Why Patriots Will SPEND BIG in Free Agency | Pats Interference - video Dailymotion

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Andrew breaks down why the CBA will force the Patriots to spend in free agency and Jerod Mayo's latest coaching additions before answering mailbag questions on the Pats' next quarterback, the NFL Draft and lots more.  You can also listen and Subscribe to Pats Interference on iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, and at CLNSMedia.com two times a week!  This episode of the Pats Interference Podcast is brought to you by Fanduel Sportsbook, New customers, join today and you’ll get TWO HUNDRED DOLLARS in BONUS BETS if your first bet of FIVE DOLLARS or more wins. Just visit FanDuel.com/BOSTON to sign up. Make every moment more with FanDuel, an official sportsbook partner of the NFL.   Must be 21+ and present in select states. FanDuel is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino, LLC. $10 first deposit required. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable bonus bets that expire 7 days after receipt. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Virginia and Vermont. Call 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 in Arizona, 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat in Connecticut, 1-800-9-WITH-IT in Indiana, 1-800-522-4700 or visit ksgamblinghelp.com in Kansas, 1-877-770-STOP in Louisiana, visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland, visit 1800gambler.net in West Virginia, or call 1-800-522-4700 in Wyoming. Hope is here. Visit GamblingHelpLineMA.org or call (800) 327-5050 for 24/7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8HOPE-NY or text HOPENY in New York.

Transcript

00:00 (upbeat music)

00:02 All right, so if you had told me two years ago

00:12 that on the 150th episode of this podcast,

00:15 I would be sitting here alone on a non-snow snow day,

00:20 I would have told you, what a loser.

00:24 But instead, I mean, we could say that,

00:26 I wanna say thank you.

00:28 And we will get to that reason why here in a second.

00:30 Solo episode today, we're talking Patriots coaching changes,

00:33 why they will spend in free agency,

00:35 and I will guarantee you this here on Tuesday, February 13th

00:39 why I'm gonna be going away for a little bit.

00:41 And then 14 mailbag questions at the end,

00:43 you guys brought it, I appreciate you.

00:45 And as I said at the top, thank you.

00:47 And the reason is for this.

00:49 There have never been more menu items in sports media

00:53 where you can watch, you can read, you can listen,

00:56 you can follow, you can flip the bird,

00:57 you can engage however you want.

00:58 And thousands of you routinely come back here

01:02 to hang out, listen to me yammer and talk

01:04 like I'm running 10 minutes late.

01:06 And that means of course a lot

01:07 because time is something we don't get back,

01:10 but we can invest.

01:11 And our numbers tell me that you like the return

01:14 on your investment here with Pat's Interference,

01:16 brought to you by FanDuel, the exclusive wagering partner

01:18 of the CLNS Media Network.

01:20 And I will tell you 100% without a doubt or hesitation

01:24 that I love my return on the investment

01:28 of this time with you.

01:28 Because this is a place that's not like writing

01:31 where it's me sitting alone in my own head

01:34 where I spend enough time anyway.

01:35 This is connection, this is community,

01:37 the two best parts of this jobs.

01:38 And we get to know each other a little bit.

01:41 So we've grown, we continue to grow.

01:42 I'm talking about guest lists, new segments.

01:44 You know, if you've been listening a couple of weeks ago,

01:46 some of you will be featured on this podcast,

01:48 the three to four minutes, if you like.

01:50 And whether it's the feedback, the ratings and reviews,

01:53 please keep them coming to Apple, Spotify.

01:55 They've all been tremendous.

01:56 You've made me better.

01:57 And that is something I treasure and value.

02:00 That said, there will be no shows

02:03 for the next eight, nine days or so.

02:05 I'm going on a week long vacation,

02:07 taking my wife to Spain.

02:08 Shout out Scott's Cheap Flights

02:10 and yours of Marriott Points for making this possible.

02:12 Now don't get this twisted.

02:13 I am pumped beyond belief to go headfirst

02:17 into draft coverage and then for agency

02:20 and rumors from the combine

02:21 and stuff you don't really care about,

02:23 but I'm going to go on anyway, quarterback hand size,

02:25 and I'm going to mock draft you to death.

02:27 But you will get to know the front office,

02:30 the Patriots new coaching staff,

02:32 the quarterbacks better than you ever could have imagined.

02:34 I'm just going to hit pause

02:35 because this is a good six day mental break.

02:37 Step away from the first time since mid July,

02:39 zoom out, spend quality time

02:41 and get some good thinking done

02:42 about how we want to shape our coverage here in the pod,

02:45 mine at the Herald, and just get to know a new era.

02:47 Like this is fairly uncharted territory,

02:50 obviously in New England, you know why.

02:52 So I will come back later next week with an episode,

02:55 actually two episodes, refreshed and ready to go.

02:57 And speaking of Spain, if any of you out there,

03:00 and we are internationally here,

03:01 we are global with Pats interference,

03:03 have any recommendations of Valencia, I'm all ears.

03:07 Okay, coaching news.

