00:00 Let's talk about the over under 54 and a half guys.
00:02 So I mentioned earlier in the show, I would take the under if it's probably a
00:06 stay away line anyway, but if I was to bet it, I would take the under and I want
00:10 to be very clear in saying that that's not because I believe the Celtics are
00:14 going to be a bad team or they're going to underachieve.
00:17 They're going to fall short in the playoffs.
00:18 They can't win a title any of that.
00:20 I would simply go under meaning they're going to win somewhere in the 50 to 54
00:25 range.
00:26 I still don't see sub 50 happening, but 50 in the 54 range.
00:30 Because I just think they're going to be uber conscious of who they are and
00:35 what they are and they're not going to force it.
00:37 They're not going to care about their seed.
00:39 They're not going to chase number one.
00:41 They're not going to, you know, it's home court isn't going to be an end all
00:45 be all.
00:45 They are going to look at their personnel and say, you know, Chris
00:50 Astor's needs to be managed.
00:52 We haven't even gotten into the plantar fasciitis yet.
00:55 We will.
00:55 He needs to be managed.
00:57 Al Horford needs to be managed for his age.
00:59 Malcolm Brogdon coming off the injury needs to be managed.
01:03 Rob Williams needs to be managed like there's and that doesn't mean
01:08 specifically load management.
01:09 Maybe it there's a percentage of games that guys miss and like Porzingis get
01:15 the duck boats ready if he even plays in 60 games, but we're talking about,
01:19 you know, it's more minutes being managed when I say that and I think you
01:24 need to be conscious not conservative but conscious of the Jays minutes as
01:29 well.
01:30 So this team coming in sub 55 wins is super realistic to me and I would be
01:36 more inclined Barrett to go in that direction than I would be to say
01:39 they're going to win 55 plus CLNS media network is powered by FanDuel
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01:56 Yeah, it's good.
01:57 It's a good line.
01:58 That's why they have casinos in Vegas.
02:00 I would say I would go over.
02:02 I just think that this team is going to be way better offensively, even
02:06 though they had one of the best offenses in the league.
02:08 I think they're going to score easier right because of the fact that and I
02:11 know like the whole thing with Porzingis, but I just think about the
02:14 matchups you can use like if it was me and I look at what I'm doing a
02:18 fun Missoula, I would basically have and I chatted with Michael peanut
02:22 about this a couple of weeks ago.
02:23 I would have Jalen and Porzingis on the court together because we know
02:28 that Jalen has issues at times with his ball handling Porzingis is a
02:32 floor spacer.
02:33 He can be a role man as well.
02:34 It just makes the read so much easier for Jalen when he's handling the
02:37 ball.
02:38 So I would have those two guys on the court together and then I would
02:41 have Tatum playing the minutes with Rob where we know Tatum and Rob.
02:44 I mean look at the impact metrics with those two guys on the court
02:47 together the past couple of years.
02:48 So I think when you're talking about the non-tata minutes that have been
02:52 an issue over the past couple of years.
02:54 This should be your best chance to actually have those be good and you
02:58 look at Porzingis last year.
03:00 He was through the roof in the impact metrics and it's not like he had a
03:02 lot of good teammates when he was playing with the Washington Wizards,
03:06 right?
03:06 So I just think that from and this is a situation that we ask questions
03:11 about during the playoffs for the past years.
03:14 What are they doing with Tatum is off the court.
03:16 I think that Joe Mazzola and that coaching staff should be able to come
03:19 up with lineups that really you can play actually play well with Tatum's
03:24 off the court.
03:25 And I actually think you can even keep Derek White on the court with
03:28 Jalen and Porzingis as well because what we've seen with Tatum, it really
03:31 doesn't matter who plays with them.
03:32 Like he's always when he's on the court.
03:34 They're always going to have a good offensive rating.
03:36 If you have Rob out there with him and I'd like him to play more minutes
03:40 with Pritchard to this season.
03:41 I it's weird like two years ago.
03:43 There are numbers with Pritchard on the court.
03:45 They actually played at a slower pace, which I thought was really weird, but
03:49 his most used lineups.
03:50 He had Al Horford in there and a second most used lineups.
03:54 He had Daniel Tyson there like Pritchard.
03:55 One of the things I when I watch him, I'm like it doesn't match up with the
03:58 numbers because he's always pushing the basketball, right?
04:01 So I think with Pritchard out there too, you can play at a faster pace.
04:03 So that's why I'd go over just because I think that they're going to get
04:06 back a they're going to get back to their defensive identity, even though
04:09 smart is out of the equation that's certainly needs to be emphasized more
04:13 despite them being number two in the league.
04:15 We saw in the playoffs.
04:15 They certainly did not play like the number two defense in the league, but
04:19 the other portion of it.
04:19 I think offensively they are more talented from a personnel perspective,
04:24 even if they have less rotate capable rotation players.
