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00:00 (upbeat music)
00:03 - As I'm looking into this,
00:04 what am I finding from a matchup perspective?
00:07 Well, this is like a pro Kansas City angle
00:09 that they've been running a little bit more outside
00:11 and they're better at doing it
00:13 and San Francisco's worse at defending it.
00:15 Whereas like when I'm looking at Christian McCaffrey,
00:17 I'm seeing, hey, they're great, they're awesome
00:19 running the football, there's no doubt.
00:20 But like, there are some things about this Chiefs defense,
00:22 even though they're bad,
00:23 that I think they could have some matchup successes.
00:26 So I feel less strong about McCaffrey,
00:28 I feel more strong about Pacheco,
00:30 which is why I'm leaning a little bit more into thinking,
00:33 hey, what if there's this alternate reality
00:35 where the Kansas City Chiefs are a little bit better
00:37 in some of these areas?
00:38 So I think that they're gonna be able
00:41 to have some success on the ground.
00:42 Now, one thing that the Niners defense is unfortunate
00:47 that has occurred is they lost Hufanga in week 10,
00:50 a great safety for them.
00:53 And he, I mean, the run defense dropped off tremendously.
00:57 Their run defense with him there,
00:59 the first nine weeks, number nine in EPA,
01:02 they dropped to number 26 since that point
01:05 in run defense without him.
01:06 They were number eight in success rate with him.
01:09 And since he got hurt, they're number 30 in success rate.
01:12 So a lot of their defense, you look at the full season,
01:15 you're not getting the true picture of this team.
01:17 And that also is a factor in the passing game as well.
01:20 Their pass defense has dropped off tremendously
01:23 without him there.
01:24 And that's an element that I think naturally
01:26 Patrick Mahomes is gonna have some success with.
01:28 (upbeat music)
01:30 [MUSIC]