00:00 How does the SAAF's report look at the year and the coming years?
00:06 The most striking is the report's report on the economic performance in Saudi Arabia in 2022.
00:14 The Saudi economy was the highest in terms of recorded growth levels among the G20 group.
00:20 It grew by 8.7% and the report indicated an increase in oil production and an increase in non-oil economy by 4.8%.
00:30 It was said that the output gap was closed in 2022.
00:37 Let's look at the expected economic figures for the coming year, especially in light of the decision by the Kingdom to extend the voluntary reduction of production levels by 1 million barrels per day until the end of the year.
00:50 This will increase prices but will mean less oil revenues for the Kingdom, as sales and exports will decline.
01:00 First, the figures mentioned by the IMF regarding the unemployment rate.
01:08 The unemployment rate in 2022 was 4.8% with the knowledge that it reached levels of over 9% in the year of the coronavirus.
01:19 The recovery of the labor market was very fast.
01:22 The report also mentioned the participation rate which increased significantly.
01:28 The economic growth was the fastest in the G20 group.
01:33 The expected growth for this year is 1.9%.
01:36 Notice that it grew by 8.7% compared to the expected growth of 1.9%.
01:40 Why?
01:41 The reason is that the Kingdom is reducing its production levels.
01:46 This is reflected in the IMF estimates for this year.
01:50 The IMF estimates 2.8% for 2024 because it believes that the Kingdom is over-policing its production levels during this year.
02:01 As for the inflation rates, after it reached 3.4% in 2023, today it is 2.3%.
02:12 This is a very positive level because it shows that the inflation pressure is contained in the Kingdom.
02:20 Due to the link between the Saudi Riyal and the US Dollar, Sama is forced to raise the inflation rates as we have seen by the US Federal Reserve.
02:30 But since the Federal Reserve reached its peak in terms of interest rates,
02:35 this means that Sama has reached the peak of interest rates.
02:42 This will give comfort to Saudi companies and the private sector.
02:47 The Central Bank has foreign assets of 440 billion Riyals, which we recorded in 2022,
02:55 and 427 billion Riyals, which we recorded in 2023.
03:00 These are the expectations for the coming years.
03:05 As for 2024, we are talking about these levels.
03:08 What are the risks and opportunities for the Saudi economy?
03:12 These are the expectations for the non-oil economy.
03:16 We are talking about a 4.8% growth for the previous year.
03:21 We will see the same growth in 2023 and we will see 4.4% for the next year.
03:28 The risks are balanced.
03:30 We only have the impact of oil refineries.
03:33 The market and the investor know this.
03:36 It is not surprising that the oil refineries will reflect some of the oil revenues.
03:42 According to the report of the International Monetary Fund,
03:45 we recorded the first surplus in the Saudi balance sheet from 2013 to 2022.
03:51 We reached a surplus of 2.5%.
03:56 The expectations of the International Monetary Fund are that we will have a deficit of 1.2%
04:04 in order to reduce the Saudi Kingdom's production levels to maintain the balance between supply and demand.
04:11 But even with the decline in oil production levels,
04:14 the report indicates that we will see an increase in the non-oil sector and the non-oil economy,
04:19 which may be compensated for some of the pressure we are seeing on the oil economy.
04:24 The expected deficit of 1.2% of GDP this year is not surprising,
04:32 since the Saudi economy is an oil economy and has two priorities.
04:38 The first priority is to maintain the stability of the Kingdom's economy
04:42 and to support the general balance and the general financial situation.
04:45 The second priority is to maintain stability in the oil market.
04:50 The recommendations of the International Monetary Fund are to increase the general financial balance,
04:54 to maintain the added value tax rate and to contain the tax rate of wages and reforms,
05:00 because the added value tax rate is also causing the government to have non-oil interests
05:06 and is creating a kind of stability for all interests of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
05:10 Avoid the private sector's competition and continue to frame the management of assets
05:14 and also the economic situation,
05:17 because we heard from the report that they are advocating to strengthen the Egyptian sector in Saudi Arabia,
05:23 the green initiatives and also to improve the government's efficiency in supporting digital transformation.
05:28 All of this has helped the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to support these files in its economy over the past period.
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