00:00 Welcome, Raed, to our show.
00:04 Maybe it's not the sound of war, but the sound of its effects.
00:08 If the fear is greater than the expansion of this war, how do you see the effects so far, Raed?
00:16 In fact, the geopolitical tensions, the markets are sensitive and very careful.
00:24 And the biggest sensitivity comes from not limiting the horizons to the possibility of rising to any level or expanding the gap of the dispute, or entering new parties in the equation or in these geopolitical tensions.
00:45 So, we saw on Friday that there was a kind of risk-off mood, very strong, not wanting to take any risks at all.
00:56 We entered the weekend, no one wanted to see any surprises in the special governorate.
01:05 So, there was a clear direction to abandon the risk and look for safe places.
01:12 We saw gold rising, adding about more than 45 dollars per ounce, in total, today it was 51 dollars in the upward trend.
01:25 Clearly, this is the result of not having clarity.
01:32 At the same time, I entered the weekend, there may be major events that take place, or the governorate may be exposed, especially because there was a possibility that there was a great pressure on the stock markets, or the high-risk assets at the same time.
01:51 - Raed, in your opinion, how will these risks affect the future of the federal government in November?
02:04 Will it have an impact and determine the price continuity in the upward trend?
02:08 This may lead to a larger inflation.
02:11 How much has the perspective changed for the financial policy makers, in your opinion?
02:15 - As you said, there is no voice to raise against the war.
02:21 But also, regarding the markets, if there are changes and scary horizons for new parties to enter, I think this is what moves the markets, or is the most prominent in moving the markets.
02:34 But as for the changes in the financial policy and its impact on the overall economy, nothing has really changed in the economic impact so far.
02:43 Perhaps the high prices of oil over the medium to long term may show that we have an increase in CPI indicators, or the main indicators that clearly show an increase in inflation levels,
03:01 and that this will not exclude the effects of food and energy, because there will undoubtedly be increases as a result of the increase in energy prices.
03:08 But over the long term, I want to see CPI's again above 4% so that there is a direction to strengthen the financial policy more.
03:17 Even now, the signals we have received from the overall economy, whether it is inflation or the labor market, or the inflation of the labor market and basic income in the United States,
03:29 do not really scare the federal government to make a big increase in interest rates.
03:34 Rather, the focus is to maintain high interest rates at current levels, perhaps even in the middle of next year.
03:43 This is the best estimate. Then we will look for the possibility of reducing interest rates, because we are starting to see negative signals in the overall economic outcome.
03:52 Good. Green and yellow are the most interesting colors. There are several colors, I am talking about gold and dollars.
04:01 How much do you expect with the continuation of these geopolitical tensions?
04:07 We saw on Friday that the movement towards safe currencies has returned to a very large traditional.
04:19 We saw a trend towards the US dollar, so the US dollar-JPY pair did not see major changes,
04:27 because both directions, whether it was on the Japanese yen or the US dollar, were clear, and that is to avoid risks.
04:37 We saw an increase in the value of bonds, or treasury bonds, and at the same time, we saw an increase in gold prices.
04:47 As we mentioned, gold added about $50 in transactions on Friday only.
04:52 Today, gold returns to the returns again at about $15, but these returns may have reached up to $20 so far.
05:01 These returns are very normal, and our stability above the levels of 1910 may give an opportunity,
05:11 because gold was trying to rise without the influence of geopolitical tensions.
05:16 There were attempts to rise, but the great support for the rise that occurred in gold prices was due to geopolitical tensions.
05:23 As a result, the distances were brought closer, as we say, but the general trend towards gold in the medium term is still high.
05:33 Therefore, the reforms that we are seeing on gold prices, if they remain limited above $1,900 per ounce,
05:39 can very well form the basis for a high wave that returns again to the levels of about $2,000.
05:46 [BLANK_AUDIO]
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