- 2 years ago
Chelsea look set to complete the double swoop of Brighton's Moises Caicedo, and Southampton's Romeo Lavia. But with both players playing similar roles, the question has become "why would you want both?".
But a look at their differences, not their similarities, shows why Mauricio Pochettino has space for both players in his new-look side.
But a look at their differences, not their similarities, shows why Mauricio Pochettino has space for both players in his new-look side.
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00:00 Hello everybody, Adam Cleary from 442 here and football, that continues to be mad doesn't
00:09 it?
00:10 Chelsea have finally, finally announced the signing of Moyes' Caicedo and within the
00:13 next possibly even few hours they could announce the signing of Romeo Lavia from Southampton
00:18 as well.
00:19 And this has led to a whole host of people on the internet saying hang on, why would
00:22 you want to sign Lavia if you've just signed Caicedo?
00:25 And I can just, I can clear this up really quickly for everybody, right?
00:28 The reason you still want Lavia, even if you've just signed Caicedo, is because Lavia is great.
00:34 He's really great, he's really, really great.
00:38 So, oh sorry you wanted more than that did you?
00:42 Okay, right, well I'll see what I can do, your majesty.
00:48 Okay so first off to the people asking why you'd want Lavia and Caicedo, very simple
00:53 question for you, have you never had a Sunday dinner?
00:56 Like you could if you really wanted to try and make the argument that roast potatoes
01:00 and mashed potatoes are just, they're the same thing aren't they?
01:03 I mean they're both just potatoes aren't they?
01:04 They kind of taste the same, they're just a delivery method for the gravy after all.
01:08 But if you get offered roasties and mash, you'd take roasties and mash.
01:12 Like I know they're in the same position of like the food group chart or whatever you
01:16 call it, but they're different enough and both delicious that you don't deny yourself
01:20 that.
01:21 And just to stretch this metaphor to its absolute breaking point, if over a 38 Sunday dinner
01:26 dinner season you were for whatever reason without either roasties or mash, you'd still
01:30 be pretty content if you had the other one.
01:33 And crucially going into this season as anybody who watched Chelsea vs Liverpool will tell
01:37 you, Chelsea did not have either roasties or mash and that particular dinner was crying
01:43 out for some kind of potato accoutrement.
01:45 Think that's the right word.
01:46 So by extension potatoes are obviously very important to what Maurizio Pochettino was
01:50 cooking every single week for the next 8 months so it would be stupid to only buy enough to
01:56 make one version of them.
01:57 And if you are now sat there thinking just hang on a second wait a minute, doesn't this
02:01 channel normally talk about like stats and data and actual verifiable facts rather than
02:07 just going on unhinged rants about potatoes then yeah, yeah that's right we do do that
02:14 so let's do that.
02:16 Right so here are Romeo Lavia's FB ref stats as kind of a number 6 compared to Moises Caicedo
02:22 who is going to be his team mate, to Paulinho who was probably the standout player in that
02:26 role last season and to Fabinho who has probably been the standout player in this role for
02:31 the last few seasons.
02:32 Now there are some very obvious takeaways from looking at all these next to each other.
02:36 The first one is that you can see why Caicedo was valued at over 100 million, you can see
02:41 why Paulinho was just so important at Fulham last season and you can see why people started
02:46 to think that Fabinho was on the wane, those aren't the kind of numbers he's been posting
02:50 recently but they're still pretty good.
02:51 But as far as Lavia goes the takeaway from looking at his numbers is that he's just pretty
02:56 good, they're not particularly remarkable numbers, he clearly does a little bit of everything
03:00 reasonably well, he's a solid, solid player in that position so why you could be forgiven
03:06 for asking all this hype, why all this money?
03:09 Well and it's funny you're gonna kick yourself on this one right, when you compare his numbers
03:13 to Caicedo, arguably the best player in the league at this and Paulinho, arguably the
03:17 player in the league who had the best season at this and Fabinho, arguably the player in
03:21 the league over the last few seasons who is the best at this, he's pretty good compared
03:27 to those three at f***ing 19.
03:30 Lavia should not be posting comparable numbers to players like Paulinho or Fabinho for at
03:34 least another three or four years, if you start going "wait a second, Caicedo's there"
03:39 he's still 21, he's two years further down the development line than Lavia is and he's
03:45 still comparable to him.