03:08 So since we last hung out,

03:10 Brian Belichick and Mike Pellegrino said,

03:13 "Eh, I think I'll come back."

03:15 So they will be once again,

03:17 the safeties coach and quarterbacks coach for the Patriots.

03:20 Dante Hightower also said, "I think I'm gonna come back."

03:24 And he did, Drew Wilkins,

03:26 new outside linebackers coach, Tyquan Underwood,

03:27 if you remember, 2011, phenomenal high top fade,

03:32 less than stellar release the day before the Super Bowl

03:36 when the Patriots lost again to the Giants.

03:38 He is now your assistant wide receivers coach.

03:40 Meanwhile, more recently, Will Long out as tight ends coach.

03:43 He is following Bill O'Brien to BC

03:45 where he will be Bill O'Brien's offensive coordinator.

03:48 And so all of this, you know, shuffling around

03:51 leaves running backs, receivers, lead receivers coach

03:54 and tight ends coach

03:55 as the only position coach vacancies on staff.

03:59 And people have asked, Patrick, I see you.

04:01 Oh, who's gonna be the next receivers coach?

04:03 Is it Troy Brown?

04:03 Is it gonna be someone new?

04:05 And my first thought, and I'm not alone in this,

04:07 ran to Chad O'Shea,

04:08 but Chad O'Shea, who used to be in New England,

04:11 more recently been with the Browns,

04:13 also their past game coordinator,

04:14 you think would have happened by now?

04:16 And Troy Brown, while we're on him,

04:18 may or may not have been up on his contract

04:21 'cause coach's contract's typically run

04:22 for two to three years.

04:23 He just finished his third year as a receivers coach.

04:26 The bottom line is that job is open.

04:27 The longer it goes on, the less likely it is

04:29 that Troy Brown returns.

04:30 So that's all I have on that.

04:32 We had a couple more mailback questions

04:33 on the receivers coach.

04:35 As for the guys they hired and kept,

04:37 I like virtually all of these moves.

04:40 And Brian Belichick and Mike Pellegrino,

04:42 who will come back for their fifth and,

04:44 oh, excuse me, fifth and six years

04:48 in these same positions.

04:50 Scratch that.

04:52 Who will each come back for their fifth years

04:55 in these same positions.

04:56 Brian Belichick coaching safeties,

04:57 Mike Pellegrino coaching quarterbacks,

04:59 is a great move for Gerard Mayo,

05:02 not only because they're good at what they do,

05:03 and they've grown into these roles.

05:05 It's not like Brian Belichick showed up on day one

05:07 and was suddenly the best safeties coach

05:08 anyone had ever heard of.

05:10 But Gerard Mayo and his defensive coordinator,

05:13 Marcus Covington, have all of their experience

05:16 playing, coaching, coming up in this system

05:18 in the front seven.

05:20 It's a good balance to keep guys

05:21 who not only have spent their entire careers, virtually,

05:24 coaching in the secondary, but know the language,

05:27 know the players, know the vision,

05:29 and can balance out that experience, obviously.

05:31 Now, in the middle is Dante Hightower,

05:34 who will be following in Gerard Mayo's footsteps

05:36 as the inside linebackers coach.

05:37 And here's the thing, I have no clue

05:41 whether Dante Hightower will rise up the ranks

05:43 in a way that Gerard Mayo did,

05:45 as the fastest rising assistant ever under Bill Belichick,

05:47 before, of course, he became his successor.

05:49 But what I do know is this,

05:51 he was a smart, well-spoken, incredibly respected

05:55 and driven player when he was here in New England.

05:58 Those are traits, to me, if I'm making a list of guys

06:01 who want to go from wearing a helmet to a headset,

06:04 I want at the top four of my list,

06:06 because those same things will make,

06:09 in some parts, a good head coach, or a good assistant coach.

06:11 And there's a lot to learn from Dante Hightower,

06:14 but he, of any list you want to cut up, in whatever era,

06:17 will be at the top of Patriots players

06:18 who make sense as a future coach.

06:20 He's in the building, working with Drew Wilkins,

06:23 who, if you don't know, and this hire, I think,

06:25 was actually Super Bowl Sunday.

06:27 Drew Wilkins spent the first dozen years

06:29 of his career in Baltimore,

06:30 goes up from video operations intern

06:33 to outside linebackers coach, overlaps the Matt Judon,

06:35 who made two Pro Bowls under his watch,

06:37 goes to New York the last two seasons

06:39 under Wink Martindale, who gets let go.

06:41 Wilkins is out of a job.

06:43 As far as experienced coaches who have been in good systems

06:47 and worked with a position that you need

06:49 and have good talent, Wilkins is a good fit,

06:51 not to mention takes some off of Dante Hightower's plate.

06:55 Tyquan Underwood spent the last two years at Pitt,

06:57 two years before that at Rutgers, his alma mater.

06:59 He was the only assistant kept on staff at Pitt

07:02 as Pat Narduzzi just freaking cleaned house yet again

07:04 on offense because he coached their leading receiver

07:07 to a thousand yard campaign.

