The European Leadership Network, a London-based think tank, has released a November report chronicling nearly 40 “close military encounters” between Russia and Europe over the past eight months, including “11 serious incidents of a more aggressive or unusually provocative nature, bringing a higher level risk of escalation.”
Three of the 40 incidents were categorised as high-risk, meaning they “carried a high probability of causing casualties or a direct military confrontation,” the authors of the report wrote.
The first of the three incidents took place on March 3, when an SAS Boeing 737 aircraft almost collided with a Russian reconnaissance aircraft near Malmo because the latter did not use its transponder to transmit its location.
A second high-risk incident occurred near the Estonian-Russian border on September 5. Smoke grenades were thrown in a wooded area where Estonian security official Eston Kohver was meeting an informant. He was then abducted by Russian agents and has been detained by Moscow over espionage allegations.
In October, after suspecting possible submarine activity by Russia near Stockholm, Sweden deployed boats, helicopters and about 200 troops in an unsuccessful bid to locate the Russian vessel.
The incidents occurred amid the backdrop of conflict between the West and Russia over Ukraine, where the pro-Western government in Kiev is in a shaky ceasefire agreement with Russian-backed separatists. On November 9 heavy shelling was witnessed in the pro-Russian rebel-controlled city of Donetsk.
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