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00:00 U.S. aid for Ukraine is still stuck in Congress after Republicans rejected a bipartisan bill
00:05 that included $60 billion for Ukraine, as well as funding for Israel and border security.
00:12 This after former President Donald Trump urged Republicans to reject any compromise over
00:17 the U.S.-Mexico border.
00:19 Donald Trump, who is certain to win all of Nevada's 26 delegates this Thursday when voters
00:26 go to caucus since his only rival Nikki Haley has refused to be on that ballot after Republicans
00:32 changed some of the primary rules.
00:34 Now to talk more about the U.S. presidential race, I'm joined by Jordan Cash, assistant
00:40 professor of political science at Michigan State University.
00:44 Jordan, thanks for being with us.
00:46 I'm going to start first with this Nevada primary versus Nevada caucus.
00:52 Haley was on the primary ballot.
00:54 Trump was on is on the caucus ballot, but Haley lost even without Trump on the ballot.
01:00 So what does that say about her race and about her chances of really pushing it through at
01:07 least to the South Carolina primary on February 24th?
01:11 Well, it certainly doesn't say anything good about her chances and about how things are
01:16 going to proceed.
01:17 Haley was already having a tough time even before the Nevada caucuses.
01:23 She really has been just been hanging on until she gets to South Carolina.
01:27 It I think emphasizes how difficult of a road she has to try to get the nomination.
01:33 And I think, again, signals that this primary is all but over.
01:37 And we'll have to see what happens when Haley gets to South Carolina.
01:40 But based on the polling so far and the demographics of South Carolina and the states to follow,
01:45 it looks very unlikely that she'll be able to overcome her deficit at this point.
01:50 So as you were saying, basically, Trump is cruising towards the GOP nomination.
01:58 But what about his chances in the general election?
02:01 Of course, there was the New Hampshire primary where he won, but Haley did her best score,
02:07 if you will.
02:08 And it started showing possibly some of what could be called maybe weaknesses in the general
02:14 election.
02:15 What did you make of the results and of the details of the results in New Hampshire?
02:20 Yeah, I think you're right that it reveals some weaknesses.
02:23 Trump does have a problem with independence with non-Republican voters and with some Republican
02:28 voters who just may be tired of Trump at this point.
02:32 This will be his third time as the Republican nominee, assuming things proceed as they look
02:36 like they're going to.
02:38 So that's something that the Trump campaign is going to have to focus on going into November,
02:42 how to get those independents back, how to get all Republicans to coalesce behind him.
02:46 And if he can pick off some Democrats as well.
02:49 Now, that being said, there have been some recent polls showing that Trump is actually
02:53 doing fairly well, especially in swing states, swing states like where I'm at, Michigan,
02:59 Georgia, Arizona, where he's running ahead of Joe Biden by more than a few points.
03:05 So right now, he's actually looking to be in a fairly good spot.
03:09 But of course, we're still nine months away.
03:12 So a lot could change between now and then.
03:14 And a lot can change and possibly could start tomorrow because the Supreme Court will be
03:19 hearing arguments in the Colorado case.
03:23 That's to determine whether or not Colorado was allowed, was right in removing him from
03:29 the ballot.
03:30 What can come out of this decision that will take some time to come in from the Supreme
03:35 Court?
03:37 So there are a couple of things that could come out.
03:39 One possibility is, of course, the Supreme Court strikes down the Colorado court's ruling,
03:44 says that they can't ban Trump from the ballot, which would also have the effect of striking
03:49 down a decision by the main secretary of state who also removed Trump from the ballot.
03:55 So that's one possibility.
03:58 Most commentators and scholars think that's the most likely outcome is that the Supreme
04:01 Court will strike this down.
04:04 The other possibility, of course, is that they uphold the Colorado decision and uphold
04:09 the main decision and allow states to strike Trump from the ballot based on the 14th Amendment
04:14 to the Constitution.
04:17 If that would happen, then it's kind of all bets are off.
04:20 Some states have already said that Trump can be on the ballot.
04:22 They've refused to follow Colorado in making this move.
04:26 But it's hard to say if the Supreme Court would uphold the Colorado decision, if more
04:30 states would follow their lead.
04:32 And it would make the general election very messy and possibly require the Republican
04:37 Party to reconsider how they're going to do this, because obviously your best chance to
04:42 win is if your nominee is on the ballot in all 50 states.
04:45 And to have your nominee not on the ballot just poses some real questions.
04:50 It also, I think, creates some possible tensions among voters.
04:54 If you have a large segment of voters who would support Trump, who now just can't because
05:00 he's not on the ballot, that raises some pretty hairy questions that I'm not sure the Supreme
05:05 Court really wants to get into.
05:07 Jordan Cash, thank you so much for your analysis.