03:47 So the very, very short version of this video is the reason you'd go and get Lavia regardless
03:52 of who else you've got in your squad is because he is not a guaranteed starter for a Champions
03:57 League level side right now, but he will be in a year or two, cast iron guarantee.
04:04 And the beauty of Chelsea, the beauty of this transfer, is that they are not a Champions
04:08 League team at the minute, they hope to be again in a year or two's time.
04:12 So ta-da!
04:13 See the levels where Chelsea will be wanting to throw him in, he's already perfectly comfortable
04:19 playing at and by the time they're at the levels he's not, he will be.
04:23 Thing is though, and I know I did just say cast iron guarantee, that was probably a little
04:27 bit strong, anyway we're talking about things in the future right, these are all hypotheticals,
04:30 they haven't happened yet and the only way they are going to happen is if his development
04:33 continues on this upward trajectory and the only way that will happen is with game time.
04:39 And so by extension the other question everyone's asking is, well is he going to get enough
04:43 game time?
04:44 Chelsea haven't got the burden of European competition to provide them with all these
04:48 extra minutes for players, will he play enough?
04:51 And well yes, I genuinely think he will.
04:53 Like the reason I use that whole Sunday dinner analogy is not because I'm losing my mind,
04:57 although obviously that probably did help a bit, but because they are different players.
05:01 Like so think about Caicedo's best attributes, he's an incredible tackler of the ball which
05:05 we saw at Brighton, he's incredible at progressing up the field and evading presses and being
05:10 a central part of the build up.
05:11 Lavia has all these attributes, admittedly not to the same level, but he does have them
05:15 all, but what he does have over Caicedo is he is, if not necessarily a better passer,
05:21 a more dangerous passer.
05:22 Caicedo is fantastic at progressing the ball up the pitch with his running and bringing
05:26 others into play and going around people, but what Lavia did, and this was a great weapon
05:29 for Southampton last season, was play these line-breaking killer, really incisive passes.
05:36 It's annoyingly not something that's backed up by any data, but the eye test will tell
05:39 you that when Lavia gets his head up and he has the ball at his feet, he can find players
05:43 in better positions than Caicedo can.
05:46 And that's a pretty valuable thing for Chelsea to have if, as expected, Fernandes is playing
05:50 considerably further up the pitch.
05:51 It means for whatever reason, if they are required to go more direct, he hasn't got
05:55 to drop all the way back to be the player to do that, he can leave that to someone like
05:58 Lavia and continue to do all his good work in the final third, which as we discussed
06:02 yesterday, video's right there if you didn't see it, he's very good at.
06:06 And also while Caicedo is a much better tackler of the ball, he reads the game and he makes
06:10 these brilliant interceptions and he just goes through players and he wins it that way,
06:13 Lavia has something he doesn't, and that is just one of the best bail you out recovery
06:19 runs in the Premier League.
06:21 Like if we look at the difference in their numbers here between tackles and interceptions,
06:24 yep, Caicedo is miles ahead of him, but blocks, blocked passes and blocked shots, that is
06:29 something Lavia had to be good at at Southampton given how open they were, but it is also conveniently
06:34 something he just was really good at.
06:36 And that means in any sort of game state where the play is stretched, where Chelsea are really
06:40 committing, he's a slightly more valuable defensive midfielder to have than Caicedo
06:45 is because if you bypass Caicedo with a pass, that's probably him out of the game, whereas
06:49 Lavia is no bypassing him, he will just hunt you down.
06:53 And just so I've got myself on record as saying this, while I do think Caicedo is better in
06:57 all of these regards, I don't mean that Lavia isn't also at a top, top, top level for them,
07:02 like he does win the ball back brilliantly, he has a great tackling technique.
07:07 And then there's all the other various things that can just happen across the start of the
07:09 season, I don't think in a straight shot between him and Caicedo he's ever going to start ahead
07:13 of him, but there's no reason that doesn't mean that Chelsea can't play with three at
07:17 the back and use all of them, and because they're all really good at six, you can have
07:21 this kind of system where they all constantly move around, and imagine trying to defend
07:25 against that.
