ماذا يترقب المستثمرون من اقتصاد الصين في 2024؟
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00:00 Investors have many questions about the Chinese economy and how the investment will look in 2024.
00:08 Many challenges and crises have been imposed on the Chinese economy,
00:12 and we have seen them mainly in the real estate sector.
00:15 These doubts remained in the year 2024.
00:18 Here is what the investors look forward to in 2024.
00:23 First, will there be a boost?
00:26 We have seen a lot of hope between investors in 2023
00:32 because of the COVID-19 policies that were implemented in November 2022.
00:41 Investors expected to see a recovery in the economy in 2023,
00:47 but this did not happen.
00:49 We have seen a quick recovery in China's growth market in 2023.
00:54 This is not a slow growth due to the real estate crisis and the re-issuing of exports in 2023.
01:01 We have seen a crisis in real estate in general in the Chinese economy.
01:05 There was a crisis in sales in general,
01:08 and the renewal of debts affected companies,
01:11 mainly Evergrande.
01:14 However, we have seen that the IMF estimates the economy to grow by 5% in 2023.
01:24 What about the 2024 estimates?
01:27 The Chinese People's Bank estimates that the economy will decrease interest rates
01:32 and local growth by 4.6%.
01:36 What about the real estate sector, which we have seen a crisis in 2023?
01:42 The real estate sector represents 25% of the country's economy.
01:46 We are talking about a quarter of China's economy is based on the real estate sector.
01:51 We have seen sales of commercial housing decrease by 5% in 2023,
01:57 but it was slower than in 2022,
02:00 when sales decreased by 26.7%.
02:05 As for this year's forecasts,
02:07 the IMF issued a 2024 forecast that is in line with the Chinese forecast.
02:14 What does the investor expect?
02:17 What should the investor focus on in 2024?
02:21 For me, the investors should focus on strengthening local technology and the Chinese sector.
02:27 They should focus on other sectors,
02:31 not only on the real estate sector, which represents a quarter of China's economy.
02:35 Speaking of the real estate sector,
02:38 we have seen that companies with an income of 20 million yuan
02:42 have achieved a 6.6% success rate.
02:46 We are talking about a 6.6% increase in the value of the real estate sector.
02:53 In general, the real estate sector will continue to grow,
03:01 and the prices will decrease,
03:05 and other sectors such as the manufacturing sector will be able to rely on investors in China,
03:12 which is the second largest economy in the world.