The Big Question: IEA boss shares candid views on climate reality

euronews (in English)

Are climate goals still reachable? The executive director of the International Energy Agency speaks to Euronews Business' Angela Barnes about whether the transition to net-zero by 2050 is really possible.

Transcript

00:00 Our energy world in 2030, only seven years from now,

00:05 will be very different compared to what we have today.

00:09 I think whoever says that the reaching climate course

00:13 is impossible, they are on the wrong side of the history.

00:17 - Welcome to The Big Question,

00:25 the series from Euronews,

00:27 which seeks to take you inside the minds

00:30 of some of the most extraordinary people

00:33 in the world of business.

00:34 Well, we'll be discussing what makes them tick

00:37 and answer some of the most, well, the industry's simple,

00:40 but yet they're some of the biggest questions

00:43 we want answering.

00:44 Well, in this episode, we're going to be talking

00:47 to Dr. Fatih Birol, the Executive Director

00:50 of the International Energy Agency.

00:53 And we'll be asking him, among other things,

00:55 whether net zero by 2050 is still really achievable.

01:00 Dr. Birol, thank you very much for joining us today.

01:08 We have a lot to talk about.

01:10 Of course, energy is the hot topic at the moment,

01:13 the energy transition, sustainability,

01:16 and also, of course, this is all amidst

01:18 the cost of living crisis as well.

01:20 But let's start with the IEA's most recent

01:22 World Energy Outlook, which was published in October,

01:25 of course, which says that while coal use enters

01:28 a steep decline after 2030, gas and oil use

01:31 remains close to peak level for the next two decades.

01:34 So one of the questions then, despite all of the efforts

01:38 with the green energy transition,

01:40 why is it that this is still expected to be the case?

01:44 One of the main findings for which is very interesting,

01:48 especially nowadays, to underline is our energy world

01:52 in 2030, only seven years from now,

01:55 will be very different compared to what we have today.

01:59 The reason is clean energy technologies

02:03 are moving very fast, faster than many of us realize.

02:08 If I may, I give a couple of example

02:11 from our daily lives, electric cars.

02:14 So only three years ago, one out of 25 cars

02:19 sold in the world was an electric car.

02:23 This year, one out of five cars sold is electric

02:28 because they are going very strongly.

02:30 And in 2030, every second car sold in the world

02:35 will be an electric car.

02:36 Or another thing, renewable energies, solar, wind.

02:40 We expect between now and 2030,

02:44 every single year of all power plants built in the world,

02:48 the entire world, more than 80% of them will be renewables.

02:53 More than 80% of all power plants in the world

02:57 will be renewables, only a small part will be fossil fuels

03:00 because they are becoming cheaper.

03:02 So there are many examples like that.

03:04 Clean energies are becoming cost-effective,

03:07 namely cheaper, and governments do give support to them.

03:11 As a result of that, in 2030, we will still, of course,

03:15 have a lot of fossil fuels, as you mentioned,

03:19 coal, oil, and gas, but the clean energy growth

03:22 is unstoppable, nobody can stop that.

03:26 - And Dr. Brill, though, to get that transition, though,

03:29 whilst all countries are moving towards those same goals,

03:32 of course, it's not as easy for other countries.

03:34 For you, are there any noticeable geographical disparities

03:37 and how can that be better balanced?

03:39 - So, of course, to make this transition

03:43 needs financial muscles.

03:46 If you're a rich country, you can afford this much easier

03:51 than the others, or you need right, good policies.

03:56 For Europe, the fight against climate change,

04:00 clean energy has been a priority all the time.

04:04 But there's other country, which is China.

04:07 Today, China is the number one in terms of solar,

04:12 number one in terms of wind energy,

04:14 number one in terms of electric cars,

04:16 hydropower, and everything, because Chinese government

04:20 took this as a nation strategy since almost 10, 15 years,

04:24 and they are going very strongly.

04:27 But at the same time, China is using a lot of coal as well.

04:30 We have to put the things in perspective.

04:32 When we look at the developing countries,

04:35 such as in Africa, in other parts of Asia,

04:38 they are still lagging behind, and it is very important

04:42 that especially rich countries support them

04:46 to finance their clean energy transitions.

04:50 - Are there any particular countries or companies

04:54 that are, in your view, holding up the transition?

04:57 - I see a growing decalage, growing gap

05:01 between what some companies and the government say

05:05 and what they do in the real life.

05:07 Some companies, especially some European energy companies,

05:11 are moving in the right direction,

05:12 but to be very frank with you,

05:15 when I look at the globally, the oil and gas industry,

05:19 they are far from where they should have been,

05:24 in my view, and this is very unfortunate,

05:28 because they could be a very good ally, partner,

05:33 all of us to reach our targets,

05:34 because they know a lot of,

05:37 they have a lot of engineering skills,

05:39 they have deep pockets, they have experience.

