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00:00 Joining me now is our international affairs commentator, Douglas Herbert.
00:04 Doug, critics have called ASEAN, this 10 nation associations, as a body which is both irreverent
00:12 and toothless.
00:13 So are they going to be able to prove their detractors wrong at today's meeting?
00:19 They're going to try to put a brave face on what are inevitable and long-standing divisions
00:26 among them.
00:27 The ASEAN group, Annette, we have to remember its origins, it came about in the Cold War,
00:32 1967, and its principles or perhaps its founding principles are its worst enemy, i.e. it's
00:39 non-aligned, meaning it's impartial, doesn't take sides.
00:43 All of its decision-making has to be consensual.
00:46 That means all 10 members have to agree.
00:48 One doesn't agree, they're out.
00:49 And non-interference in any of the other members' affairs.
00:52 I want to show you why that's so difficult, given the issues you just mentioned.
00:55 Could we bring up on the screen so our viewers can see, these are the 10 nations that are
01:00 members of ASEAN.
01:02 Some have joined over the years since 1967.
01:05 You could see a few problems there.
01:06 What is that?
01:07 Myanmar is a member, right?
01:09 Myanmar's generals and leaders, to be clear, the military junta that seized power in 2021
01:15 and has had a violent crackdown on dissent ever since, they're not invited to this summit.
01:20 And one of the big issues here is what happens in 2026 when Myanmar is supposed to take over
01:25 the rotating presidency.
01:27 Well, so far it's expected perhaps the Philippines is going to stand in.
01:30 They're not giving the official reason, but it will stand in.
01:33 But you could see what's happening here is you have autocratic monarchies in there, plus
01:37 you have some democracies.
01:39 Countries such as, say, Cambodia, Laos, which I think I'm covering up there on the screen.
01:44 Laos, they are allies right now of the regime.
01:48 Well, of the regime in Myanmar.
01:50 They've at least spoken to the military junta there.
01:52 Others will not speak to them at all.
01:54 Thailand, meanwhile, has been holding talks with both Aung San Suu Kyi, the deposed military
01:59 democratically elected leaders, allies, and with the military junta.
02:03 With Myanmar, I think the best they are going to be to do is find words, nice words about
02:09 this so-called five point peace plan that they first broached after the coup in 2021.
02:15 It's come to naught so far, but at least they'll pay lip service to it.
02:18 On China, this South China Summit issue, Annette, it's a big deal because on the eve of this
02:23 summit, China released a new national map, which was provocative to say the least, because
02:28 it basically claims almost sovereignty over the entirety of the South China Sea, which
02:33 flies in the face of demands by Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia.
02:37 This is an issue that's going to be resolved at this summit and not even after this summit.
02:41 They're trying to arrive at a quote, code of conduct for the South China Sea by 2026.
02:47 Given the countries I just showed on that screen, I would not, if I were a betting man,
02:51 I would not put a lot of money on them on this code of conduct really coming to fruition
02:55 and really being able to work in practice.
02:58 But a notable absentee is, of course, the US President Joe Biden.
03:03 How significant is that, Doug?
03:06 It's significant to the extent that it feeds this perception that ASEAN has declining influence,
03:12 as you said, irrelevant, the quote toothless talking shop that critics call it.
03:17 But let's be clear here.
03:18 Joe Biden isn't really snubbing ASEAN.
03:22 He is attending the Group of 20 summit in India.
03:24 Afterwards, he's flying on to Vietnam to try to enhance US relations, troubled relations,
03:29 obviously, with that country for many decades.
03:32 He's been very present at past ASEAN summits.
03:34 He was in November 2020, 2022, just last year, he was in Cambodia for the summit.
03:40 Before that, in May of last year, he hosted several members of the ASEAN group at the
03:45 White House.
03:47 The White House would say when you say he's snubbing the ASEAN, they would say the White
03:51 House has a remarkable track record in showing its engagement in this region.
03:56 This is because the president of the US is a busy man.
03:59 Yeah, you have to pick and choose.
04:01 It's not because ASEAN isn't important.
04:03 It's simply because he doesn't have time right now and he is still engaged in the region.
04:07 Douglas Herbert, thank you.