- 2 years ago
- #China's consumer prices deflate at fastest rate since September 2009
- #India's life insurers saw revenue rise in January, compared to the previous year
All this and more with Alex Mathew on 'All You Need To Know'. #NDTVProfitLive
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- #India's life insurers saw revenue rise in January, compared to the previous year
All this and more with Alex Mathew on 'All You Need To Know'. #NDTVProfitLive
______________________________________________________
For more videos subscribe to our channel: https://www.youtube.com/@NDTVProfitIndia
Visit NDTV Profit for more news: https://www.ndtvprofit.com/
Don't enter the stock market unaware. Read all Research Reports here: https://www.ndtvprofit.com/research-reports
Follow NDTV Profit here
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TVTranscript
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02:39 The big event to watch today, of course, is the outcome of the Monetary Policy Committee's
02:44 decision on interest rates. We're widely expected to see a status quo there.
02:49 But before we get you more details on that, let's take you through the top cues from overseas.
02:55 Equity markets have gained in the U.S. once again, with the Dow gaining about 150 points and the S&P 500 and NASDAQ
03:02 gaining about 0.8 percent and about 1 percent or thereabouts, respectively. The S&P 500, of course, ending at yet another record high
03:11 and just five points shy away from that psychologically important mark of 5,000.
03:18 The Minneapolis Fed President, Neel Kashkari, joined a list of Fed officials in pushing back on rate cut expectations.
03:26 He said that he'd like to see inflation data for another few months before deciding on a rate reduction.
03:33 He added that two or three cuts may be appropriate this year. And Asian markets have started mostly in the green this morning.
03:40 We've just had key data from China. Consumer prices have continued to see deflation in January now for a fourth month in a row.
03:50 Let's turn to the Indian equity markets then. And Agam is joining in to tell you about the latest cues from the F&O space.
03:57 Agam, we've been talking about consolidation for quite a bit. And in fact, if anything, towards the end of the session,
04:04 you saw quite a few PSU stocks in action. But what are the cues heading into expiry?
04:09 Right. It's expiry and it's also the monetary policy day, Alex. So again, things could be a little bit more volatile.
04:17 Well, we continue to see the Nifty try and move above the mark of 22,000. It's the day when we see the Nifty sustain above that.
04:26 It's when we perhaps can expect a little bit more strength returning to markets. But until then, we are expecting some amount of sideways movements.
04:34 Even in terms of the тАУ we haven't seen a lot of change as far as your index futures go either. And the Nifty Bank futures, let's bring that out as well.
04:42 That's where we are seeing about 6% added in open interest. But as you can see, we have seen some longs building in there.
04:51 Moving on to the options market, we are looking at a little bit more puts activity around 22,000.
04:58 And it's actually not very evident as to what kind of direction the markets want to take, at least based on yesterday's activity.
05:06 Still, in terms of a range we can expect the Nifty to move within, it's about a 700 point range, 600 point range.
05:14 And I know it's a very wide one. But we are keeping an eye on 21,700 on the lower end.
05:20 I know that 21,900 put has the one with the maximum open interest. But we are still going to give that much of a levy as far as markets are concerned.
05:29 And of course, on the higher end, continuing to keep an eye on 22,300, that's where you have max OI in terms of calls.
05:36 Moving on, let's talk about stocks. And we did see longs in Delta Corp, Balram Purchini and Trent.
05:42 Trent saw a staggering 19% up move yesterday. So, keep an eye on that one.
05:48 And of course, in terms of stocks, which saw unwinding yesterday, we saw short covering in Chamal Fertilizers, HGFC Lite, Pidlite and Dr. Reddy's.
05:56 Alex, I reckon banks will be in focus today because depending on what the monetary policy gives us and tells us about liquidity conditions, we could in fact see some amount of activity there.
06:06 Thanks so much, Agam, for bringing us the details. In fact, let's focus in on what the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee has in store for us today.
06:15 Of course, we are widely expected to see a status quo on interest rates.
06:20 But what's the context? Pallavi Nahata brings you more in this report.
06:26 India's Monetary Policy Committee is set to announce its decision soon.
06:31 Now, we already know that it's likely to be a status quo, both on the key lending rate as well as on the stance.
06:37 In fact, all 42 economists polled by Bloomberg expect the MPC to hold the repo rate steady at 6.5%.