05:41 Unfortunately, they don't, most of them,

05:44 they don't make use of these skills

05:46 and the financial muscles to address climate change.

05:50 This is really disappointing.

05:52 (dramatic music)

05:55 - And that brings me, as well, Dr. Birol,

06:00 to talking about your role at the IEA,

06:03 because you're the diplomat,

06:05 you're the mediator, the consultant,

06:07 you play so many roles,

06:09 but can you just explain to our audience

06:12 what exactly the tasks are behind the title?

06:16 - Okay, so I talk with the government leaders around the world,

06:21 the decision makers, but also business leaders

06:24 and the investors to tell them,

06:26 we are a data organization, number-driven organization.

06:30 We tell them, these are the numbers,

06:31 these are the consequences,

06:33 and it is better for you if you go this way,

06:36 but if you go that way, you may have trouble.

06:39 So it's then up to them to take it up or not.

06:42 We are, in fact, very proud that many governments listen

06:46 our suggestions, our recommendations closely,

06:50 the example was after 24th of February,

06:53 after Russia's invasion of Ukraine,

06:56 we came up with a 10-point plan,

06:58 what the European countries need to do

07:01 in order to have an easier winter, last winter,

07:05 and reduce the role of Russian energy,

07:09 and they did follow our suggestions,

07:11 and Europe, under circumstances,

07:14 had an easy winter last year.

07:17 - Yeah, certainly a huge transition.

07:19 - Very different from moving away from Russian oil and gas.

07:22 - Exactly.

07:23 - You can see the headway that has been made.

07:26 Dr. Birrell, I just wanted to bring back to prior to 2021,

07:30 where there was some criticism at the time

07:31 that the IEA was not doing enough

07:33 to tackle the climate crisis,

07:35 but that year, the IEA published a groundbreaking report,

07:39 it was very well publicized at the time,

07:40 which laid out a pathway to net zero emissions by 2050.

07:44 Now, what had changed economically

07:47 for it to be the right time to act then?

07:49 - Yes, so IEA is, for several reasons,

07:53 under the spotlight.

07:55 So, before, some people were saying

07:58 that we were not pushing the climate agenda enough,

08:01 and now some people are saying

08:02 that we are pushing the climate agenda too strongly,

08:04 so there are different views on that.

08:06 But for us, my motto is, "No fear, no favor."

08:11 We look at the data, whatever the data says,

08:14 but in the year 2021, two years ago,

08:18 we made, as people call it,

08:21 the seminal work of the energy industry,

08:24 what needs to happen in the energy industry

08:28 to bring our emissions to net zero by 2050.

08:32 And energy is at the heart of it,

08:33 because about 80% of the emissions causing climate change

08:38 comes from the energy sector.

08:41 So, we showed two years ago

08:43 how we can reduce these emissions in the energy sector

08:48 to be in line with what scientists tell us.

08:51 All the details were analyzed,

08:54 gave some concrete recommendations to governments,

08:57 and now I am very happy to say that the many investors,

09:01 even when they are judging the shareholders of a company,

09:05 they look at the IEA's report.

09:08 IEA says this, but you are doing that.

09:11 What is the problem?

09:12 (dramatic music)

09:14 - You laid out targets as well, such as by 2015,

09:20 90% of electricity should come from renewable energy sources.

09:24 In your personal opinion, regardless of other views

09:28 and your role, do you personally believe

09:31 that this is doable?

09:32 - I personally believe this is doable.

09:35 The only issue I see, to be very frank,

09:39 and there are, of course, challenges,

09:40 economic challenges, technological challenges.

09:43 The only challenge I see is the lack

09:47 of international collaboration among the countries.

09:51 This is the main problem, the fragmentation

09:53 we are seeing around the world today.

09:55 If we can overcome that, either international fragmentation

10:00 goes to international cooperation,

10:01 or countries make an exception, the climate change,

10:06 put all their political problems aside

10:10 and focus on the climate change.

10:12 If there is international collaboration,

10:13 I believe we can reach our climate targets.

10:17 - And what would you say is the biggest challenge

10:19 for them to try and all come on board?

10:22 - I think they should be, all the companies,

10:26 all the countries should really believe

10:28 that this is achievable, and at the same time,

10:33 if we can't achieve that, they themselves

10:36 will be in trouble.

10:37 I mean, everybody is saying that,

10:38 why is IES pushing this so strongly?

10:40 It is, we are here, 400 people.

10:44 I am very fortunate to be in the top 400 experts

10:47 of the world, but it is a problem for everybody.

10:51 Even you are an executive of an oil company,

10:54 you, your partner, your children are also exposed

10:59 to the impacts of climate change.

11:06 - I wanted to touch on nuclear with you as well,

11:09 because obviously it's a big issue

11:11 impacting EU directives moving forward.

