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00:03 Millions and millions of prop bets, more than you could ever ask for.
00:06 Available FanDuel, DraftKings, VetMGM, Las Vegas, everywhere.
00:10 And so we thought we would take this opportunity to review some of them,
00:13 especially some of the bigger names,
00:14 to see if we have any positions going into the game this afternoon.
00:18 So let's get started and take a look, gentlemen, at Patrick Mahomes,
00:21 the starting quarterback of the Kansas City Chiefs,
00:23 who certainly has risen his game in these playoffs,
00:28 especially in the first half of some of these playoff games.
00:32 And then the Chiefs have been able to just sort of hang on with their defense.
00:34 But his passing total is 262.5.
00:39 And Davis, if this was 2022 or 21 or 20,
00:42 you would just hit the smash button on the over.
00:46 But it's not the way the Chiefs are playing right now.
00:49 The number seems fair,
00:50 probably a little bit higher than it's been actually over the course of the season.
00:55 And look, playoff Mahomes is honestly as good as regular season Mahomes.
00:59 It's just a different way that the Chiefs play.
01:02 So I don't certainly think this is a slam dunk by any means.
01:05 And my guess is, Davis, if the Chiefs win,
01:07 this is definitely not a guarantee that he goes over this.
01:11 >> That's what I think is so interesting.
01:13 In years past, you'd say him going over is a really positive indicator that they
01:17 won the game, it meant they were efficient,
01:19 it meant that they had a couple explosive plays, someone scored a 60-yard touchdown.
01:23 I think you could actually make an argument that Mahomes going over would
01:27 maybe even correlate with the Chiefs loss, or
01:29 at least a game where they were losing for a good chunk of it.
01:31 Because the best Chiefs games this season have been ones where they've been able to
01:35 run the ball really efficiently and long drives, right?
01:38 That's, I think, been the huge difference between the Chiefs this postseason versus
01:43 what they were doing in the regular season is they get the ball,
01:46 there's ten minutes left in the third quarter.
01:48 And all of a sudden you look up and they're going into the fourth quarter and
01:51 the Chiefs just had the ball for nine minutes and 30 seconds of game time and
01:55 just came away with a field goal.
01:57 And I saw someone, I wish I remembered the name,
01:59 someone on social media pointed this out.
02:01 But the biggest difference has been the drops.
02:04 There's been no drops or
02:05 ball the scaling had one that was really bad in the Dolphins game, but that's been it.
02:09 And if you don't have drops, so you just have the quarterback hitting the receiver
02:13 in the hands and they just catch it and come down with it.
02:15 That keeps the clock moving, that keeps the chains moving.
02:18 And if you're using the passing game as an extension of the running game,
02:22 which is what the Chiefs are doing, lots of screen passes to Rashi Rice,
02:26 lots of throws out of the backfield, the Pacheco and Clyde Overtolere.
02:29 Maybe McKinnon is able to play this game.
02:31 I, in my personal wagering of which I have done a lot of wagering for this game,
02:36 I've not taken a stance on this one outside of the same game parlays,
02:40 just trying to find a good correlation here or there.
02:43 I would probably lean under given how I think this game goes.
02:48 I think it is gonna be more kind of a time of possession, grind it out style game,
02:52 but I don't feel confident enough in that to make like an official selection.
02:56 >> He's only gone over this number seven times all year and
03:00 that's including the playoffs.
03:02 Sticking with the narrative of the Chiefs winning this game,
03:04 I think if they're in control of this game,
03:05 you don't have to push the football as much.
03:06 So I'm gonna go under, I think he's still probably in that 240 to 255 range.
03:11 But this is a pretty hefty number,
03:12 especially when you consider all the drops that have been present.
03:15 Now good luck, cuz Tony's not in this game.
03:17 So we can take his drops out of this equation,
03:19 not that they should be looking for him and targeting him anyway.
03:22 But still, I think when you're looking at this number,
03:24 that's a high number for what this offense has become,
03:27 which is run the football with Pacheco.
03:30 Continue to get Travis Kelsey involved, you're gonna pepper him with targets,
03:33 Rushie Rice is gonna get his targets.
03:34 But outside of the occasional big play to MVS,
03:39 that explosiveness that used to be around when the Patrick Mahomes,
03:43 Tyreek Hill combination was present is not the case anymore.
03:46 This is not that team.
03:47 It's a different team.
03:48 I think they figured out who they are and the best way to utilize their pieces.
03:51 And I think that makes them dangerous because all year was kind of learning
03:55 their new identity of what this Chiefs team is.
03:57 And it's playing defense and Mahomes making good plays when he has to, but
04:00 not the 350 yard prolific Mahomes that we're used to seeing back in the day.
04:06 And back in the day, I mean, what, like two years ago, but still, to me,
04:09 this is gonna be an under as well with Davis.
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