00:00 All right, so we've talked about the Dolphins offense and what the Patriots might do their defensively a little bit
00:05 we've talked about the Dolphins defense and
00:07 What the Patriots should be able to do on Sunday night, which all leads us to the fan duel line
00:14 our friends at fan duel again this episode brought to you by
00:17 FanDuel and right now fan duel has Miami as the three-point favorite. So the Patriots are a home dog
00:26 Miami is minus three in this game. The over-under is 46 and a half
00:30 Before we get into our picks a couple things
00:33 but dad
00:35 When you look back at what he's done at the beginning of last year
00:38 So last year the dad was 15 and 2 straight up. He was 14 and 3 versus the spread
00:44 So now after last week, he is 16 and 2 and 15 and 3
00:48 Yeah, I got my record. I got I got I got to find my record from the year before - I got it
00:53 I got a I can see what what kind of streak I'm on. I'm
00:56 Anything? Yeah, I don't I don't keep these I I just kind of replace the documents
01:02 I don't keep them. Usually I keep everything but I know last year I was either 15 and 2 or 16 and 1
01:07 Yeah, I know one game. I I know one game Chicago was one that I got me and I think maybe
01:14 Minnesota might have gotten me I think I think I'm 15 and 2 say I think I was 16 and 1 straight up or 15
01:21 I don't know one of those. I do know I had last week, right? I by Sunday tweeted out
01:26 2720 Eagles so pretty damn close with that call. So want to know last week
01:31 So we're both want to know heading into week two again with that said Miami Greg - three the over-under is 46 and a half
01:38 Are you gonna give your pick this time or we're gonna have to wait and go to PSJ?
01:43 Well, I mean my final pick will be on PSJ. I mean, it's still only Thursday night
01:48 So I got a little bit more film to watch but I could tell you right now. I
01:53 Would bet the farm on the Patriots in this game. I'm taking I'm talking I'm talking money line
01:59 Maybe maybe the over I'm not so sure about that. I'm definitely betting the money line on the Patriots in this game
02:05 I think I already have and I would parlay it with something about total rushing yards and
02:12 Maybe maybe either Ramond Ray Stevenson over a hundred yards or maybe you know over 200 yards or
02:19 Ramond Ray Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott each over a hundred yards. I mean not Nick, you know me we've been doing this for a few years
02:27 You know, I don't I don't BS around I want to be right with my picks
02:32 I
02:34 Tell you when I have conviction. I tell you when I'm not sure I don't love this game
02:38 But this is what the way I'm leaning. I love the Patriots in this game. I absolutely love them
02:44 I would be surprised if they do not win on Sunday night. I expect the the the narrative on Sunday night to be
02:52 Look at what Bill Belichick did to stop the Dolphins offense and Tyreek Hill
02:57 Look at the off look at the look at what the offense Billy O'Brien's offense now
03:01 They're one in one that the Jets don't have Aaron Rodgers like look out. We're cooking
03:06 That's what I expect if the Patriots lose this game in our own - I'm gonna be very surprised
03:12 I think that this game is right up their alley and look I am counting on the Patriots that they've done a lot of homework
03:18 on the Dolphins in the offseason the defensive coaches and remember what we've talked about with Billy O'Brien being back and
03:25 How that frees up Bill Belichick to do his thing and that means dive in on the defensive game plan more
03:31 Against good offenses where last year he was never there
03:34 He was with the offense and they stunk a good against good offenses and he's back helping the special teams
03:39 Which was which won their matchup against the Eagles last week, you know
03:44 And so I think the Patriots in Bill Belichick are getting their groove back a little bit like I look I'm not gonna go crazy
03:50 I'm not looking down the line
03:52 I'm not telling you what they're gonna do and how landscape changes and how my how I've if I've come off seven and ten
03:58 Well, it's probably eight nine now with it another Jets victory
04:03 you know, I haven't drastically changed but I'm just telling you for this week watching the film and
04:08 watching what I believe the Patriots are capable of as far as their defensive game plan their execution on that side of the ball and
04:15 How
04:18 Supremely disappointing the war the Dolphins were on defense against the Chargers. I
04:23 Think this is I think this is an easy game for them
04:26 Now, I don't know what the score is gonna be
04:27 But I'm taking the Patriots in the money line all day all the time and and I expect us to be talking about that
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05:09 Wow
05:12 I'm shocked. I
05:14 Honestly can't remember a time where you've been so confident that the Patriots were just gonna roll
05:22 I I can't like and look maybe maybe I should change that. I don't remember a game
05:27 where people
05:29 would not
05:31 Expect or anticipate the Patriots winning
05:33 For you to go as hard after them here as you are like, but you know some matchups
05:40 It's like alright this team sucks Patriots, you know, this should be a layup. They'll win this game
05:44 But you know if you listen to a lot of other people they will tell you this is gonna be a close game
05:50 It's gonna be a tight game
05:52 Greg's thinking they're gonna steamroll them if things are
05:55 According to the plan. I am NOT as I am NOT as confident Nick
06:01 I was just gonna say I think the good times are gonna be back in July Stadium on Sunday night
06:05 That's all I'm saying Wow
06:07 Apparently so you are you are cocksure about this game. Um
06:10 Look I think it come I think some of this comes down to health honestly, you know
06:16 Offensive line. I know Greg you said like it doesn't matter who's at the office
06:20 if a whenu and strange aren't back I
06:23 Think that's when things can get funky
06:26 All you need is a mistake or two and now a game that could be 10 to 14 points is now a seven point game
06:32 Or a three-point game if the Patriots are relatively healthy
06:36 Let's put it this way if the Patriots are as healthy as Greg thinks they're going to be say you have a whenu and strange
06:41 Out there or one of those two guys and Jonathan Jones plays
06:44 I do like the Patriots in this game by at least a touchdown. I do
06:49 You know scores again when you're dealing with health, I don't know
06:53 I'll throw it out there for now. This might change but to me it feels like a 24 to 17 game somewhere in that range
07:00 I think the Patriots can win by a touchdown
07:02 But if you're talking about, you know, no a whenu no strange
07:07 If you're talking about Jonathan Jones being limited with that ankle if you have both
07:12 You know Parker out and booty out and you got juju Smith Schuster on like one leg
07:18 I think there could be some issues
07:20 But if they are if they are relatively healthy, I like the Patriots in this one
07:24 So I would I would pick them getting the three
07:27 from Miami
07:29 Over under look I like the over. I like the over in this game. Yeah, I think I think both offenses could get frisky in this one
07:37 yeah, I mean, I know I said 24 17, but I
07:40 Don't know
07:44 You know what I'll go under screw it
07:46 I'm thinking about it because I do think the Patriots could keep the Dolphins between 17 and 24. So
07:52 If you get 17 you need
07:56 30 from the Pats
07:58 Could the Pat I mean listen listen to Greg. He's got me hemming and hawing now
08:03 Patriots could put up a 30 spot according to Greg apparently
08:07 Yep
08:11 All right, I'll get back to you on the over-under
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