04:28 They have more offensive firepower.
04:30 Yeah, the lack of this though the lack of talent in that conference like a lot
04:36 of talent moved the other conference like what teams really scared.
04:39 I mean, obviously there's schedule losses and what in there.
04:42 You're not going to get that.
04:43 Well, you're also not only playing the East.
04:45 I mean you are seeing the West, but you're playing the majority of your games
04:49 against your conference, right?
04:50 You're playing the majority of your games against a division that I mean,
04:54 look the Knicks are the Knicks gave this Alex all they can handle last year.
04:58 That's not saying that they're the Knicks are a bad opponent.
05:01 The Knicks in the suffix.
05:02 I think are in two different tiers, right?
05:05 The Nets are kind of a wild card in here.
05:08 Like I like a lot of the guys in their team, but does it make a lot of sense?
05:12 I mean the Raptors are.
05:15 Come on, like their own divisions.
05:17 Not great.
05:18 If you go to the rest of the conference, it's not tremendous.
05:20 Like they're going to get a lot of easy wins potentially if they just stay healthy.
05:25 Never mind that look at what about the last year makes you think Miami is going to go crazy
05:29 for the number one seed this year?
05:32 Not going to happen.
05:34 Look at the Bucks.
05:35 Yeah, they could be tougher though.
05:37 Just I mean because the whole Lillard things out there,
05:39 but I'm with you for the most part.
05:40 I agree with what you're saying.
05:41 The Bucks is as much as we care about the Celtics health problems,
05:44 which is definitely something they should be aware of.
05:45 The Bucks have also health problems like Brooke Lopez is super old.
05:48 Chris Middleton hasn't looked the same since that injury.
05:51 I mean, I like Drew Holiday,
05:53 but a lot of times Drew Holiday goes for like five for 17 from the floor.
05:57 Like I don't think it's like a super tough conference for Boston to rack up wins in.
06:03 I think the knowing the injury thing.
06:05 Yeah, sure.
06:06 They're going to manage guys down the stretch,
06:08 but I still think that over is possible pending some injury look and.
06:13 Of course it's possible.
06:14 I just don't you know, it's the one thing I didn't say before but implied.
06:18 I don't think that they're definitely to to Brian's point.
06:22 They are absolutely more top-heavy than they were last year.
06:25 There was more talent, you know in the operational of this team.
06:28 I I'm concerned.
06:30 They're not as deep as they were last year for when injuries do happen
06:33 and they're going to happen.
06:35 Yeah, the one thing that they do benefit from is two of their best three players.
06:41 I guess two of their best four players are never hurt
06:44 and knock on wood that that doesn't happen but Tatum I'd say for you.
06:48 Yeah. Well you say who you put else in there Jalen Jalen white Tatum.
06:53 Yeah, I was going to say white and Tatum like Jalen's had his issues,
06:56 but you're right for the most part. He stays healthy.
06:58 But Tatum we mentioned earlier the Charlotte thing like he he plays in every game
07:02 and Derek White literally plays in every game.
07:04 He played in 82 games last season.
07:06 He legitimately plays in every game.
07:09 So yeah, when you have those two guys are going to play most of the games Derek White.
07:13 I'm sure is going to want to do it again where he plays every game next season.
07:17 I think it's just really beneficial.
07:18 And the other thing I would say too is one of the things last year
07:22 that they went to not as much as I would have liked them to go to
07:27 and part of that is because Marcus smart was on the team
07:30 and this is not me taking a shot at Marcus,
07:32 but the numbers with Derek White at the point guard position last season
07:35 when he actually played point guard via cleaning the glass 21% of his minutes only 21%.
07:41 So about a fifth of his minutes the Celtics and in those minutes 121.9 offensive rating 93rd percentile
07:48 106.2 defensive rating 96 percentile plus 15.7 net rating 99th percentile
07:56 because he's the smallest guy in the court,
07:58 but he's also an all NBA defender.
08:00 You have these big wings around him.
08:02 You can play double big.
08:04 So just getting more Derek White minutes in terms of at the point guard position
08:07 and to something we mentioned earlier with Marcus smart everybody put the blame on him.
08:11 The one thing I will say is Derek White.
08:13 I mean we had these conversations.
08:15 He should have got more fourth quarter minutes.
08:17 There's no reason that you had both Marcus smart
08:20 and Brogdon average more fourth quarter minutes than Derek White last season.
08:25 He was unequivocally the Celtics third best player.
08:28 You could make an argument from an impact metric standpoint.
08:30 He was their second best player.
08:32 He should have been on the court in the fourth quarter.
08:34 So I think having that lineup out there with white and with Tatum
08:37 and with Brown at the end of these games,
08:39 they're going to be much better closing out games
08:41 and I know their record was fine in clutch games last season,
08:44 but they're going to be better when it comes to execution late in games.
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09:04 [Music]
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