07:09 So Tyquan Underwood, less experienced,

07:12 certainly in the NFL game, but fits the mold

07:14 that we've been talking about for weeks,

07:15 even with the first few hires,

07:17 that Gerard Mayo is making the staff in his own image.

07:21 It leans younger, more energy focused, driven coaches

07:25 who are also ex-players.

07:26 Alex Van Pelt, former NFL quarterback,

07:28 Underwood, Hightower, you're familiar with them.

07:31 A lot of these guys, at the very least,

07:33 were coaches in college.

07:34 Now this is all coming together.

07:35 Still need a running backs coach,

07:37 receivers coach and tight ends coach.

07:38 But if you had to bet, I will look at ex-players

07:40 who have overlapped with Van Pelt.

07:42 And then finally all of this will be sorted out.

07:45 So that's it on the coaching front.

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08:54 The front office.

08:56 I wrote today that the number one word

08:59 for their off-season plan for agency,

09:01 the draft, any trades that might come up,

09:03 the word all of that should revolve around is optionality.

09:09 Give yourself as many options as possible

09:12 as you are basically starting from scratch

09:14 with this roster talent.

09:15 Remove all restrictions to getting the players you want

09:17 via trade for agency and the draft,

09:20 and then go get them.

09:22 Obviously, this sounds like a good idea generally,

09:24 but especially when you have as little talent as you have,

09:27 and as much cap space as the Patriots have,

09:29 and draft capital.

09:30 So my point until then,

09:32 free up more cap space,

09:33 which they can get over 80 million

09:35 as soon as they restructure or release JC Jackson.

09:38 Right now there are 66 million.

09:39 Going to over 80 would put them at the top of the league

09:42 right now when they're in third,

09:43 but you can trade Mac Jones,

09:45 breathe the peace if you want more details.

09:47 The point here today is though,

09:49 that $66 million in cap space

09:52 is a good reason to believe that they will spend.

09:55 However, as you know,

09:56 we were all Charlie Brown with the football

09:59 the last two off seasons.

10:00 Oh, the Patriots got cap space,

10:01 a lot of cap room,

10:02 time to sign some veterans, plenty of needs,

10:04 and none of it really transpired

10:06 in the way that we all expected or certainly hoped.

10:09 But as I said,

10:10 that $66 million in cap space, third most in league,

10:13 is reason number two, why the Patriots will spend.

10:16 Reason number one, they have to.

10:19 It's in the CBA.

10:21 Under the current CBA,

10:23 every team must spend at least 90% of the salary cap

10:27 within three to four year periods.

10:28 And whatever that cap is,

10:31 which is projected to be 242 million this upcoming season,

10:34 you have to, at least in this year, get up to 216.

10:38 Now the NFL just closed

10:39 one of these three to four year periods.

10:41 It went 2017 to 2020, 2021 to 2023,

10:46 and now we're going to start here in 2024.

10:48 So when you think about the last three years,

10:51 the Patriots go all in

10:53 at the start of the last period in 2021.

10:55 Record setting, spending spree.

10:56 We all wrote about it.

10:57 Devon Gotchow, Matt Chudan, Nelson Aguilar,

10:59 Johnnie Smith, Hunter Henry, come on down.

11:01 All right, they spent over 100% of the cap, well over that.

11:05 So the next two years that I just talked about,

11:08 well, they got more cap space.

11:09 They didn't have to spend the cash and obviously didn't,

11:12 but still met the threshold

11:14 because in the aggregate of this three year window,

11:17 they were over 90%.

11:18 Every team has to do that.

11:19 When you look ahead for this upcoming window,

11:22 2024, 2025, and 2026,

11:26 the Patriots are scheduled to be bottom five in spending

11:29 every single year and starting this season,

11:33 they are closer to spending 50%

11:35 of that projected $242 million salary cap,

11:40 just half of that right now,

11:41 than they are closer to being 90%.

11:44 And so in order to get to 90% of this upcoming cap,

11:48 and it is in the aggregate,

11:49 but like you're already playing from behind,

11:52 again, bottom five this year, next year, and 2026,

11:55 in terms of cash spending,

11:57 which is very different from cap,

11:58 and we'll get to that in a second,

12:00 but you're playing catch up.

12:02 So they need to spend right now to get to 90%

12:04 of that $242 million,

12:06 $88 million in cold, hard cash,

12:11 just to stay on schedule for the next couple of years.

12:15 So whether you wanna chant the crafts are cheap

12:18 until you're blue in the face, that's fine.

12:20 Just know this is coming because it's in the CBA.

12:24 They have to spend the cold, hard cash.

12:27 Now, on cash versus cap,

12:29 cash spending, again,

12:30 you're talking about a cap figure, 242 million,

12:33 you need to spend at least 90% of that in cash,

12:36 which is counted as money just handed to the players

12:39 in that season.

12:40 Again, they're scheduled to spend

12:42 about 100 million less than that 242.

12:45 They need to get to 216.

