00:00 Despite the fierce attempts to calm the situation in the Middle East between the war of Gaza,
00:07 tensions in Lebanon, as well as demonstrations in Libya and other fears that may extend to
00:14 the region of conflict in the Red Sea, from Yemen to Iran, are all attempts.
00:21 But these tensions remain the main factor in controlling oil prices and pushing them
00:28 to the highest in the first weeks of 2024.
00:33 We have seen gains in the level of oil prices during the first week of 2024.
00:39 Brent and light crude oil recorded the second best performance in 2024,
00:46 the second best performance since October last year.
00:49 The gains in the market performance and crude prices were strong in the first week,
00:58 despite the fact that many of the assumptions, according to analysts,
01:03 were based on the prices during the last period or the last week.
01:08 But this did not happen.
01:10 The main player was the tensions in the Middle East in this conflict and in the price rise again.
01:18 Let's look at the main factors that affect oil prices during this period.
01:25 First, tensions in the Middle East, and these tensions are intense.
01:31 Whether it was the beginning of the war in Gaza, then the Houthi attack on commercial ships
01:39 and the movement was interrupted in the Red Sea, and then the Suez Canal,
01:44 the Mersec, the Hapag-Louis, and other ships and international companies
01:49 that prevented their ships from passing through the Red Sea and changed course.
01:53 It was an important work.
01:55 Also, the production of the cannabis field in Libya stopped.
01:58 This field produces about 300,000 barrels a day as a result of protests in this field from protesters.
02:06 Therefore, production stopped, calling for the power of Cairo between the two sides.
02:10 Also, the fear of the expansion of the conflict circle to reach Iran.
02:14 Iran witnessed two explosions during the past week, killing more than 100 people.
02:21 This indicates that the expansion of the conflict circle to Iran
02:25 threatens the passage of Madiq Hormuz, one of the major players in oil passage,
02:33 specifically through this Madiq, and Iran controls it.
02:37 American oil reserves were also an important factor during the past week.
02:42 We witnessed a decrease in American oil reserves by more than 5 million barrels.
02:49 But the highlight is that there is an increase in gasoline reserves.
02:53 Here, this is the difference between the decrease in reserves, which analysts returned to,
03:00 and the idea that the disruption in production, not production, but disruption in oil passage
03:09 leads to a decline in reserves.
03:11 But the demand for gasoline, on the other hand, seems to be less in the current period.
03:18 This increase in gasoline reserves was the highest weekly increase in 30 years.
03:25 Also, the economic data was an important factor, or was supposed to be an important factor,
03:31 in controlling oil prices and preventing them from rising.
03:35 Because the US employment report, when it came with data on more than expected jobs,
03:40 was supposed to indicate a continuation of high interest rates.
03:45 Therefore, high interest rates affect oil prices negatively to the dollar.
03:50 The rise in the euro area also indicates that the European Central Bank may maintain high interest rates.
03:57 And the more it has to do with interest, the more it affects the dollar negatively.
04:04 But there are attempts on the political side to calm the conflict in the Middle East.
04:10 A visit is the fourth of its kind in the region since the beginning of the war in Gaza,
04:15 on October 7, to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken,
04:20 who began his visit to the Middle East.
04:22 He visited Turkey, Greece, and has decided to visit Arab countries, including Jordan.
04:28 Blinken said that if the Ramiya efforts fail to balance this crisis,
04:33 the result will be an endless circle of violence,
04:37 and a life without security and a conflict for the people in the region.
04:42 This is what Antony Blinken said.
04:44 Therefore, the prices of metals will remain subject to geopolitical tensions.
04:51 And in the face of geopolitical tensions, Goldman Sachs said that if these tensions continue,
04:56 and the circle of conflict extends to Iran,
04:58 prices will rise by about 20% if the Hermes contract is closed for a month.
05:04 This is according to Goldman Sachs.
05:06 Goldman Sachs himself, who has lowered his previous expectations of metals prices
05:10 to between $70 and $90 by 2024.
05:15 World banks themselves have different expectations,
05:18 among them are those optimistic about prices of oil reaching $90,
05:21 such as Bank of America, and Citigroup, which is the other one,
05:26 which says that prices will reach $75 per barrel,
05:31 and also JP Morgan, $83, and Morgan Stanley,
05:34 are expectations at this time in the Middle East.
05:39 But all this is also in line with the continuation of the OPEC+ reductions
05:44 to produce in an attempt to adjust prices and to determine the price ceiling
05:49 for the market to a lower limit.
05:53 Therefore, oil prices will remain subject to geopolitical tensions in the region.
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