فوضى البحر الأحمر تهدد 10% من الاقتصاد العالمي والمصدرون يستكشفون خيارات بديلة للشحن ودبي من ضمنها
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00:00 The global economy is in danger, not because of the rising oil prices, nor because of the
00:07 long-term rise in the interest rates of central banks.
00:11 Today, there is another file, which is a file that may be of the same importance.
00:17 The red sea chaos, which is essential for the global supply chains, not only for the
00:24 oil and gas sectors, but for various types of products, whether consumer or even food.
00:31 And global shipping companies are trying to find alternatives and new ways, whether
00:37 land or sea or even air, but the cost will not be the same.
00:42 Today, we are talking about 35,000 ships that pass through the Red Sea annually to transport
00:50 various types of goods. These numbers are 10% of the total local product.
00:56 Because of the repeated shipping attacks on ships that pass through the Red Sea and
01:02 carry various types of products, today, global shipping companies are suffering.
01:07 Four of the five largest shipping companies worldwide said that they temporarily stopped
01:14 shipping their ships that carry goods across the Red Sea.
01:20 This has caused, basically, a threefold increase in shipping costs, if we compare the costs
01:27 in December with the costs at the beginning of November.
01:31 These companies are warning their customers today that these disruptions may last for a
01:38 period of more than 90 days, and that is to give them a kind of warning that they have
01:44 to be prepared.
01:46 Of course, we are talking today about the oil and gas sector, which is the main
01:51 source of global energy resources.
01:55 4.1 billion cubic feet of natural gas pass through it daily and 8.8 million barrels of
02:02 oil daily.
02:03 Today, the oil markets do not need this file at this time, and the reason is that we
02:10 are basically talking about having a kind of shortage in the market due to the reduction
02:17 that is happening by OPEC Plus to a large extent.
02:21 Therefore, adding this file may increase fluctuations.
02:25 We have seen, basically, a rise in geopolitical risks related to this file in prices, but
02:31 it did not last long, and it is as if the investor today is looking at many other files
02:36 that are not only related to these geopolitical risks.
02:40 If we look at the sectors, the share market and consumer goods are the sectors most
02:47 exposed to pressure due to these attacks that are taking place in the Red Sea.
02:52 Companies like Walmart, like IKEA, these companies today will suffer greatly because
02:58 most of their goods that they ship pass through this shortage and the Red Sea in general.
03:06 Therefore, today, you have to find other ports with shipping companies to ship these products.
03:15 The path of the goodwill is one of the most prominent routes, or it is one of the most
03:22 important routes, or the alternatives, for what is happening with the shortage of port
03:28 of Mendeb.
03:29 But the problem is that it will add 40% to the distance of the trip.
03:33 What does that mean?
03:34 This means additional costs.
03:36 These additional costs will be carried by shipping companies to companies like Walmart, like
03:41 IKEA, like any company that ships its products through this alternative route.
03:48 Therefore, these companies will transfer these additional costs to the consumer at the
03:53 end of the trip, which will increase prices and will bring pressure on prices and inflation
03:58 rates to rise.
04:00 We should have a common air-sea route, which is one of the alternatives.
04:05 The first step is to ship the goods by sea to the port of Dubai and then ship the goods
04:11 from Dubai through air cargo companies.
04:14 The problem with this route is that it adds a lot of costs.
04:18 Today, we have doubts in the shipping companies about the ability of the international sea
04:23 alliance led by America to achieve stability in the Red Sea region, because the file is
04:28 extensive.
04:29 It is also a file that contains many political aspects that no one can control.
04:35 Of course, we are now looking at the global shipping indicator, which we usually see
04:40 spikes or sharp rises when we have risks related to this shipping.
04:45 In the peak of the corona pandemic, you noticed these rises, and today we are talking about
04:49 rises even higher than the corona pandemic because of the attacks of the Red Sea.
04:54 Companies like Mersk, like many companies that work in the shipping sector, have raised
04:59 their shares sharply over the past period to reduce these risks.
05:05 And indeed, the global economy today is in danger.