What History Has to Say About the ‘Winners’ in Trade Wars
- 6 years ago
What History Has to Say About the ‘Winners’ in Trade Wars
On the question of who wins, “the easy answer is to say
that no one wins a trade war,” said Marc-William Palen, a professor of history at the University of Exeter in Britain and the author of “The ‘Conspiracy’ of Free Trade,” which examines trade rivalry between the United States and the British Empire in the 19th century.
“France won in the sense that the trade war was brutal for the Italians,” said John Conybeare, emeritus
professor of political science at the University of Iowa, and the author of the book “Trade Wars.”
Professor Conybeare said an enduring lesson from that trade conflict was
that if there is a wide disparity in economic strength between two countries, the stronger country will probably prevail.
Much the same can be said of the United States steel industry, which since World War II
has probably received more protection from tariffs and quotas than any other industry.
With President Trump ordering steep new tariffs on imported steel and aluminum on Thursday, and with America’s trading partners threatening to retaliate, it looks as if Mr. Trump will get the trade war
that he seems to want and that he thinks will be “easy” for the United States to win.
The Smoot-Hawley tariffs, Professor Palen said, caused countries like Italy to abandon American imports
and resume trading with the Soviets, forging trade links that persist today.
A textbook case of one country’s “winning” a trade war occurred during the late 19th century when a newly
unified Italy imposed steep tariffs on imports from France in order to spur domestic industrialization.
On the question of who wins, “the easy answer is to say
that no one wins a trade war,” said Marc-William Palen, a professor of history at the University of Exeter in Britain and the author of “The ‘Conspiracy’ of Free Trade,” which examines trade rivalry between the United States and the British Empire in the 19th century.
“France won in the sense that the trade war was brutal for the Italians,” said John Conybeare, emeritus
professor of political science at the University of Iowa, and the author of the book “Trade Wars.”
Professor Conybeare said an enduring lesson from that trade conflict was
that if there is a wide disparity in economic strength between two countries, the stronger country will probably prevail.
Much the same can be said of the United States steel industry, which since World War II
has probably received more protection from tariffs and quotas than any other industry.
With President Trump ordering steep new tariffs on imported steel and aluminum on Thursday, and with America’s trading partners threatening to retaliate, it looks as if Mr. Trump will get the trade war
that he seems to want and that he thinks will be “easy” for the United States to win.
The Smoot-Hawley tariffs, Professor Palen said, caused countries like Italy to abandon American imports
and resume trading with the Soviets, forging trade links that persist today.
A textbook case of one country’s “winning” a trade war occurred during the late 19th century when a newly
unified Italy imposed steep tariffs on imports from France in order to spur domestic industrialization.