other than that, I have no interest
06:05 In any crypto at all. No, it's just it's my bias
06:09 didn't
06:12 buy him on the first wave two years ago and
06:15 Avoided the sell-off and I just not a believer. I'm not the guy to go to for crypto
06:22 Yeah, I'd rather stick with the AI trade over the crypto trade right now as well. Well, I mean, it's totally different
06:28 One you're buying a puff of smoke and the other you're buying some serious stuff
06:33 at this point in the market I
06:35 Use the power gauge, but I'll look for formations which is goes back to my old roots as a you know a pattern
06:44 Chartist, but when I see a triple top here and the second high
06:49 The third high has come under our long-term trendline, which is around 190
06:53 So it stopped that rally of the earnings report stopped right on our long-term trendline now chicken money flow is still fabulous
07:02 They've been accumulating Apple since late October
07:06 Now when I say accumulate the chicken oscillator or chicken money flow was meant to
07:12 Oscillate around zero. So if you get a sell-off of five to eight days
07:17 You would normally expect that the money flow would go in the red which it did in August and September
07:24 Stayed green on every one of the sell-offs and what that means is that people are coming in late in the day to buy it
07:31 So well, that's a port - when would it go red with took out the 180 would probably go the other way like that huge support
07:38 We're looking at money flow or the power gauge. Well both well money flow. I don't know
07:43 it's a dependent on volume and where it closes in its range, but
07:47 You know, there are plenty of stocks with red money flow
07:51 Look at charter communications or any of the the stocks with bearish ratings
07:55 so
07:57 you know, I'm torn between Apple as
08:00 An avoid or Apple is to buy the dip but the chicken money flow says by the dip
08:06 But the trend says, you know, there are better
08:09 You got a found indicated with your own name on it mark before before we let you go here
08:14 I just want to talk rates for a second. We talked about the bond traders
08:18 You've had a decent sell-off here. You saw the reaction to the CPI number. We kind of looked at is a
08:24 Overreaction here. We're looking at steady as she goes and rates not going up going down a lot
08:31 Just give us your outlook after that
08:33 Little bit hotter overreaction to the CPI number on Tuesday
08:37 Well, first of all anybody who was looking for five to seven rate cuts in
08:41 2024 was smoking pot. I mean, come on
08:44 and you know
08:47 Three to four maybe now. I think it's two to three and coming after
08:52 after the political conventions in the summer, so
08:57 What I like is that the market has found its footing very quickly at the 21-day average and buyers came in on
09:07 Tuesday in the final half hour and pushed it up a hundred almost 1% about eight tenths of a percent
09:14 So I think where this is going to bite is in the construction
09:18 Industry in the home building industry because they were really counting on rates mortgage rates dropping
09:24 Down into the mid six to low six and now they've ticked back up again
09:31 To above 7% so I think this is going to bite in the mortgage home builder stocks mortgage related and
09:39 So you're seeing it already the chart patterns and stuff like dr. Horton
09:45 Just not looking that great
09:48 but I think in general the stock market is the stock market does a lot of money on the sidelines still and
09:54 Interestingly, I think the biggest key to figuring out what's going on is there's still whatever four trillion
10:02 Money market or five trillion. I don't get have the number right now
10:06 So where the money come from to fuel this rally? Well, it's coming from foreign money. It's coming from
10:12 The bond market and
10:16 There's plenty of fuel here. This markets not quitting little decoupling that maybe between the bonds. Oh, definitely
10:23 Yeah, and you but be mindful if you're a trader particularly that you you're entering the period
10:31 In the election year cycle between mid-february and the end of May when you do get choppy
10:36 So this this is the challenging period end of May on you're in pretty good shape
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