00:00 Sir, tell us what is the importance of gold for a common man?
00:09 Because the festive season is coming, so in the festive season we often see that the
00:13 demand for gold increases a lot.
00:15 So what is the importance of gold for a common man?
00:18 Look, if I talk about the common man of India, then the importance of gold is different for
00:24 him than that of a common man in the US, Europe or Japan.
00:29 So in our country, there has been a tradition for thousands of years that gold has not been
00:36 seen as a commodity, gold is a precious metal which is somehow connected to Hinduism.
00:48 Perhaps Hinduism is the only religion in the world where there are certain festivals throughout
00:56 the year, like Dhan Teras, Akshaya Tritiya, Navratri, Diwali or even our wedding season
01:02 where it has been accepted that buying gold is auspicious.
01:13 Not only has gold been seen as a good investment, but buying gold has been considered auspicious
01:20 on many occasions.
01:23 So there is a great importance of gold in India and perhaps this is the reason that
01:30 if I talk about the whole world, then there are 1,70,000 tons of gold.
01:35 All the gold that has been mined from prehistoric times to today, if I add all of them, then
01:43 there are 1,70,000 tons.
01:45 There is no exact figure, but it is almost certain that out of that 1,70,000 tons, there
01:55 are 35,000 to 45,000 tons in India.
01:59 And this is in those circumstances where India has never been a big producer of gold.
02:05 We have always been the number one or number two consumer of gold.
02:11 At this time, China and India are almost on the same level.
02:16 And we have been the biggest importer because China has a lot of gold production.
02:21 So the more gold they produce, the more gold they consume.
02:26 India's almost all gold consumption comes from abroad.
02:31 So if today, if we have 20 to 25% gold in India, while India has never been a big producer,
02:42 then you can assume that our tradition, our Hindu religion or the mentality of our people
02:54 is so connected to gold.
02:58 The mentality of people is also connected to gold.
03:01 What importance does gold have for an investor?
03:05 If I talk a little bit differently from the emotional reasons, then gold has a lot of
03:15 significance for a common investor.
03:20 If I talk about the last 2,000 to 3,000 years, then there have been times in the world when
03:31 gold has emerged as a main currency.
03:39 Especially when there are very big wars.
03:42 Or when we saw in Roman civilization, when Roman civilization was at its peak,
03:50 at that time the price of gold was not that high.
03:57 But as the civilization was falling, the price of gold kept increasing.
04:08 So in times of chaos, times of revolution or times of war, gold has always emerged as
04:15 a very important asset, a very important wealth or currency for the whole world, for every
04:22 civilization or for every continent.
04:25 But now that we are in the 21st century, gold has become a very important currency.
04:34 But now that we are in the 21st century, all those things that used to be very common in
04:40 some time, that civilization is coming, going, regime is changing, those things are not so
04:46 much in today's date.
04:48 But still, gold is very important for a common investor.
04:53 There are times when, for example, if inflation is going out of control, which we have seen
05:02 in the developed world, but if I talk about Turkey or Argentina or a few years ago Venezuela
05:12 and Zimbabwe, there was hyperinflation, which was an inflation of thousands and lakhs of
05:18 percent.
05:19 There people adopted gold because they knew that the value of their currency may be reduced
05:26 or it may continue to decrease, but if they buy gold, then its value will remain the same
05:32 or there is a possibility of increasing.
05:34 So I think that times of hyperinflation, times of acute slowdown or recession or if the interest
05:44 rates are very low and instead of inflation, we are in an environment of deflation, then
05:50 you can assume that we are in deflation or hyperinflation or the interest rates are very
05:57 low in the whole world or there is a slowdown in the whole world, as we saw in 2020 or we
06:07 saw many times before that in the last 20-30 years.
06:10 In such times, gold gives stability to your portfolio and your other asset classes may
06:17 be going negative, but gold holds your value, rather it increases the value of your portfolio.
06:25 So somewhere in your portfolio, it plays a stabilizing role, a counter-cyclical role,
06:34 which is very important for an investor.
06:39 What is the importance of gold in Diwali?
06:42 If I connect it with Hinduism, then definitely it has been our tradition that on big festivals,
06:58 there is a tradition that you can buy a little gold, whether in the form of jewelry or in
07:11 the form of a coin or a biscuit, so this tradition has always been there.
07:21 But as far as our question is concerned, the clients we have are from different nations
07:30 and different religions, we have clients from all over the world.
07:36 So obviously, the people of other religions or people outside of India, their symbolic
07:45 or emotional importance is not that much, so we advise all our clients in such a way
07:54 that if we feel that our approach to fund management is macro top-down, we try to see
08:02 where we are in the economic cycle of the whole world, where we are in the cycle for
08:08 the development of the economy, and according to that, we try to decide which asset class
08:15 will do well and which asset class will do badly.
08:18 I believe that in the next 3-4 years, gold will perform very well, so whether it is Diwali
08:26 or Eid or any other occasion, if I feel that in the next 4 years gold is a very good investment,
08:34 then we will always be a buyer of gold.
08:38 And if we have come to a time when we did not find gold to be a very good investment,
08:44 for example, from 2011 to 2015-16, gold was a very suppressed asset class and it was going
08:54 down from its bull market top, so many years have passed where we have not seen gold investing
09:03 in the market, but now the time has changed completely.
09:08 Especially after Covid, the situation has changed a lot.
09:12 Look, the situation changed during Covid, but what happened after Covid was that the
09:17 interest rates started increasing very fast after 2021-22, so there gold also started
09:22 to be a little suppressed, but I feel that the interest rates have increased to a great
09:27 extent, the dollar index has increased as much as it had to, in this I can see very
09:33 clearly that gold in dollar terms, if I talk about it, is now around $1965, I believe that
09:43 in the next year gold should be around $2400 in dollar terms and in rupee terms I see a
09:53 price above $17,000, so in this we will definitely advise you to invest in gold, but gradually
10:00 in portfolios we will advise you to allocate higher and higher to gold, so as far as our
10:06 investment is concerned, there for us Diwali and Dhan Teras are not that important days,
10:14 if we feel that a day before or a week after Dhan Teras if the price of gold will be low,
10:20 then we will buy on those days instead of Dhan Teras, but look, because our feelings
10:25 are connected to many people, so we definitely tell them that if you are not feeling that
10:32 gold is a very good investment, then we will tell them that if your feelings are connected
10:39 then for a little good, you can take physical gold, but as far as the question of investment
10:44 is concerned, everything depends on our scenario and outlook, there we see ourselves a little
10:51 away from our feelings or our tradition or Hindu religion.
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