00:00 Hello and welcome to BQ Prime. A very good afternoon to all the viewers. I'm Hiral Dhadia.
00:04 Clearly, if you go to see in terms of markets, we are on an upward journey in today's session.
00:08 We did hit the 19.425 mark but retraced below for 19.400 levels already in trade today. Let's
00:17 understand what the setup is looking like from here on. Ruchit Jain joins in to discuss more.
00:23 Ruchit, overall, you know, what's the sense that you're picking up? Because clearly,
00:29 there is negativity in the markets but the underlying tone, there is still that positivity
00:35 that still entails. Yes, hi, very good afternoon, Nageera. Well, last few weeks, in fact, last
00:43 three weeks, we have seen the markets have corrected from that high of almost 20,000 levels
00:47 which we tested. But if you look at the market breadth, then the overall market breadth has not
00:53 been that bad, what we have seen before the month of March. So, this really indicates that the
00:58 broader trend for the market is still up. A lot of stock specific buying interest is there in this
01:02 corrective phase too. And hence, this down move just seems to be a corrective phase within an
01:07 uptrend. Now, the prime reason for this correction was the lack of buying by FIIs. If you look at
01:12 last four months, in the month of April, May, June, and July, FIIs were continuously buyers in
01:17 all these four months in the cash segment. And in this month, they have not only refrained from
01:24 buying, but they have been net sellers to the tune of about 10,000 crores. So, I think that was the
01:29 main reason why we have seen some underperformance or this corrective phase in our markets. In the
01:34 index futures segment too, their long-shot ratio was below 40% as on Thursday. But on Friday,
01:40 we witnessed some short covering by them, where their long-shot ratio is now improved to 42%.
01:45 In today's trading session, if you look at the option segment right from the start of the day,
01:50 19,300 put option have been witnessing an addition. So, this is an indication that the
01:56 downside in the markets for now seems to be limited because put writers are active. This
02:01 is just a corrective phase within an uptrend. Broader market momentum is still on the positive
02:05 side. So, we expect that once this some consolidation is over, market would resume
02:11 the uptrend quite soon. So, 19,300, 19,250 is a very strong support range for the market and that
02:16 is holding. So, I think the biasness would remain a bit on the positive side. But of course, until
02:21 we see FIs coming in with the buying figures, we don't expect very sharp up move the way we have
02:27 witnessed in last 3 or 4 months. And how are you looking at Bank Nifty?
02:31 Because there is a clear tussle between call and put writers at 44,000 zone. From there on,
02:39 what direction are you expecting Bank Nifty to take?
02:44 So, today, yes, in the options data, both 44,000 call as well as 44,000 put option has witnessed
02:50 very high opening this edition. So, we have an indication that option writers are expecting the
02:56 banking index to stay within the range. And if you look at the total premium since morning,
03:00 it was around 400, 380 points. So, plus 400 minus 400 is the range that option writers are expecting
03:09 Bank Nifty to stay till this Thursday's expiry. As far as levels are concerned, we believe that
03:14 44,200 would be the important hurdle. Now, once that is crossed, then we should expect some
03:19 resumption of the momentum in the banking index. Otherwise, some sideways move or consolidation
03:24 is expected in Bank Nifty for another day or two.
03:26 Okay. Moving to stock specific action. Overall, let's look at Reliance, Voltas and BPCL.
03:36 All these three stocks are seeing a short buildup in trade today. What should the strategy be?
03:40 So, we don't expect any much price-based correction in all the three names. Reliance
03:46 Industries primarily has been witnessing some consolidation for the demerger activity which we
03:51 saw. But right now, the stock has been consolidating the range of 24, 50 to 25,
03:56 150, 25, 70 on the higher side. So, we expect this range bound move to continue in Reliance.