12:47 If they wanna stay on schedule for this three-year window,

12:50 $88 million, and they're at about 130 right now.

12:52 Cap does not directly correlate with cash.

12:58 Any player's 2024 cap hit

13:01 consists of money scheduled to be paid to them this year,

13:04 but can include money paid in previous years

13:07 if they get a signing bonus

13:08 that was prorated over a couple of years,

13:11 which is all to say, hey,

13:12 you'll get your signing bonus when we add you,

13:15 but for our bookkeeping purposes or accounting,

13:18 we're gonna take the 10 million in signing bonus,

13:20 let's say you sign a four-year deal,

13:21 it only counts on our books, 2.5 this year, 2.5 the next year,

13:26 2.5 million in the third year, and 2.5 at the end.

13:29 So the cap is not directly correlated with the cash,

13:32 but you need to spend 90% of the cap in cash

13:36 within these three-year windows

13:37 because it's in the rule book.

13:39 So the Patriots have the cap.

13:42 They need to spend the cash.

13:43 They are going to spend a lot of money next month.

13:46 Of course, it matters who they sign,

13:48 but this should be encouraging for everyone

13:49 who watched the last two off-seasons going,

13:51 they just missed in all the big free agents,

13:53 and no surprise, eight, nine, then four and 13.

13:57 All right, onto the mailbag.

13:58 Lots of topics here today, 14 questions.

14:00 We did not get to all of them,

14:01 which is never the promise, but most of them.

14:03 And if you have more, email, tweet at me, run threads,

14:07 all that works.

14:09 However, I will start with two questions

14:11 that were buried in my spam folder.

14:13 Don't love to go into the spam folder.

14:15 Obviously, it does a good job filtering out a lot of crap,

14:18 but I do miss some reader emails.

14:19 So we're going to start with two of them.

14:21 John from a couple of weeks ago is asking, quote,

14:24 "You'll recall last year, an NFL player survey

14:26 found the Patriots team facilities lacked in several areas,

14:30 particularly the weight room and the locker room.

14:31 What, if anything, can you tell us about the team's efforts

14:35 in the last year to respond to these deficiencies?"

14:37 Well, John, a new weight room is on the way.

14:41 A new weight room that is actually on the first floor

14:44 of this new craft group building,

14:47 which is adjacent to the Patriots football operations.

14:50 If you imagine the lighthouse, right,

14:53 that end of the stadium,

14:55 if you're staring at the lighthouse

14:57 from say the parking lot, it's on the right side,

14:59 the pro shop is to the left,

15:01 it's around the corner where these large glass panels

15:04 and the first two floors, as I understand it,

15:06 are going to be football operations.

15:07 So scouting, coaches, weight room, okay.

15:12 They weren't finished with this last year,

15:14 but it was funny because when we would walk

15:17 from the media room,

15:18 which is actually very close to football operations,

15:20 last year, we would go by this new weight room.

15:23 So you could see some equipment going in there.

15:26 And we would also see guys playing cards and hanging out.

15:28 So I don't know if you'll be able to just walk

15:30 from the pro shop along the first floor

15:33 where the weight room is going to be,

15:34 or if they're going to put up something

15:36 to obstruct other people's views.

15:38 I would think they would go about doing that.

15:39 But the point is, this is going to be a brand new weight room.

15:43 The locker room, to me, I'm surprised it got

15:44 as many low marks 'cause the ones I've been in,

15:47 at least home locker rooms, is at least on par,

15:50 but they're making a well overdue effort

15:52 to upgrade the equipment, the space,

15:55 and all of the resources here,

15:56 and I think including sports science,

15:58 because the old weight room was rinky dink.

16:00 Like I'm sure there are high schools in Texas

16:03 that could have rivaled some of what the Patriots had

16:06 in that weight room.

16:07 It was old, they rightfully got slammed,

16:09 but that's going to change.

16:10 Now you know exactly where it is.

16:11 Alex V. E-mail, "Hey man."

16:13 Hey Alex.

16:14 "All this excitement around Alex Van Pelt

16:15 "feels eerily similar to last year's Bill O'Brien hire."

16:19 And we all know how that turned out.

16:20 Sure, four and 13 seasons hits the bar pretty low.

16:24 "Drafting a much needed quarterback calls for excitement,

16:26 "but given all the holes elsewhere on the field,

16:29 "how many years away are the Patriots

16:31 "from truly being back in contention?"

16:34 Okay, so first of all,

16:35 I would disagree on where you start there.

16:39 Like Bill O'Brien universally applauded,

16:42 not even because it was an A plus move,

16:45 it was just appreciably better

16:47 than what we had all thought we'd experienced

16:49 with Matt Patricia.

16:50 Obviously it didn't pan out that way.

16:51 I would think that Bill O'Brien might have some regrets

16:54 coming in, just understanding the dynamics of the staff,

16:56 the talent available, yada yada.

16:58 He's a BC, he should be happy.

17:00 Patriots are moving forward.

17:01 Alex Van Pelt, best as I can tell,

17:03 has received a lukewarm reception

17:06 because you have people on opposite ends of this spectrum.

