00:00 Harry Kane has, according to a number of different outlets in both England and in Germany, agreed
00:08 a deal to join Bundesliga champions Bayern Munich this summer.
00:12 While that's a sentence that would, understandably, alarm any Tottenham fans watching, in reality
00:17 it doesn't actually mean much in this day and age.
00:20 What previously used to be called "tapping up" is now just a standard practice of agents
00:24 acting on behalf of players, getting transfers provisionally smoothed out before clubs even
00:29 begin to discuss a fee.
00:31 It's weird, yeah, and it maybe warrants a video all of its own, but it's just the way
00:34 things go these days.
00:36 In fact, in all likelihood, Harry Kane will have "agreed a deal" to join a number of
00:41 clubs this summer.
00:42 Manchester United have been frequently linked, Real Madrid have long held an interest, and
00:46 even PSG were reportedly in touch in case Kylian Mbappe's own protracted exit jumped
00:51 forward a season.
00:52 But of course, none of that matters one little bit unless Tottenham are prepared to accept
00:57 an offer for him.
00:58 But what it does tell us is that regardless of whether or not he does leave, Harry Kane
01:03 certainly wants to.
01:05 Nearly 12 years exactly since he made his Spurs debut in a Europa League match against
01:10 Hearts, his is now apparently set on departing the club.
01:14 And this leaves them with an enormous decision to make.
01:18 This is why Tottenham shouldn't sell Harry Kane this summer.
01:22 I'll keep this summation short for the sake of the Spurs fans who've heard it a hundred
01:25 times by now.
01:26 They can either allow their captain, talisman and all-time leading goalscorer to leave on
01:31 a free next summer, or they can actively pursue a sale for him now in the hope they can get
01:36 something approaching his market value.
01:39 Whether this is a decision for Daniel Levy, Ange Postacoglou or both, it's one that
01:43 needs to be made urgently.
01:44 But with neither option being even remotely appealing, how do you make it?
01:49 Well, weirdly, a quick glance at the recent history of Kane's most likely suitors gives
01:53 them a very pertinent case study.
01:56 Wind back the clock a decade and let's relive Robert Lewandowski's departure from Borussia
02:01 Dortmund.
02:02 After firing them to an astonishing league and cup double under Jurgen Klopp in 2012,
02:07 it became apparent the following season that their star player, Robert Lewandowski, wasn't
02:11 interested in extending his deal.
02:14 Such was the predictable circus that followed in German football that the club even felt
02:17 compelled to publicly inform their fans of this inevitability in 2013, over a year before
02:24 he actually departed.
02:26 In truly dramatic fashion, this statement came immediately after Dortmund thrashed Real
02:30 Madrid 4-1 in a Champions League semi-final, and just in case you're in any doubt about
02:35 how important to Dortmund he was back then, Lewandowski scored all four of the goals.
02:41 But lo, a few months later, with 12 months still to go on his deal, arch-rivals Bayern
02:46 Munich came calling, with a perfectly reasonable offer for him and what they thought was a
02:51 trump card.
02:52 "Take this transfer fee," they told Dortmund, "as he's agreed to join us anyway when
02:56 his contract's up, and you'll lose him for nothing."
03:00 Dortmund considered this proposal, and then told them to f*** off.
03:03 The reasons for this were twofold.
03:06 First of all, Bayern had already decimated this Dortmund team by activating Mario Goertz's
03:10 release clause earlier that season.
03:12 While it would have left Dortmund with an enormous transfer war chest that summer, the
03:16 idea of losing their two most important players in one window to the same team was seen as
03:21 far too damaging to both the club's ambitions and its pride.
03:25 Had another club come in with a similar offer, it's possible they would have sanctioned
03:29 the deal, but Bayern?
03:30 Oh no.
03:32 Denying them the best striker in the league, even for a year, was arguably as much of a
03:36 win for Dortmund as the Champions League final had been a loss.
03:40 But beyond this simply being an off-field point of principle, there was also an overriding
03:44 footballing reason for them cutting off their proverbial Nasr, despite their proverbial
03:48 gesicht.
03:49 The Bundesliga then, not unlike the Premier League now, was very tight at the top.
03:54 The year after winning the league, Dortmund slipped back 25 points behind Bayern into
03:58 second but were only one point ahead of a resurgent Leverkusen in third.
04:03 Both of them crucially were run close into Germany's three automatic Champions League
04:07 spots by Schalke, Frankfurt and Freiburg.
04:11 Schalke actually doing the double over them that season, with 2-1 wins both home and away.
04:16 The margin for error was already small but likely to be even smaller next season, with
04:21 the teams around them not losing their best players to the league champions.
