00:00In the coming days, Congress will have the final say on the tax increase.
00:05to cigarettes and vapes in Colombia. Only one step remains to determine how much they will increase
00:11Those prices. Let the plenary sessions of the House and Senate reconcile the final text of the bill.
00:16This law has generated extensive debate. Before continuing, I'll comment on the news article to read.
00:21the full article.
00:22Therefore, as proposed, the specific tax on each pack of 20 units
00:28The price of cigarettes would increase from $4,446 to $7,800. This is less than what some organizations were requesting.
00:36from civil society, who believe a tax of $13,000 per pack is necessary, but more
00:41of what had initially been proposed, $5,100 per pack.
00:45For vapes and electronic cigarettes, the specific tax would be $1,000 per
00:50each milliliter of liquid.
00:52Those who oppose raising the tax on traditional cigarettes often present a
00:57Argument: That a higher tax on cigarettes encourages smuggling.
01:01This was stated by Andrés Forero, congressman of the Democratic Center, and David Barguil, of the
01:05The Conservative Party, in the last debate, and this is how influencers like
01:11Jerome Zanabria.
01:12But what does the evidence say about that assumption?
01:15To answer that, we spoke with researchers who have studied this phenomenon in America.
01:19Latina. For example, Guillermo Paraje, economist and director of Tabaconomía, a research center
01:26from the Adolfo Ibáñez University of Chile, and Paul Rodríguez Lesmes, economist and researcher
01:32from the University of Rosario.
01:33The first thing they all acknowledge is that cigarette smuggling exists; it is a
01:39This is a significant problem and poses a very serious threat to public health.
01:44However, there's a long way to go from there to saying that the cause is tobacco taxes.
01:50In a study published in November 2025, Parajes, Rodríguez and other researchers
01:55They analyzed the illicit cigarette trade in five Colombian cities. To do so,
02:01They collected and examined discarded cigarette packs, a methodology that allows them to identify which
02:07a proportion of the cigarettes consumed comes from the illegal market.
02:10The result was that 16.9% of the cigarettes found in the five cities were illicit.
02:17But behind that average there were enormous differences. In Bogotá the proportion was
02:226.6%, in Medellín 22%, in Cartagena 43% and in Cúcuta 73%.
02:30Let's focus on that last piece of data. Why does smuggling account for almost three-quarters?
02:37parts of cigarette consumption in Cúcuta, while in Bogotá it does not reach 7% if the
02:43Are taxes and the legal price of cigarettes the same in both cities?
02:48According to Rodríguez, from the University of Rosario, the explanation lies in economic dynamics.
02:53and trade in each territory. In some border areas, smuggling doesn't work.
02:58only around cigarettes. It's part of broader circles of illegal trade.
03:03where products such as gasoline and other goods are also moved.
03:07This, researchers say, helps explain why the price of cigarettes is not
03:14sufficient to explain where and to what extent illicit trade appears.
03:19International evidence also shows important differences. In 2023, Colombia had
03:25an illicit trade share of close to 17%, with a price per pack of around
03:32$1.80. Argentina in 2019 registered a proportion of 14% with a similar price. In contrast,
03:41Mexico had a higher price of about $2.65, but a share of the trade
03:48illicit activity is less than 8%. In other words, countries with similar prices can have similar levels of smuggling.
03:55very different. And countries with more expensive cigarettes don't necessarily have illegal markets.
04:01larger. So what does it take to combat smuggling?
04:07Researchers indicate that the answer lies in strengthening the State's control capacity.
04:15improve oversight, establish traceability systems that allow tracking each pack,
04:21from manufacturing to marketing, require licenses for those involved in the
04:27supply chain and strengthen cooperation between countries. In fact, the Protocol for
04:33The Elimination of Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products, promoted by the World Health Organization
04:39The Health sector establishes mechanisms for monitoring and controlling the supply chain.
04:45and international cooperation to combat illegal trade. Colombia signed that protocol,
04:51But he hasn't confirmed it. For researchers, there is no evidence to suggest that increasing
04:57Cigarette taxes do not, in themselves, cause an increase in smuggling. Instead,
05:04They say what the evidence does show is that illegal trade is due to multiple factors,
05:10These include institutional weaknesses, a lack of border controls, and the presence
05:15of criminal networks. Tobacco taxes have little or nothing to do with this, and they have
05:22proven to be a cost-effective measure to reduce the consumption of these products which are
05:28harmful to your health. If you want to know more about this and other topics, follow us at Healthy on
05:34all our social media networks.
05:53Thanks for watching the video.