17:10 Some people saying an A plus,

17:12 former coordinator, longtime quarterbacks coach,

17:14 ex-player, unifier in the locker room,

17:17 just coached a top 10 scoring offense

17:19 with five different quarterbacks.

17:21 What more could you want?

17:22 The other folks go,

17:24 "Well, what I want is a guy who's called plays

17:27 "more recently than 2009,

17:28 "a guy who has coached multiple top 10 scoring offenses

17:32 "since 2016, which Vid Pelt has not,

17:34 "and is not someone who the Patriots

17:36 "seem to have settled on after chasing Zach Robinson,

17:38 "Nick Cahle, and Luke Goetze,

17:40 "and then landing with Alex Van Pelt."

17:42 I, of course, as you know, landed in the middle, C plus.

17:45 I don't think you felt a lot of people who were going

17:47 C plus or below with Bill O'Brien.

17:49 It was a solid B, sometimes maybe an A.

17:51 I think all the reasons are valid.

17:53 It didn't work out.

17:54 But as far as contending, look, this is at minimum,

17:58 minimum, a two-year rebuild.

18:01 So I would say year three,

18:02 when you talk about contention,

18:03 like contending for a Super Bowl,

18:06 and we'll even just put AFC Championship, at least three.

18:10 And that's like everything goes right

18:12 the first couple of years.

18:13 You nail the quarterback,

18:14 you build the offensive lineback,

18:16 you're adding receiving talent,

18:17 dry males, growing pains are very, very quick,

18:20 and then over.

18:21 So I would say three years away from contending,

18:24 but one, one or two from kind of getting back into the mix.

18:28 All right?

18:29 Sox Nation, what's up, long time.

18:32 Quote, "How valuable is a trade back from pick 33?

18:35 Most of the focus is on the third pick,

18:37 but could a trade back from 33,

18:39 the Patriots actually pick 34,

18:41 be the most important move for the draft?"

18:43 So I love this question 'cause it spurred me,

18:47 as I said at the beginning,

18:48 you guys make me better doing more research.

18:50 I'm familiar with all the things that I'm saying,

18:53 but it's another thing to be like,

18:54 "Oh yeah, I know where I'm going."

18:55 And another to have like the step-by-step direction

18:58 of how to get there.

18:59 Here come those directions.

19:00 First, the trade back from 33 and 34,

19:04 anytime you've watched the drafts

19:05 and say split this into a three-day event,

19:08 everyone goes, "Oh, you could just hold an auction.

19:10 The team with the first pick in the second round,

19:12 you've got leftover first round players,

19:14 award it to the highest bidder.

19:16 You can get a boatload of picks."

19:18 Well, whether it was Joey Porter Jr. last year

19:19 to the Steelers or years before him,

19:22 that never really materializes in the way that his build

19:24 as part of his buildup for the drafted back on Friday,

19:27 see what trade will kind of kick off our coverage.

19:30 And so I don't think that's as likely here.

19:34 And even at 34, this is such a deep draft

19:37 for offensive tackles and receivers that in my opinion,

19:41 not knowing the offer yet,

19:42 and of course how the board is going to fall,

19:43 you're better off just making that pick.

19:45 Because as I said, year after year after year,

19:48 players with a first grade,

19:51 first round grade on your board,

19:54 no matter who you are, typically fall to that spot,

19:57 33, 34, 35th overall.

19:59 The Patriots recently, and this happened twice,

20:02 Christian Barmore in 2021 and Keon White a year ago,

20:06 who was considered for them at 17th overall

20:09 when they got Christian Gonzalez.

20:10 So I think you make the pick.

20:12 If you get a godfather offer,

20:14 obviously you can't refuse it, you take it.

20:16 But if you want to figure out what kind of trades

20:18 they might get at 34,

20:20 I would go visit Rich Hill's trade value chart,

20:22 which is a modernized, more updated

20:25 and historically informed trade chart.

20:27 And then Jimmy Johnson's

20:28 or any other ones you're going to find.

20:29 Take the value of the 34 pick,

20:31 make some sort of combination of other picks

20:34 later in the rounds owned by one team, there's your trade.

20:37 Now, you are correct in saying most of the focus

20:40 is on moving back from three.

20:42 So sticking with Rich Hill's modern trade value chart,

20:46 for example, in a regular draft,

20:48 the Patriots could trade back from say number three

20:52 to 13 where Las Vegas is,

20:54 and supposedly Antonio Pierce,

20:56 who overlapped with Jayden Daniels

20:57 when they were both at Arizona State, wants to move up.

21:01 So according to this chart,

21:02 the Patriots can move back 10 spots

21:04 and add a second round pick, a fourth round pick

21:05 and a fifth round pick and call it a day.

21:08 However, this is not a regular draft.

21:11 And not just because the Patriots are number three,

21:13 but because you have three legitimate quarterbacks

21:16 billed as top five and at worst top 10 prospects,

21:19 which means not only will you have multiple suitors

21:23 coming up for the most important position of the draft,

21:25 but you should be able to stoke that trade market

21:28 and get a bigger return.

