مؤشر "بافيت" يهدد بإنهاء الحماس في "وول ستريت"
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00:00 Those who followed the US index in the first six months of this year
00:04 were following this optimism that we saw for investors.
00:09 More than 20% of profits on S&P 500,
00:13 more than 30% on the Nasdaq index,
00:17 and there is a balance in opinions towards the path of US stocks
00:21 in the second half of this year.
00:23 Those who focus on the Buffett Index or the Buffett Ratio
00:28 should be worried because this indicator predicts
00:32 that there will be a sharp decline in the US markets.
00:36 What is the Buffett Index?
00:38 How is it being used in terms of ratings?
00:42 And how do we predict the US stocks in the coming period?
00:48 This is the situation for S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq from the beginning of the year.
00:53 We saw some files in early August that had a negative impact on the stocks.
00:59 A low Fitch Fidelity Index for the US,
01:02 and the data of the job market, according to the ADP,
01:05 which came much higher than expected.
01:08 So, some things affected the stocks.
01:10 But even if we look at July, we had a noticeable performance
01:14 of 3% or more than 3% of Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq.
01:19 What is interesting is that the rally is no longer limited to the technology sector.
01:23 It has expanded and became a broad rally for the rest of the sectors.
01:27 These are the most prominent factors that contributed to the rise.
01:30 The most prominent was that the core PCE, the preferred indicator for the Fed's inflation rate,
01:36 had declined to its lowest level in the last two years,
01:40 in addition to what we call a dovish hike for the US Fed.
01:46 The US economy's fundamentals are strong.
01:49 The GDP in the second quarter rose 2.4%.
01:53 US consumer spending is at its highest level since the beginning of this year.
01:58 We have a decline in inflation rates.
02:01 The labor market is still good, and therefore the picture is positive,
02:05 if we exclude what is happening in the industrial sector, for example.
02:08 But overall, the investor was betting that the economy
02:12 would be able to achieve a soft landing and avoid a decline,
02:16 which is the idea that even the Federal Reserve insists on.
02:20 So what is happening? Why do we have these big fluctuations in expectations?
02:24 One of the most pessimistic investment banks in the rally that we saw previously
02:30 was Morgan Stanley.
02:32 From the beginning of this year, he hoped that the US stocks were ready for many refunds.
02:37 Those who followed Morgan Stanley's recommendation went out as losers,
02:42 because Morgan Stanley's recommendation was not correct.
02:46 Even Morgan Stanley and Michael Wilson in Morgan Stanley
02:49 admitted that they were wrong in their bets against the US stocks' rising.
02:55 If we look at Oppenheimer, they raised the target for the US stocks.