04:01 But once the stock gives a breakout above that 25, 70 or 26, 100, I think then there will be
04:07 signs of a resumption of uptrend. So, if one is holding any existing long positions, I would
04:11 advise to continue to hold on longs. But fresh mind should be done maybe on a breakout above 25,
04:16 170. Ideally, that would be the level where this consolidation breakout would come.
04:21 Now, Voltas, both Voltas and BPCL, I would say that price-based correction has been done.
04:27 In Voltas, we have witnessed good pullback more recently from 740 to almost 850 in which volumes
04:34 were good. So, usually, whenever we see price up moves supported by good volumes, then I think
04:40 there are the signs that buyers are quite interested in this name. So, Voltas also downside
04:45 seems to be done. The price-based correction seems to be done. Maybe some time-based correction
04:49 could be seen where the consolidation would be there in near term. And BPCL also, I think
04:54 mostly the stock has already corrected from its high. If you look at some historical data,
04:58 then a swing low support is placed around this 350-340 range only. So, this 350-340
05:04 is a good support range for the stock for any pullback move to come in the near term.
05:07 How are you looking at Bajaj Finance? Because that is giving you a bullish setup in trade today.
05:14 Yes. So, here we are witnessing a bullish engulfing pattern on the daily chart which
05:20 has been formed today. And such pattern after a correction certainly is a positive sign.
05:25 So, we can expect some up move on the near term towards 7300-7350. And today's low,
05:30 which is around 6800, which would be seen as a very crucial support. So, I think with the
05:36 stop-loss below that 6800 mark, it is better to hold on to long positions for a pullback move,
05:40 considering the stock has formed a bullish pattern on the daily charts today.
05:44 Okay. NFDC is seeing some long positions being built in today's session.
05:50 Strong open interest addition as well. What's your view?
05:54 We are positive on the stock, but we are looking at the stock more from a bit medium-term
05:59 perspective. It's a slow mover and what we are witnessing is many of the metal names off late,
06:03 except some stocks such as Zinda Steel or JSW Steel. Not much momentum has been seen in the
06:10 metal names, primarily because of the volatility that we are seeing in the dollar index as well.
06:14 But NMDC, I think a slow and gradual up move could be expected from year on because the stock has
06:19 started forming this high top-high bottom on the daily chart after a long period of corrective
06:23 phase. And the volumes also in the last few days have been increasing gradually. So, positionally,
06:28 one can expect targets around 127 first followed by 134. But as I said, one should not look this
06:34 from a very short-term perspective. But in case if you can hold it for next two or three months,
06:38 then I think the stock certainly looks a buy at current levels too.
06:42 Right. Ruchit, what about power companies like NTPC,
06:45 Tata Power, BHEL, all of these are also seeing some good OI addition and long build-ups being seen?
06:52 So, in fact, power names have done well in last three to four months along with the price up move.
06:58 Now, this month when we have seen that the markets have corrected, they have gone into some
07:02 consolidation phase. But there is no selling scene where the corrections have not been backed by any
07:07 kind of higher volumes. Whether you take it to NTPC or even BHEL, we have seen that high top-high
07:13 bottom structure getting continued. So, I think that Tata Power just to add that recent volumes
07:18 are quite good. So, I think the downside seems to be very limited. Now, if the market resumes its
07:23 broader uptrend, so I think some sort of consolidation could be there. But once the
07:28 market resumes the momentum, then I think the power stocks would definitely go up along with
07:33 the market moves. Right. How are you looking at IDFC first?
07:38 So, selective buying has been seen in the banking names in spite of banking
07:44 bank nifty index correcting and IDFC first has been one stock which irrespective of momentum
07:49 in the broader markets or this bank nifty correction which we have seen, this stock has
07:52 not shown correction. So, this is the relative outperformance which is generally seen in the
07:57 stocks where strong buying interest is seen. So, the trend for the stock still remains positive.
08:02 Now, the support base, short-term support base has been shifted to 84-83 range. So, ideally,
08:07 if anyone is holding positions in IDFC first bank, they should continue to ride this trend
08:11 and one can keep a stop-loss below 83 on non-positions. Right. I know it's too early to
08:16 ask for a Jio financial services, but being day one, how is it looking like?