06:46 But that's not to say that it's going to be a dull or a boring MPC.
06:50 We'll watch out for whether the governor's commentary will be less hawkish.
06:54 We're also closely going to be tracking what the central bank will say on key macro variables, the economy, inflation and of course, on liquidity.
07:04 Now, liquidity conditions have been in focus because liquidity has been persistently tight since the last policy.
07:11 So it is likely that the central bank will continue active presence in liquidity management,
07:17 addressing it through measures like the variable rate reverse repo auctions.
07:22 Now, inflation, of course, remains above the central bank's 4% target.
07:27 In December, inflation came in at 5.69%, a four month high.
07:33 That was because of elevated food inflation, while core inflation that excludes food and fuel continued to provide comfort.
07:42 Going forward, the RBI does expect inflation to continue on a downward trajectory and come in closer to the target of 4%.
07:51 But that's going to happen only by Q2 FY25.
07:55 On the economy front, ever since the last policy, the National Statistics Office has published the first advance estimates earlier in January.
08:05 Now, while these figures published are to help set the stage for the budget preparation, they did present a positive surprise.
08:13 Domestic growth does look steady, though the momentum in some high frequency indicators has been a tad more mixed recently.
08:22 Alright, so that's the context. Now, if you want to hear about what the RBI governor has to say, it's not very often that you get a chance mid-policy.
08:33 Remember, this is a policy that is bi-monthly. So, you don't generally get to hear from the RBI governor.
08:40 In fact, my colleague Vishnu Som had the opportunity in Davos to speak to him and find out whether or not he thinks that India is on track or the RBI is on track on its inflation target.
08:51 Listen in.
08:53 You see, immediately after the Ukraine war, our headline inflation had touched 7.8%.
08:59 Now, thereafter, because of the monetary policy actions which we have taken, which was also supplemented by, aided by the supply side measures taken by the government,
09:10 inflation has been steadily coming down and we are on our way to achieve reach 4% target.
09:17 But next year's average is expected to be 4.5%. The positive aspect of it is that our inflation is now well within the target band of inflation, but we are not satisfied with that.
09:30 We would like our inflation to reach 4% and remain around 4%. Just let me complete that bit.
09:37 So, therefore, that is our endeavor and the core inflation, there also the core inflation has now come below, you know, marginally below the 4% headline target.
09:48 So, we expect next year's average inflation to be 4.5, inflation to steadily moderate towards 4%.
09:56 Alright, let's turn attention to the insurance space and both life insurers as well as non-life insurers had their data for the month of January be sent out by the respective bodies that represent those industries.
10:14 We have got Monal to tell you more about what came through. Monal, morning, what can you tell us?
10:19 Morning, Alex. Yes, life insurance industry definitely had a strong show. Revenue rose 27% in the month of January year on year to around 33,000 crore worth of premium.
10:32 SBI life has been leading with its new business up 103% and the retail AP at around 17%. LIC also reported a jump in its premiums of 24% and its retail AP was a little slow at 7%.
10:51 Overall, it did lose market share of 6% if we were to compare with the last year. HDFC life saw a slightly muted performance up only 2% in terms of revenue and ICICI Pro at 9%.
11:06 However, ICICI Pro registered a very strong show on the retail AP front which was up 22%. So that's on the life insurance side. If you were to look at the non-life, the revenues were up 7% at around 27,000 odd crores.
11:23 This is actually the second highest ever reported revenue after September. So, all in all a pretty good show. Private health insurers have been leading above general insurance. ICICI Lombard registered a strong show at 15% growth in its premiums.
11:42 Alright, and Monal it's also been a strong month for the pharmaceutical companies, the month of January. Of course, there is the low base to also take into account.
11:53 Absolutely, the India Pharma data also came out and there's a growth of 9.5%. But there's this one problem with the pharma industry, it's been battling with volume growth.
12:05 So, it's been months of negative volume and now we are at a nil growth, you know, muted absolutely. However, new product and prices have registered a strong growth.
12:17 The top three performing therapies for the month have been cardiac, anti-infectors and neuro which have registered a double digit growth.
12:26 Among the listed performers, if we were to look at, we have Glenmark Pharma which has registered the maximum growth followed by FDC and Sun Pharma in the range of 15 to 20%.