07:26 And there's also like Rhys James, like Chelsea is so much better as a team when he is on
07:31 the right side of defence and he can bob up from that position, but he still hasn't put
07:35 his injury stuff behind him, he went off against Liverpool, and yeah, Gusto came on, but I
07:40 would probably rather in that situation, purely for his ball carrying ability, have Caicedo
07:45 over there, and if you do that, well, you haven't got to worry about what you're losing
07:48 in the middle, because you've got mashed potato, Romeo Lavia.
07:51 So I do think genuinely across the course of a season, you will see games where they
07:54 start Lavia, Caicedo and Fernandes all at the same time, whether that's a tweak to the
07:59 system, whether they decide to play Fernandes in the 10, again, not the best, but you'd
08:02 have a really solid base to build from.
08:04 I think there's enough flexibility and enough game IQ in these players, and in Pochettino,
08:09 that he's a great, great, great option for them to have.
08:13 And just one final point in all of this, about money.
08:17 If you think the reason why Chelsea and Liverpool and also Arsenal are pushing so hard to get
08:22 Lavia in this window is because he got relegated with Southampton, so he's probably a little
08:26 bit cheaper than he would have been, then that is not the entire reason.
08:31 Southampton bought Lavia from Manchester City just 12 months ago for a measly, let's face
08:37 it, ÂŁ10 million, but City did not let him go because they did not rate him.
08:42 They let him go because they did not have a viable path into the first team for him.
08:46 They could not give him anywhere near the game time they knew his development required.
08:50 If you remember, they had a plan for Foden, they've got a plan for Parma, they've got
08:53 a plan for Rico Luis.
08:55 They do not have one for Lavia because, well, they play one single number six and Rodri
09:01 is playing there, and you've also got Calvin Phillips.
09:03 He's not getting a look in.
09:04 Now that was 12 months ago, and City are very aware that things can change.
09:08 It hasn't really worked out for Phillips.
09:09 Maybe Rodri wants a move, maybe he leaves, maybe he gets a bad injury.
09:12 Maybe they play a crazy new system with loads of number sixes in it.
09:16 Things can change, and City really did rate the player that Lavia could become, and thus
09:22 they inserted deep into the bowels of his contract a buyback clause.
09:29 Now I would argue if there wasn't a path into the first team for him a year ago, there almost
09:32 certainly will be in 12 months time.
09:35 So the reason all these teams are trying to get him right now is because it's either right
09:41 now or it's probably never.
09:43 So as a result, it looks like he's going to Chelsea and he's going there right now, and
09:46 I personally, personally think that is a brilliant bit of transfer business.
09:51 Unless you're Liverpool, in which case, terrible.
09:53 Sucks.
09:54 And before I go, just genuinely want to say a little thank you to everybody who commented
09:58 on yesterday's video saying like, "Oh, can you do one for Lavia, please?
10:02 I'd like to watch that."
10:03 Made me feel like a somebody.
10:05 That did, because I just sit here and do these to a room with no people in them.
10:08 So that was nice.
10:10 People wanted to know what I thought about this.
10:12 So there you go.
10:13 Hope you liked it.
10:14 And if you're now sitting there thinking, "Well, hang on, I've got a really good idea
10:15 for a video with players you want to see, tactics you want to discuss, game systems,
10:19 anything you think I'd be remotely good at," please get that in the comments and I'll have
10:23 a look.
10:24 And of course, as all other feedback, criticism, comments, someone said I look like Tom York
10:27 yesterday.
10:28 That gave me a little bit of a laugh.
10:29 All in the box below.
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10:46 seen this?
10:47 It's great."
10:48 In the meantime, though, Twitter, Instagram, threads, everything, @adamcleary, C-L-E-R-Y.
10:51 The 442 socials are in the corner for the entire video.
10:54 I don't know why I read them out, but you should still buy the latest issue of the world's
10:58 greatest football magazine, the season preview issue.
11:01 The best one we do.
11:02 Here's a preview.
11:03 Oh, in stores now.
11:04 Go and treat yourself to that.
11:05 And until next time, sub a name, said what you could do.
11:09 That's everything.
11:10 Bye.
11:10 (laughs)
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