04:26 Dortmund reasoned thusly.
04:28 One way or another they were about to enter a major period of upheaval by losing their
04:32 biggest goal threat.
04:34 Having it thrust upon them right now might give them a quick cash injection, but that
04:38 was ultimately wiped out entirely if it resulted in their dropping out of the Champions League.
04:43 Now that may well happen regardless when Lewandowski does leave, but they've at least then got
04:47 a year to start gently weaning the team off their tactical reliance upon him and bedding
04:52 in any replacements.
04:53 And that's precisely what they did.
04:56 A young Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, who crucially was equally capable as a number 9 and a left-sided
05:01 attacker, arrived for a modest €30m.
05:05 Dortmund improved on last season's number of points and goals, retained their Champions
05:09 League spot, and began planning for life after Lua in the wake of a season where he'd been
05:13 the club's top scorer by 4 goals, not the staggering 17 of the year before.
05:19 Now granted Dortmund did then plummet to 7th in the next campaign as Jurgen Klopp joined
05:24 Lewandowski in leaving the club, but they bounced back to 2nd the season after, Aubameyang
05:29 hitting an incredible stride to bag 39 goals in the process, and haven't been out of the
05:34 Champions League spot since.
05:36 Basically they waived the fee they could have gotten for a want-away star and spent the
05:40 time remaining on his contract instead to succession plan far more effectively.
05:45 Tottenham's situation is obviously very different.
05:48 They've already tumbled out of the promised land of the top 4 and don't have anything
05:52 by way of a league place to try and hold onto.
05:55 But that arguably makes the Dortmund example that much more important.
05:59 Whether it's this summer or next, Tottenham are going to have to plan for life after Harry
06:04 Kane and they're almost certainly going to suffer for that loss before the green shoots
06:08 of a new era begin to bud.
06:10 If they take that hit right now, then barring a miracle of recruitment and a new manager
06:14 waving a squad-wide magic wand, they're more likely to drop below last season's 8th placed
06:20 finish than they are to close the gap to Liverpool or Newcastle while still holding off a presumably
06:25 resurgent Chelsea.
06:27 But Arj Postakoglu is a manager with well-defined, competitive and adaptable footballing philosophies
06:33 who doesn't need the most expensive players on the planet to make that work.
06:37 What modest business he does do this summer will almost certainly improve the team, make
06:42 them harder to beat and reduce the reliance on Kane to contribute such a staggering proportion
06:47 of their goals, scoring or assisting nearly half of them last season.
06:51 Thus Tottenham, with Kane in the team next season, will improve and any team with a 30-goaler
06:57 season striker in it will always be in the conversation for a top-four finish.
07:01 It's a big ask at this stage, sure, but Spurs, playing without the burden of any European
07:06 football next season, will have a chance of getting back to that level if they hold onto
07:11 their captain this summer.
07:13 Without him, though, it's virtually impossible.
07:16 The reported ÂŁ80m+ that's sitting on the table to let him leave now will offset last
07:21 season's failures, sure, and make a potential repeat of that disappointment this season
07:25 taste less bitter on the way down, but they need to apply the Dortmund logic here.
07:30 One way or another, they're about to enter a major period of upheaval as they lose their
07:34 biggest goal threat.
07:36 Having it thrust upon them right now might give them a quick cash injection, but it's
07:39 wiped out entirely if they can't get back into the Champions League in the next few
07:44 years.
07:45 Keep Kane, give yourself the best possible chance of doing that this season, and allow
07:49 a new manager to start gently weaning the team off their reliance upon one man while
07:55 bedding in any replacements.
07:57 After all, getting a brand new Serco e-mobile to come in and be a like-for-like replacement
08:01 for Lewandowski was an enormous failure, but getting a settled Aubameyang to step up and
08:06 replace his goals was an enormous success.
08:09 Likewise, Kane, for all he's done for the club in his time there, can then leave with
08:13 his head held high if his final season puts them in a position to adequately replace him.
08:18 Rather than the desperate summer shopping they'll need to do now, with clubs all too
08:22 aware of a) how much money they have to spend, and b) how desperately they need to spend
08:27 it.
08:28 And of course, for a story that's ultimately all about silverware, none of this is even
08:32 to mention what a season free of the fixture congestion that accompanies European football
08:36 could do for Tottenham, and Kane's chances of progressing in the domestic cups.
08:42 But regardless of whether Kane stays or goes, Tottenham already have a rebuilding job to
08:46 do this summer.
08:47 Whatever it is they're going to decide, they need to decide it soon.
08:51 [BLANK_AUDIO]
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