21:30 How far do you want to look back?

21:31 Well, let's go back to last year's draft.

21:33 The Cardinals went from number three to 12.

21:37 And in the process, in an unprecedented deal with Houston,

21:40 not for quarterback, but a defensive end,

21:43 added the number 33 pick in the second round,

21:45 a first round pick in 2024 and a third round pick.

21:51 The reasoning for which, when Nick Casario got asked after

21:53 was, "I don't care about your stupid charts."

21:57 Yeah, who cares?

21:58 It's about the players, not the picks,

21:59 which everyone's going,

22:00 "Okay, well, the charts exist for a reason.

22:02 It's to balance out the decision-making

22:04 and get the value that you got."

22:05 Obviously, CJ Stroud and Willie Anderson

22:06 look like home runs, but the point is,

22:09 if the Cardinals could swing that deal

22:12 going from three to 12,

22:14 and the Raiders want to come up from 13,

22:16 and you're the Patriots, they're at three

22:18 with a quarterback, you think, or maybe know at that point

22:21 they covet, you can absolutely ask for,

22:23 "We want your second round pick, a first, a third,

22:25 and maybe a little bit more."

22:27 Because you're not just coming up for a guy

22:28 who might make a couple of Pro Bowls

22:30 and is coming out of Alabama and is going to start,

22:32 you want to help your defense.

22:33 You're coming up for a face of your franchise,

22:36 a legitimate starter from day one,

22:39 and someone who is playing the most important,

22:40 influential position in sports.

22:42 Now, it might not be the Raiders.

22:43 It could be any number of teams.

22:44 They're going to be looking for a quarterback in that range.

22:47 But my point is, only, only, only,

22:51 if the Patriots do not like the quarterback left over

22:54 at number three, likely Drake May or Jaden Daniels,

22:57 then you trade back, absolutely.

23:01 Do not make the pick at three

23:03 and take an offensive tackle or Marvin Harrison Jr.,

23:05 this is a stacked receiver and offensive tackle class.

23:08 Make that trade back or some version of it.

23:12 Add extra draft capital, build out your optionality,

23:15 get more picks, infuse more talent into the roster,

23:18 and ideally still get a quarterback

23:19 late first or early second round.

23:21 All right, Josh, speaking of quarterbacks,

23:23 more likely quarterback run for the Patriots,

23:25 Jacoby Brissett, Michael Penix, and Billy Zappi,

23:28 or Drake May, Gardner Minshew, and Billy Zappi?

23:32 Mack Jones is already traded, obviously,

23:34 in this scenario, or cut.

23:36 I will go with Jacoby Brissett, Michael Penix,

23:37 and Billy Zappi because I think as of now,

23:40 again, February 13th, more than two months from the draft,

23:44 it seems likely that Drake May

23:45 will be the second quarterback taken

23:47 with the second overall pick.

23:49 And so that immediately removes that scenario.

23:51 In addition, I'm not saying the Patriots

23:53 do or don't like Jayden Daniels, I don't know that yet,

23:56 but Michael Penix is a guy who fits the range

23:59 where you might be able to get him

24:00 if you trade back from three to the teens,

24:05 or if you make the pick and he falls

24:08 into the late first or early second,

24:10 where you're already at 34 and can just lump up,

24:13 lump up, jump up a couple of spots,

24:15 or 10 or 12, to go get him.

24:17 And in this scenario, they still land Jacoby Brissett,

24:20 who is my number one, far and away choice

24:22 for this bridge veteran quarterback,

24:24 who sorely, sorely, sorely could have been needed last year,

24:26 when Mac Jones and Billy Zappi

24:28 are sitting in the opposite sides of the room

24:29 and don't even wanna look at each other.

24:30 Okay, Corey, asking, quote,

24:33 "Do you think it was a blessing in disguise

24:35 that Alex Van Pelt is the offensive courtier

24:36 and not Nick Kealy?

24:38 Patriots are most likely taking a quarterback at three,

24:40 and I would rather have the guy

24:41 who has decades of experience working with quarterbacks

24:44 rather than the guy who's never coached one before."

24:46 So, I understand where you're coming from, Corey.

24:50 I would say this, in this scenario,

24:53 I would add the quarterbacks coaches.

24:57 We know with Van Pelt, it's T.C. McCartney.

24:59 Had Kealy been hired,

25:01 I don't know who his quarterbacks coach would have been.

25:03 Obviously, it wouldn't be Zach Robinson,

25:05 because he just went and took the OC job in Atlanta.

25:08 He's not gonna stay in the same position and go elsewhere.

25:10 But let's say, for a hypothetical example,

25:12 it was Nick Kealy and Zach Robinson

25:15 versus Alex Van Pelt and T.C. McCartney.

25:17 Then it's a conversation,

25:18 because I understand you want the guy

25:20 who's coached quarterbacks,

25:21 but if it's not gonna be the same person with that title,

25:24 well, then include them,

25:25 and then balance out when you're picking one or the other.