08:22 So, very difficult to look at first day itself, being a technical analyst, of course, there are
08:28 no historical data. But I think market participants would definitely want to see the whole of what
08:34 would happen rather than just one day of activity in the stock. So, I think next one week maybe I
08:39 think would be crucial for the stock to see whether at lower levels, we see any buying interest or not
08:44 in Jio Finance. Right. Adaniports and Adani Enterprises, both these counters have been
08:50 doing pretty well in the last two trading sessions. What should the strategy be according to you?
08:56 So, I think we have already seen a good amount of volatility in many of the Adani names recently
09:01 based on many of the news flows that we all know. But off late, some stability has been seen. We
09:07 are witnessing good price volumization, some stocks are witnessing good volumes from the Adani group
09:11 names. You take Adani Power, Adani Ports. So, I think these are the names which going ahead
09:16 could now again start giving good returns. Of course, one should not expect the kind of
09:21 returns that this stock had shown earlier a couple of years back. But the short-term trend
09:27 remains positive, especially on Adani Ports because what we have seen that in spite of recent some of
09:31 the negative news flows, the stock witnessed buying interest in minor dips and the volumes in last
09:37 three-four trading sessions are quite good along with the price up move. So, maybe from a trading
09:41 perspective, ADT 9100 levels could be expected. But if one is looking from a medium-term perspective,
09:47 then I think the stock has a great potential to go in the four-figure market again.
09:50 Right. Ruchit, apart from the names that we have discussed, anything else that comes to your radar
09:55 that one should look at from this expiry perspective? I think cement space one should have a
10:01 watch on because the cement stocks have witnessed good long melt-up in this series. And some of the
10:05 cement stocks such as Grasim is spreading around its support, Emco Cements is spreading around its
10:09 support. We witnessed an off-weight correction in Dalmia Bharat Cement too, where the stock has now
10:15 again started showing some positive momentum from its support. So, I think these stocks have
10:20 witnessed a good corrective phase in last one or two months. Now, the downside seems to be very
10:24 limited. So, maybe if we see an uptick in the markets in the later half towards the expiry,
10:29 then cement stocks would be one space where one can expect some positive moves.
10:32 Right. So, that should be a space that one should be watching out for. Thank you,
10:37 Ruchit, so much for joining us on the show and telling us clearly some bit of positivity that
10:42 has creeped in in today's session. We are almost near the day's highest levels, but we've seen a
10:49 substantial up move that's coming from the day's low as well. The advance-decline ratio pretty much
10:53 in favour of the bulls. And you have names like Adani Ports, Bajaj Finance, PowerGrid, Adani
10:58 Enterprises, as well as Hintalco, which are the top gainers. Whereas, on the losing end,
11:03 it's interesting to see how Jio Financial Services is locked in lower circuit, a downtick of 5%.
11:07 Reliance is also trading under pressure, M&M Britannia and BPCL. These are a few of the top
11:12 losers as well. So, if you see in terms of Bank Nifty overall, pretty much not outperforming the
11:18 benchmark indices, but it's maintained levels of around 44,000. There has been a tug of war between
11:23 the call and the put writers at 44,000 strike as well in today's session. Overall, in terms of
11:29 broader markets as well, names like Trident, JBM Auto, Data Pattern, these are a few of the top
11:36 gainers, seeing gains upwards of 10% interest rate. Whereas, on the losing end, you have names
11:41 like Pirloska Engineering, Tanla, Iron Exchange are a few of the top losers as well. So, a lot
11:46 of stock-specific action that we've continued to see, but there is a slight bit of freedom that
11:50 has come in into the markets today. Whether this is sustainable and whether the uproar continues or
11:54 not is something that we need to wait and watch. That's all that we have in this session. Thanks
11:58 for watching and lots more lined up on BQ Private Institute.
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