00:00 And Michael Burry, Michael Burry may be the biggest story here in the last couple of days.
00:04 I mean, everybody talking about this.
00:06 I do some physical training there and I've got that guy there asking me about Michael
00:15 Burry.
00:16 He saw it in the news and everybody's covering it.
00:18 I mean, we go to the gym and they're talking about Michael Burry and he thinks the market's
00:22 going to crash because they all saw the big short.
00:25 So I think it actually spooked the market the last couple of days to see him buy all
00:29 those puts.
00:30 Apparently, 94% of his portfolio is in puts now on the cues and spy.
00:35 I mean, he's got a huge name in the media and he comes out with this big bearish call.
00:41 Do you think that this spooked some people and do you think Michael Burry is right in
00:45 this case or is he going to end up being wrong?
00:48 He's going to be wrong like Mike Wilson was wrong.
00:51 And if the market or the algos program to read headlines and parse, sure, it spooked
00:58 the algos, but I promise you that nobody on Reddit follows Michael Burry.
01:06 They're into their own world.
01:07 And to the extent that there are a lot of retail traders in the marketplace still and
01:11 more to come, there's always a Michael Burry out there, whether it's some bond guy or whether
01:20 it's Stan Drucker Miller at some point in time or Paul Tudor Jones.
01:26 And they're a lot smarter, by the way, than Michael Burry with a lot more of a track record.
01:30 I mean, he's a one trick pony as far as I'm concerned.
01:34 And I think, hey, look, let's put it into perspective.
01:38 Typically, you get a pullback of 5% two to three times a year, except in years like 2017
01:46 when you just go straight up with no pullbacks and the period here from March through July
01:53 31st where there were no 5% pullbacks or even 3%.
01:58 So we're in a seasonally weak period.
02:00 We normally expect some blowback in the market between September into early October.
02:07 We're getting it.
02:09 Let's not hand wring about it, but have a game plan.
02:12 And the game plan for me is first stop, 43.50 to 43.70, strong support at 43.00.
02:21 If you put up the bullish channel in the S&P, you struggled up at the top of the channel
02:27 at 46.00, got above it for a day or two.
02:31 The lower channel started the week at 42.00, but it's rising 50 points a month.
02:37 So by the end of September, that'll be at 43.00.
02:41 So you're at 42.10 right now.
02:45 And I think that channel is going to hold, which means we won't go down a full 10% if
02:50 that channel holds.
02:52 Full 10% would take you down 460 points to 41.40, which would be below that channel.
03:00 I don't think that's happening.
03:01 Yeah, the chart on the left shows you the channel.
03:03 Oh, that's a 15 minute.
03:05 Well, it's the same channel.
03:06 There you go.
03:07 Fractal markets.
03:08 Yeah, the daily.
03:09 But Mark, I'm looking at this one here.
03:13 And if you go off the March low and then you tag the May low, then you tag a couple lows
03:19 in May and you bring that thing up.
03:22 I mean, for me, that line's been broken.
03:25 We're going from the December low, Joel.
03:27 Going for the December low?
03:29 OK.
03:30 Yeah, you'll see it on the weekly channel or the monthly.
03:34 So it's a well-defined channel.
03:36 People are aware of it, whether it holds or not remains to be seen.
03:39 But that's my game plan.
03:41 I can start nibbling on industrials and energy down here, be much more inclined to buy tech
03:47 if we do get that pullback under 4,400, get a little bit of selling panic into this August
03:57 vacuum, and just have a game plan that says this is a bull market.
04:03 There are so many momentum signals that have triggered, including a recent one about industry
04:08 groups above their 200-day and 50-day averages that project out to very big targets.
04:16 So you've got to get over, I think, the short-term fixation on the bond market.
04:23 If the economy is so strong that the Fed feels the need to raise rates, then that's a good
04:31 thing for the cyclical sectors in the market.
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