US Bank Increases Odds of a Recession in the Next Year. According to Bank of America, the chances of an economic downturn are now more than 30%. Our official model has the probability of a recession over the next 12 months only pegged at about 20%, but our subjective call based on the slew of data and events leads us to believe it is closer to a 1-in-3 chance, Bank of America’s head of U.S. economics Michelle Meyer, via statement. Recession fears have increased during the ongoing U.S.-China trade war and slowing business investment in America. A worldwide slowdown has contributed to falling interest rates in the U.S. as well. Meyer adds that there are a few economic indicators currently at levels where they were when previous recessions struck. They include auto sales and industrial production
