Govt To Focus On Infra This Budget For Driving Growth | GoodReturns - video Dailymotion

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The interim Budget will be presented on February 1, 2024 by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman ahead of Lok Sabha Election 2024. The full budget will be announced by the winning party of the election later in the first half of current year. LKP Securities in an exclusive interview with GoodReturns.In said, the government might continue with nation-building programs with focus on infrastructure. With strengthening of infra, other sectors like power, energy, AI, modernisation of railways will also benefit.     #budget2024 #interimbudget #indianeconomy #incometax #taxbudget #nirmalasitharaman #lokdabhaelection #budgetexpectatations #bankingsector #budgetforwomen #budgetforfarmers #budgetforagriculture #railwaybudget #budgetsharemarket #realestatebudget #housingbudget #housingschemes                  ~HT.99~PR.147~ED.100~

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00:00 Hello and welcome to GoodReturns. This is Shruti Sarkar and we are privileged to welcome

00:05 Rupak Dey from LKP Securities. Hello Rupak, thank you for joining us today.

00:10 Hi Shruti, thank you for having me here.

00:14 Tomorrow is a big day for us. It's an interim budget and there are a lot of talks about

00:21 what is expected, some things that are not expected because our Finance Minister, Nirmala

00:27 Sitaraman has said that there will not be any spectacular announcements tomorrow. In

00:33 your view, what do you expect out of this interim budget?

00:40 So I think the government might continue with the nation building program like to build

00:48 a nation we need to focus on the infra. So my expectation is that government will focus

00:53 on infra. So infra is a bigger part and if we subdivide the infra, we get some sector

01:02 like the power sector, like the energy, AI, modernization of railways. So the first expectation

01:11 is focusing on the infra. Then I think that the government will focus on travel and tourism

01:19 this time in the budget. Then if there is a possibility that there might be some pleasant

01:27 surprise on tax front for the middle class. So my expectations are very simple. Focus

01:34 on the infra, then focus on travel and tourism and it might be some pleasant surprise for

01:40 the middle class on tax front.

01:44 So let's now change our focus from budget to the stock market. Indian stock market has

01:50 been touching, reaching record highs in the past few weeks and probably doing better than

01:57 a lot of other global stock markets. What is your overall outlook, especially this is

02:02 an election year, we will have a full budget post-election. What do you think the stock

02:07 market, what is the reaction we can expect from the stock market this year post-election?

02:14 So this year I think, in the last year Nifty gave a return of 20%. So whenever Nifty gives

02:21 a return of more than 15-16% in a year, the subsequent year Nifty remains more or less

02:30 in the subdued manner. Like Nifty does not give much return or does not fall much. So

02:37 this year we think that Nifty might consolidate within a range. Like we're not expecting Nifty

02:43 giving breakout on the higher end in a big way. So we expect Nifty to remain within a

02:49 band of 3-5% in 2024. However, if we consider the long-term trajectory, we think that 2024

02:58 is going to provide a lot of opportunity to add in the stocks, like on dips one might

03:04 have interest to add stocks for next 4-5 years. Right. So if you look at global stock market

03:13 indices like S&P, Dow Jones or FTSE or Nikkei, all of them have some kind of correction,

03:21 had faced some kind of correction in the past two years, especially during and after Corona.

03:26 Do you expect any kind of correction in the Indian stock market anytime soon?

03:33 So correction is possible, definitely possible. We might have some risk, like we might have

03:42 geopolitical risk, we might have a hold-bound result, we might have other risk like Corona.

03:50 So I'm not saying it is obvious, but we might have risk. So in that case, we might witness

03:57 some correction, but those corrections are going to bought into. So one should use those

04:03 corrections to buy shares, not to show up the penny.

04:09 Sure, sure. And so if we consider the factors, what are the major factors that will drive

04:17 Indian stocks this year?

04:21 So this year, as I said, I'm not expecting great move in the Indian stock market, either

04:28 on upside or on the downside. However, for the upside, I think the domestic demand and

04:39 the falling US interest rate are going to provide a tailwind to the Indian stocks, because

04:46 as soon as US start cutting its rate of interest, the FAA inflow will increase. Because when

04:57 FAA sees that there is a reducing difference between the Indian interest rate and the US

05:06 interest rate, they will push money in the Indian stock market. That will push the stocks

05:13 higher.

05:14 Right, right. Sure. So let's move on to central bankers. And let's talk a little bit about

05:24 inflation and rising interest rates, as you spoke earlier about the Fed, the ECB and the

05:31 BOE who have raised interest rates to tame inflation. Inflation is still not where it's

05:36 supposed to be in other countries. However, India probably is in a sweeter spot. How do

05:43 you see this playing out? Because we have the RBI meet early next month. And right now,

05:51 the repo rate is at 6.5%. When do you expect the RBI to start cutting rates and change

05:57 its stance?

06:00 So I think that on a global front, the Fed might start reducing the rate after March.

06:07 They have not confirmed anything, but they haven't promised anything. But they say that

06:13 they will go with the data. When the data is there, they will start cutting the rates.

06:18 So RBI, there might be some problem to reduce the rate because we have seen the deposits

06:26 are not growing as much as the loans are growing. So to attract deposit, RBI banks may not reduce

06:35 rates significantly. So we think that there might be some rate cuts. However, those rate

06:41 cuts will be a bit at a slower pace.

06:46 Sure. And IMF has actually raised revised India's GDP growth rate to 6.5% yesterday.

06:55 We are obviously expecting moderate growth this year. What is your thought on that? Our

07:02 Prime Minister Narendra Modi has said that India will soon become the third largest economy

07:07 in the world. What are your views on this?

07:11 So there is a great probability that India will become third largest economy in the world.

07:17 And there is a huge possibility that India will touch 5 trillion economy very soon. And

07:25 the IMF has increased their GDP projection for India for the next two years to 6.5%.

07:32 Even the finance ministry has projected India's real GDP growth at 7%. So we think that given

07:41 India's fundamental, I think that there is a possibility that India will reach its target

07:49 by 2025 or so.

07:52 We also have certain sectors that we want to probably focus on. One would be clean energy,

08:01 green energy. India is the president of G20. So what are your views on probably climate

08:10 change? India's target is to achieve net zero by 2070. Do you have any thoughts on this

08:16 that if we can achieve it probably before that, what are the measures probably the companies

08:21 should take to achieve net zero?

08:25 So I think that India will definitely work towards to reach that target by the time and

08:34 the special focus will be given time to time. Starting from this budget, I think the focus

08:40 will be given on clean energy also. And the corporates and the government are going to

08:47 focus on achieving this target within the time.

08:52 Right. Sure. One last question, Rupak. If you had to give some investment advice to

09:00 probably new investors, what would that be?

09:05 So for new investor, I think the focus would be given on the basis of a current theme.

09:11 Like the government is focusing on the empowering India, the empowering Indian manufacturing

09:18 sector and some sector which are going to be going to remain in focus in the next five

09:25 years. They might be the power sector. They might invest in energy sector stocks. They

09:35 might want to invest in AI stocks. And modernization of railways will provide the investment opportunity

09:43 in the space also. So I'm not recommending any stocks over here. However, I may refer

09:50 some stocks like PFC, REC kind of stocks are going to return good returns over the next

09:59 four to five years.

10:01 Thank you, Rupak. Those were some very thoughtful views. Thank you for joining us today. That

10:07 was Rupak De from LKP Securities, Zoroastrianism. Thank you.

Govt To Focus On Infra This Budget For Driving Growth | GoodReturns

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