25:28 I will say this,

25:29 if you wanna just reduce it to Kealy versus Van Pelt,

25:33 we're not gonna know for a couple of years.

25:36 And we might never know, okay?

25:38 This is a counterfactual.

25:39 Nick Kealy is the offensive coordinator in New England.

25:41 We're never gonna know what that looks like,

25:43 at least for next year.

25:45 So I would just stay patient.

25:47 If you wanna feel that way,

25:47 I'm not gonna tell you you're wrong,

25:49 but just consider,

25:50 I would love to know who his quarterbacks coach

25:52 would have been,

25:53 because that is a big part of this equation,

25:54 that at least in the way you phrased it, has gone unsaid.

25:57 Gary, quote, "Popular opinion fit the system

26:00 "around the skillset of the young, talented quarterback.

26:03 "Alex Van Pelt has run multiple styles.

26:05 "Heck, he just worked with five quarterbacks

26:06 "this past season, from Watson to Flacco.

26:08 "Does this make you believe the offensive coordinator

26:11 "search prioritized flexibility

26:13 "versus sell me on your scheme?"

26:15 I am gonna defer to Dry Mayo here.

26:17 I think he was being honest when he said,

26:18 "I want people," meaning coaches,

26:20 "who develop players."

26:23 Obviously, there was a lot made

26:24 of the Shanahan versus McVay,

26:26 overlap when you're looking at the candidates

26:29 they interviewed or at least requested.

26:32 I don't think he prioritized someone

26:34 who had been in the same room as Kyle Shanahan

26:36 or worked a system that was off of that same tree

26:40 more than who has a good reputation,

26:42 who's developed players, who's probably been an ex-player

26:45 and has a lot of experience.

26:46 I think those boxes came before,

26:48 however they wanna organize their exes and os.

26:51 Kurt, quote, "I like Justin Fields coming out of college."

26:53 Same here.

26:54 "If he was coming out with this year's class,

26:56 "where would he be ranked among the quarterback prospects?"

26:58 Good question.

26:59 First of all, I'm on the record.

27:00 I do not want the Patriots to trade for Justin Fields.

27:04 Still having questions about his ability

27:05 as a passer in year four.

27:07 I don't think you're gonna get answered any differently

27:09 than we have the last couple of seasons.

27:11 To answer his question, Fields was number four

27:13 that season after Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson,

27:15 Trey Lance, we know Wilson and Lance busted.

27:18 Not many people were arguing the order

27:20 in which they were drafted.

27:21 Fields not only just didn't go top five or top 10,

27:24 he went 11th and then Mack Jones at 15.

27:26 This year, I think he's four again.

27:29 I think it's Caleb Williams and Drake May and arguably.

27:33 Jane Daniels, you have some questions,

27:35 but between Daniel's experience and the traits

27:39 and just the season that he had at LSU,

27:42 granted with excellent weapons,

27:43 I think he edges out Fields

27:46 'cause he's a little bit more refined as a passer.

27:48 The traits are still there as far as just the athleticism.

27:51 Fields probably has him a little bit on arm strength,

27:53 but three or four is the bottom line answer here.

27:56 Waterboys, "What's one surprising move

27:58 "you see the Patriots making this off season?"

28:00 Well, you'll be happy to know,

28:02 again, as of now, Tuesday, February 13th,

28:05 I see a trade up into the first round.

28:07 And I've been looking through the Packers draft history

28:09 and there aren't a whole lot of examples.

28:11 Pretty balanced front office when Elliott Wolfe was there.

28:14 The front office was run by Ted Thompson until he retired.

28:18 And they would do a fair amount of trading back

28:20 and trading up, but I think there's just going to be

28:22 a talent there that they can't pass up,

28:24 whether it's an offensive tackle or a receiver

28:26 or maybe a quarterback, that they jump up from 33

28:29 into the back end of the first round

28:31 or maybe surrender future picks

28:33 because this is now a front office

28:34 that has been emboldened, empowered,

28:37 and has clear identifiable needs

28:39 that they feel, "We can go do this."

28:41 And for the first time, we have the ability to go do this

28:43 'cause Bill Belichick is gone.

28:44 I think they take a big swing.

28:46 All right, a few more here.

28:47 Lawrence, "What exactly does an offensive coordinator

28:49 "do in a moderate offense?"

28:50 They have a run game coordinator,

28:51 a pass game coordinator, a quality control coach,

28:53 and the head coach calls the plays.

28:55 This is a case-by-case basis.

28:57 Many offensive coordinators call plays.

28:59 They draw up the game plan, set the vision.

29:02 Within the week, some coach quarterbacks, others don't,

29:05 but they're in charge, big picture,

29:06 of how do we want to play this game?

29:09 What players do we want to play?

29:10 They're the head coach of that side of the ball.

29:12 It's the best answer I can give you.

29:13 Aaron, "Should the Pats pursue

29:14 "any of the top receiver free agents?"

29:16 He lists Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman, Mike Evans,

29:18 Hollywood Brown, Calvin Ridley.

