00:00Who is really winning the war in Iran?
00:02His supreme leader was killed on the very first day.
00:05Its ports are under American blockade.
00:07Its navy is largely sunk, according to Washington.
00:09On paper, Iran has lost the war.
00:11However, when you look at what each side wanted, it's more complicated than that.
00:15On February 28, the United States and Israel attacked Iran.
00:19From the outset, Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu announced two objectives.
00:231. To bring down the regime.
00:242. Iran must never have the atomic bomb.
00:27The attack is massive.
00:28Supreme leader Ali Rahmenei was killed on the first day
00:31and the Iranian navy is largely sunk.
00:34But 8 months later, the results are very mixed.
00:37First, the diet.
00:38Eight days after Rahmenei's death, his son replaced him.
00:41The regime is still standing, failed.
00:43Then the bomb.
00:44Iran still does not have it, but according to the IAEA, its enriched uranium is still in the country.
00:49Enough to make up to 10 bombs if it were enriched further.
00:52Goal still not achieved.
00:53For its part, Israel has gained ground in southern Lebanon against Hezbollah, Iran's Lebanese ally.
00:59But besides that, Washington is losing a lot.
01:01On November 3, Trump's party lost the midterm elections that renew Congress.
01:06His own vice-president blames the war in Iran.
01:08Yeah, you could really say it's a failure.
01:10And in Israel, Netanyahu's camp won 53 out of 120 seats in the elections.
01:15whereas it takes 61 to govern.
01:17It is his rival who is garnering the most support to form the government.
01:20Okay, so things aren't really going well on the American and Israeli side.
01:23But what about Iran then?
01:25In April, he formulated his demands in a 10-point plan.
01:28Two are central.
01:291. Maintain its nuclear program.
01:312. Maintain control of the Strait of Hormuz.
01:33Regarding nuclear power, Iran has kept its uranium and refuses to hand it over.
01:37But his right to enrich it is still not recognized.
01:39You could say it's a partial success.
01:41As for Hormuz, Iran has been blocking it since the beginning of the war.
01:44The result was the biggest oil supply disruption in history.
01:48Well, in this case, we can say that it's been reached.
01:49The only problem is that Hormuz has not yet brought about the lifting of sanctions that are hindering the sale of its oil.
01:551.5 out of 2 for Iran, compared to 0 for Israel and the US.
01:58And that's understandable, it's an asymmetric war between two very unequal sides.
02:03In an asymmetric war, the weaker side does not need to win.
02:05He just needs to hold on, even if it costs a lot.
02:08In fact, I made a video about it on my account, feel free to check it out.
02:11Currently, negotiations are being conducted through Qatar.
02:14Iran is offering to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the lifting of sanctions and the end of the blockade.
02:18Eight months later, Iran has not lost.
02:20And in an asymmetric war, that means that for now, he's the one winning.