12:38 However, the three underperformers for the month have been Pfizer which has registered a negative growth. GSK and Dr. Reddy's has come in at around 6%.
12:48 Thanks so much, Monal for breaking that down for us. We have to step into a very quick break. We've got stock specific action on the other side. So, do stay tuned.
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15:54 Welcome back. You're watching All You Need to Know. Now, we told you about the pharmaceutical space and the latest update for the month of January.
15:59 But we have a number of pharma companies that are in focus on account of earnings as well. And Lupin was the latest to post its results for the third quarter.
16:09 Its net profit, in fact, tripled in the quarter gone by, beating all estimates. Monal is back to tell you more about how that came to pass.
16:17 Monal, what can you tell us?
16:18 Yes, a wonderful show on the numbers by Lupin. Profits have tripled.
16:25 Its margins came in really strong at 19.97 percent. And mind you, the management had guided for an 18 percent run this year.
16:32 So a great show this quarter. Revenues have been up. And the management, Nilesh Gupta in the exchange filing did say that this has been their highest ever quarterly sales numbers.
16:44 So a great show there again. Profits do have some bit of deferred tax.
16:50 So if you were to even exclude the 41 crore, we're still way, way above what the street was looking at.
16:56 So should expect some positive reaction on the stock. Apart from that, India revenues are up 13 percent.
17:03 U.S. has been a strong show at 24 percent and both India and U.S. make up for 20, for around 70 percent of the total revenue.
17:11 So great numbers. ROW sales rose 71 percent, which is phenomenal. All in all, quite a show.
17:18 We're going to have a chat with the management today, later in the day. So we'll bring you more updates then.
17:24 So much, Monal, for getting us those details. And of course, we'll all watch out for that management interview.
17:30 Let's talk about a few more stocks to watch in trade today. And Varsha is joining in with some of those details. Varsha, morning, what are you picking up?
17:37 Good morning, Alex. So I'll start with Ashoka Bilkon, wherein it received LOA of rupees 520 crore from National Highway Authority of India.
17:45 Now, this is a project for six laning of Hyderabad to Bihar-Jharkhand.
17:50 Then we have Pyramil Pharma, where U.S. FDA had conducted a pre-approval inspection of company's U.S. based facility.
17:56 Now, inspection was conducted between 29th Jan to Feb 6th, and they found three observations.
18:02 But these observations are not related to data integrity.
18:06 Then we have Wellspun Enterprise, where it emerged as lowest bidder for development of 2000 million liter per day water treatment plant from BMC.
18:14 Now, total contract value is almost 4000 crores and project is to be constructed within 48 months.
18:21 Then we have Mangalore Chemicals and Fertilizers, where it announces merger with Paradiv Phosphates.
18:27 Now, merged entity to become one of the largest integrated private sector fertilizer companies.
18:33 Now, total manufacturing capacity of merge entity will be 3.6 million metric tons per annum.
18:41 Now, if you see the swap ratio, shareholders of MCFL will get 187 equity shares of Paradiv Phosphates for every 100 equity shares of Mangalore Chemicals.
18:51 Now, if you see the geographical diversification, MCFL is present in south while Paradiv Phosphates is present in north, central and eastern parts.
18:59 And lastly, the arbitrage opportunity. So, based on swap ratio, Mangalore Chemicals to get almost 18% in value terms when share will convert to Paradiv Phosphates.
19:08 So, there is a significant chance of big action in those stocks, particularly the last pair.
19:15 Thanks so much Varsha for breaking that down for us.
19:17 On the earnings front, we have also got Cummins India, Ashoka, Buildcon and others in focus.
19:23 And the companies reported of course their third quarter numbers yesterday.
19:26 Anushi is joining in to tell you some of those details. Anushi, what can you tell us? Morning.
19:30 Morning Alex. So, starting off with Cummins, strong set of performance over year with revenue seeing a 16% uptake
19:36 supported by the domestic sales. However, the export sales remain under pressure with seeing about a 40% decline in sales over year.
19:43 EBITDA and margins also see a meaningful expansion.
19:47 The board has also approved an interim dividend of Rs. 18 per share.
19:51 Coming to Ashoka, Buildcon, so a mixed set of results over year,
19:55 while the revenue and the EBITDA have inched up to 35% and 29% growth respectively.
20:00 The margins have come down to 22% compared to 25% due to a higher jump in the raw material cost.