11:14 France, as you know, for example,

11:15 for all four nuclear power in Germany against it.

11:18 What's your view on nuclear power?

11:21 - So I have a respect for all the countries,

11:23 whatever they choose, but we have to tell the people

11:26 what are the consequences.

11:28 If it is left to me, I believe the nuclear

11:32 is a important policy tool to address the climate change

11:37 in the countries where it is accepted.

11:40 And when I look around the world,

11:42 nuclear is making a very strong comeback.

11:45 You know, it is also driven, not only by climate change

11:48 concerns, but also for the energy security.

11:52 People want to generate electricity as much as possible

11:55 at home and rely as little as possible on other countries.

12:00 So nuclear energy, if you have a nuclear power plant,

12:03 like it is in France now, you import less energy

12:08 because you can produce a lot here.

12:10 When I look at the future of electricity,

12:13 I see a nuclear to play a role,

12:16 but the lion's share will be still renewable energies,

12:20 especially solar, followed by wind and hydropower

12:25 and the others.

12:25 - It's very interesting.

12:26 We'll be keeping across that, of course,

12:28 and I'm sure we'll be coming back to you on nuclear again

12:29 at some point in the future as developments continue.

12:33 One of the other big questions in all of this, Dr. Biryal,

12:35 is what are the economic factors still limiting

12:38 the green energy transition?

12:40 - When we look around the world and the financing,

12:44 the situation is not very bad.

12:46 You remember in 2015, we had a Paris Agreement here.

12:51 At that time, the entire budget of the energy world,

12:55 energy investment, everything from coal, oil,

12:58 to renewables was about $2 trillion.

13:00 Out of this $2 trillion, $1 trillion went for fossil fuels,

13:06 $1 trillion went for clean energy,

13:08 so one to one in the year 2015.

13:11 Today, fossil fuels still $1 trillion,

13:15 clean energy is close to $2 trillion.

13:19 So there's a strong growth of clean energy.

13:22 But there are two problems here.

13:24 This growth of clean energy investments,

13:28 not fast enough, but more importantly,

13:33 this clean energy investment happening mainly

13:36 in the advanced economies and in China.

13:39 The fault line of the whole problem is,

13:42 not enough clean energy investment is happening

13:45 in the developing world.

13:47 How we are going to support those countries

13:52 in order to make them a necessary investment

13:56 for clean energy, for solar, for wind,

13:58 for efficiency, for electric cars and others.

14:02 And it is in the interest of everybody,

14:06 even for the advanced economies,

14:08 so that they make this investment.

14:10 Because when we talk about climate change,

14:14 for example, we are in Paris today in Europe,

14:18 the climate in France will not only be affected

14:22 by the emissions in Europe,

14:25 but it's emissions coming from Jakarta

14:27 or from Detroit or Sao Paulo.

14:30 The emissions don't have a passport.

14:32 It is important for the Europeans or the Americans

14:36 or the Japanese that the clean energy investment

14:40 is happening also in the developing world,

14:43 not for ethical and moral reasons,

14:45 but very selfish reasons,

14:47 because if the emissions in those countries

14:50 do not go down, they themselves will be in trouble.

14:54 - I really like what you said there,

14:55 emissions don't have a passport.

14:57 I would love to talk to you more about that,

14:58 but we are running out of time,

15:00 but I just want to squeeze in one more question

15:02 on looking at the global energy landscape

15:05 and how you think things will look in 2050.

15:09 Any surprising predictions, Dr. Birol?

15:12 - I am a big believer of the technological innovation

15:16 and we are seeing that a lot of new technologies

15:20 coming to market and new technologies,

15:22 plus more importantly, the clean technologies we have

15:27 are becoming cheaper and cheaper.

15:29 For example, 20 years ago, when I talk about solar,

15:32 it was considered as a romantic story.

15:36 And now solar is the number one source of new power plants.

15:41 Its cost came down substantially.

15:44 That romantic story became the real today.

15:47 I'm expecting in 2050, many of the technologies

15:50 we have today, which seems very surreal,

15:54 very difficult, is the hydrogen,

15:55 it is the fuel cells and the others,

15:58 will become our day-to-day life.

16:01 And I think whoever says that reaching climate course

16:06 is impossible, they are on the wrong side of the story.

16:12 IEA is here, IEA will be here to lead the fight

16:15 against climate change.

16:16 - Excellent, thank you, Dr. Birol.

16:17 And the very best of luck and with your ongoing work

16:21 that you're doing here at the IEA.

16:22 And thank you very much for talking to us

16:24 on The Big Question.

16:25 - Thank you very much. - Thank you.

16:26 - Thank you.

16:27 (upbeat music)

16:30 (upbeat music)

16:32 [MUSIC]

16:34 [BLANK_AUDIO]

Category

Transcript

Recommended