29:20 Unsurprisingly, I get less and less excited

29:23 about these options as we get on the list.

29:25 Tee Higgins, no-brainer.

29:27 Michael Pittman, okay.

29:30 Mike Evans, like it,

29:32 but no more than a one or two-year deal,

29:33 which isn't really aligned

29:34 with the timeline of the franchise.

29:36 Hollywood Brown, Calvin Ridley, I can take your leave.

29:39 "Are M. Heff, with a move to a West Coast offense,

29:41 "which skills and traits do you see New England

29:43 "prioritizing differently from the skill position groups?"

29:45 Well, first of all, when you look at their draft history,

29:48 Patriots are kind of all over the place

29:49 with what they prioritize.

29:51 I talked about this with Phil Perry after the 2022 draft,

29:54 being like, you went from 2021,

29:56 not necessarily traits-focused, but big school production,

30:01 Mack Jones, Remyndra Stevenson, Christian Barmore,

30:04 to breaking up with someone

30:06 and looking for their complete opposite in 2022,

30:09 Colstrains, Taekwon, Thornton,

30:11 like athletes, athletes, athletes.

30:13 And so I would just say this,

30:14 the short answer is yards after catch,

30:15 which is a staple of the Shanahan offenses in McVay.

30:19 It's not easily identifiable when it comes to the combine,

30:21 but that is something that they are gonna prioritize

30:23 within this new offense.

30:25 Another question on the receivers,

30:26 if Higgins, this is from Brian,

30:29 Mike Evans, Michael Pittman, Calvin Ridley are not available,

30:32 do you take a chance on Mike Williams

30:34 coming off of injury with the Chargers?

30:36 He throws out $10 million base salary

30:37 plus three or 4 million in incentives.

30:40 Too rich, too rich for my blood.

30:42 I think you're dealing with a team

30:44 that's gonna have to restructure his contract

30:46 or just outright release him.

30:47 I would have some interest, but that's a guy, again,

30:50 you're kind of buying on the backend of his career.

30:52 And for me, just doesn't fit.

30:54 I'm sounding like I'm being picky.

30:55 I would not be upset if they signed him,

30:57 but that kind of structure and incentives,

30:59 especially a one-year deal,

31:00 or I'm just gonna have to bring him back.

31:01 I just, none of this feels like the right fit for me.

31:05 Fernando, if Caleb and May are gone at one-two

31:07 and Daniels is still a good choice,

31:09 I heard he needs a specific style of offense

31:11 and Van Pelt couldn't make it work with Watson in Cleveland.

31:14 I don't know how much of that is an Alex Van Pelt issue

31:16 versus the Deshaun Watson problem,

31:18 given that Watson missed over a season

31:21 before getting to Cleveland.

31:22 And the only evidence you need

31:23 is that it worked for Joe Flacco.

31:26 Like, they went through the playoffs with Joe Flacco.

31:30 And I think Jane Daniels has got a little bit

31:32 more versatility than you're giving him credit for.

31:35 Bill/Andy, these guys asked about cousins

31:38 and Baker Mayfield as quarterbacks and for agency.

31:41 Look, I think both of them are long shots.

31:43 Baker Mayfield is dealing with the Bucs front office

31:46 that found a guy after the guy,

31:49 meaning Tom Brady, which is very rare.

31:51 And Baker as a guy is just like legit starter.

31:54 Like we can play with him.

31:55 They have tons of cap space.

31:56 The Vikings aren't far behind around 25, 26 million.

31:59 Cousins a little bit more complicated,

32:02 but long-term his injury might pay off for them

32:04 in a way that they don't have to pay market rate

32:06 for a quarterback coming off of such a significant injury.

32:09 Again, already in his mid thirties,

32:11 a lot of teams would sign up for Kirk Cousins,

32:13 but I bet they find a way to keep him there.

32:15 If not, Patriots want to sign Kirk Cousins, I'm in.

32:19 All right, last thing for me,

32:20 folks have been asking how Doug is doing.

32:23 Not going to betray any confidences,

32:24 but he and I are speaking more regularly now.

32:26 I've seen him a couple of times.

32:28 He's hanging in and it feels good to say that.

32:32 So thank you to everyone who has donated,

32:35 who has written to him, who has extended support.

32:37 I know I've asked a ton of them from you

32:38 on this podcast and elsewhere.

32:41 Please keep it coming.

32:42 Keep him in your thoughts.

32:44 Let him know, send him a tweet.

32:46 He's working part-time now and will come back

32:49 and help shoulder the load as I take off for Spain here.

32:53 But he would still love to hear from you.

32:55 And everything so far has been tremendous.

32:57 So thank you.

32:58 I will see you late next week.

33:00 And again, appreciate you.

33:01 150, we made it.

33:03 (upbeat music)

33:06 (upbeat music)

33:08 (upbeat music)

33:11 (upbeat music)

33:14 (upbeat music)

33:16 (laughing)

Why Patriots Will SPEND BIG in Free Agency | Pats Interference

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