20:07 Net profit also was impacted by higher deferral charge over this.
20:11 So that is on the watch out. Next on the list is EPR Limited, wherein the revenue has seen about a 3% growth.
20:17 But mind you that this is on the back of further income increase. EBITDA and margins are up.
20:23 Lastly, the main focus should be on the Gujarat, Narmada Valley fertilizers,
20:27 wherein a dismal set of numbers due to the realizations going down.
20:31 Subsidies were comparatively down than the H1 performance,
20:35 which has impacted the margins as well to about 4% compared to 16% of last year.
20:41 Again, the management states that higher base was also a factor that has resulted in these set of numbers.
20:48 So these are the stocks to focus on.
20:50 Absolutely. I mean, higher base explains some of that,
20:53 but the significant decline in the margins is something also to focus on.
20:57 Thanks so much, Anushi, for breaking those down for us.
20:59 We've got more earnings to track and Harsh is joining in with companies like Power Grid Corporation of India
21:04 as well as Tata Consumer and Apollo Tyres. Harsh, morning, what can you tell us?
21:09 Well, yes. Good morning, Alex. Big companies delivering a strong set overall.
21:14 Let me first start off with Power Grid.
21:16 You saw a bit of a beat when it comes to where the revenue stood at.
21:20 It was two and a half percent higher, but nonetheless, that was a beat.
21:23 Ibita though, continues to consolidate.
21:25 Margins continue to get better as efficiencies start to pick up in this business.
21:29 3.2% higher on that front. There you go.
21:32 Your margin number is 57 basis points higher and your profit has come in almost 10% higher than what most analysts were expecting.
21:40 And that profit number of 4028 crore is a very solid number there.
21:45 So that's on Power Grid. I'm going to quickly move it on to Tata Consumer again.
21:49 Overall, when you're looking at revenue, it was up largely in line with expectations around 10% higher.
21:55 Your margins also slightly above, but in line.
21:58 Your profit was hit by a one off item of around three hundred of around 90 odd crore.
22:04 The one off item was largely with regard to the merger that there are the takeover that they're doing of Chings.
22:10 And that if I exclude that one, the profit also was marginally higher than estimates.
22:16 So keep an eye out on Tata Consumer. That's a stock to look out for.
22:19 Last off, Apollo Tires. It's been a tough environment for tires over the last year or so.
22:25 You're seeing revenue, which is up around three odd percent.
22:28 But look at that Ibita number. It's gone up by 33%.
22:31 Margins have gotten much, much better for Apollo Tires.
22:35 There you go. 400 basis points better and profit after tax, therefore, has shot up by around 78%.
22:40 It's a strong set, especially on the European business side of things.
22:43 Alex, keep your eye out on Apollo as well on the back.
22:46 Absolutely. Thanks so much, Harsh, for breaking that down for us.
22:49 Let's talk about Apollo Hospitals from the Nifty 50 pack.
22:53 It's going to be reporting its numbers today and Varsha is joining in to give you some perspective on what to expect from the third quarter performance.
23:00 Varsha, what can you tell us with regard to Apollo Hospitals?
23:03 So, right, Alex, so numbers will be out today.
23:06 So if you see revenues expected to rise 12% while Ibita is expected to rise 27%.
23:11 Margins would expand 12.8% versus 11% last year and net profit is expected to rise 57%.
23:19 Now, if you see December quarter is seasonally weak for hospital and diagnostic now owing to the festival season and lower infection rates.
23:27 Also, the softness this around this time will be elevated due to disruptions from cyclone in Tamil Nadu.
23:33 And because of this cyclone quarter on quarter weakness in occupancy is expected.
23:38 And this lower occupancy would actually impact ARPOV and margin sequentially.
23:43 Now, if you see the 24/7 divisions, revenue should ramp up sequentially and guidance on its profitability is key monitorable to watch out.
23:52 So these are the numbers that one can expect from Apollo.
23:55 Absolutely. Thanks so much, Varsha, for telling us about that.
23:58 And that brings us to the end of this particular edition of All You Need to Know.
24:01 But there's lots more to talk about and not least of which is going to be the monetary policy committee's rate decision.
24:07 You'll find all of that on India market open. That's coming up in just a few minutes to stay tuned.
24:13 This is NDTV profit.
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