All eyes on Hungary's Orban as EU decides on Ukraine support
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00:00 Well, the Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine told us a few days ago that the country has
00:05 fulfilled all seven steps that the European Commission set out as a precondition to start
00:12 accession negotiations with the European Union.
00:15 If you actually look at what the European Commission set out in its formal report on
00:21 this night, which was on the 8th of November, it was a little bit more circumspect.
00:26 The European Commission said that the Ukrainian state had made substantial progress on meeting
00:34 the seven steps, so it didn't actually say exactly whether it was three or seven.
00:40 But firstly, the number of steps that Ukraine has fulfilled, that could have obviously shifted
00:47 between the 8th of November and when I spoke to the Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine.
00:52 In any case, there won't be another formal assessment by the European Commission until
00:57 March.
00:58 So it's perhaps a bit of a grey area, but I guess you could say the bottom line is that
01:02 the European Commission did recommend at the beginning of November the start of accession
01:09 negotiations for Ukraine and for Moldova.
01:13 So that is what Viktor Orban is going against in pushing back on, let's say, at the start
01:20 of this very important summit here in Brussels.
01:22 And Armen, it's important to reiterate that whatever Ukrainian diplomats are saying, actually
01:28 whatever most members of the European Union are saying, on these key issues of funding
01:34 and EU membership, Orban has the power of a veto.
01:41 Viktor Orban really has the keys to two possible deals here in Brussels.
01:50 One is the EU budget, so at stake is something called the multi-financial framework, which
01:56 is the long-term EU budget that actually contains 50 billion euros in aid to Ukraine, budget
02:04 aid to Ukraine.
02:05 So if there were to be a deal on the budget, if Viktor Orban could be brought on board
02:12 with that in some way, that would basically free up that 50 billion euros in support to
02:22 Ukraine.
02:23 And the other big question that Orban has this power to block is giving a strong political
02:31 signal to Ukraine on enlargement.
02:35 And we heard from President Zelensky, who addressed the summit a little bit earlier
02:40 today.
02:41 There was a lot of speculation swirling around in Brussels earlier today that Zelensky would
02:48 actually make an in-person appearance, given how critical Ukraine sees this European aid
02:55 right now, and that he would be coming here because he was only a couple of hours away
03:01 in Norway.
03:03 But in the end, he addressed the summit by video conference.
03:07 We just asked some EU officials here.
03:09 Was he not invited in person in order to not put Viktor Orban in a corner, in order not
03:16 to basically push Viktor Orban away from, even further away from the other EU colleagues?
03:25 And we didn't really get a completely straight answer on that.
03:28 So maybe that was the reason, maybe it wasn't in the end anyway.
03:31 Zelensky addressed EU summit leaders, as he often has done, by video conference.
03:36 And I think it was pretty obvious from his comments that he does see this situation as
03:40 extremely urgent.
03:42 And you have to, of course, remember the backdrop, Nadia, as well.
03:46 There's been a bit of a political shift in the United States to a big question as to
03:50 how long the US is going to be supporting Ukraine financially.
03:56 That means that anything that is decided here, in what could be a very long summit in Brussels,
04:00 anything that is decided or not decided here is going to be watched just as closely in
04:06 Washington as it will be in Moscow.