00:00Polls open across the US and we could get the first indication of the midterm's results by tomorrow morning.
00:06There are plenty of numbers to follow, from opinion polls to seats won and lost.
00:11But what do they tell us about who holds power in Washington
00:14and what US President Donald Trump can do over the next two years?
00:19Tonight, we look at the possible outcomes and what each would change.
00:23First, where things stand.
00:25Republicans hold the House 218 to 214 and the Senate 53 to 47, controlling both the House.
00:33Democrats need a net gain of four seats to flip either chamber,
00:37polling points to a more favourable picture for Democrats in the House,
00:40while the Senate right now is too close to call.
00:43With Trump's approval near the lowest of his presidency, the mood is of course with the Democrats.
00:49However, the catch here runs through every scenario.
00:53Whoever wins, Trump keeps his veto and his executive powers as President.
00:58So four scenarios, as you can see here, Democrats win the House,
01:03Democrats take the House but Senate is left 50-50,
01:08Democratic sweep of both House and as well Senate,
01:12or the final possible outcome, Republicans hold on to everything.
01:16So let's look at the first scenario.
01:19Democrats win the House but not the Senate.
01:21Winning the House with a small majority gets them committees and subpoena power.
01:26But remember, a Justice Department led by a Trump appointee is unlikely to enforce those subpoenas,
01:32so officials could simply ignore them.
01:35Senate Republicans block the rest.
01:37Now you remember even Treasury Secretary Scott Besson has said before
01:41that a Democratic House could do very little to stop the agenda.
01:45Now, if we were to look at the bigger majority, it changes the mood a bit, not the maths.
01:51It means more room for defections, louder impeachment calls,
01:54and perhaps some Republicans even breaking with Trump on tariffs and the Iran war.
01:59But it's still the power to investigate, not to govern.
02:03Notice the word here, investigate.
02:06Next, we look at the more precarious situation for Trump.
02:11A 50-50 Senate still stays Republican because in the event of a tie in the Senate,
02:17Vice President J.D. Vance, in this case the Republican, breaks the ties.
02:21Now that hands the real power to a handful of senators, moderate Republicans among them.
02:26Trump can still confirm his nominees, and his tariff, immigration, and foreign policies stay largely unchecked.
02:34Now, this is where best-case scenario for Democrats, worst-case scenario for Republicans.
02:40Scenario three, where it's a Democratic sweep.
02:43Because the Senate basically decides who sits on the bench and also the cabinet.
02:48So even if it's by a slight narrow, Democratic Senate could actually block judicial nominees
02:54and delay any Supreme Court vacancy until after 2028.
02:59Expect Republicans to rush through confirmations before January 2027.
03:04Now, if we were to look at, slightly a bigger Senate majority means a clear mandate
03:09and a stronger hand in funding and debt-sealing talks.
03:12But remember, Democrats can't beat a filibuster.
03:15If you ask me what's a filibuster, it's basically a delay tactic employed in the Senate by senators
03:21where you require 60 votes to overcome a filibuster.
03:25Other than that, they also can't override vetoes, which requires two-thirds majority of both chambers,
03:31or even convict a president, in this case Trump, in an impeachment trial, which also requires two-thirds vote.
03:38Now, final scenario.
03:41Republicans keep everything.
03:43That's unlikely given how many House Republicans are vulnerable.
03:46However, not impossible.
03:48It would mean a fresh mandate for Trump's final two years, few constraints on him, and nominees moving through.
03:55Even then, the risk of shutdown or debt-sealing fight is only reduced, not removed.
04:00So the question isn't who wins.
04:03It's what winning lets them do.
04:05The House gets you subpoenas.
04:07The Senate gets you judges.
04:09Neither gets you past the veto if you don't have a supermajority.
04:12And remember, whichever way it falls, Trump is still president until 2028.
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